Gold-on-Chain at a Fibonacci Pivot: Buy the 4073 Retest for a Push Toward 4141 in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish, expecting a drift up from the 4070–4085 pivot toward 4115–4145, provided 4060 holds on dips.
• Key pivot: 4072.9 (classic daily pivot from 11/15). Price is currently hugging the 38.2% retracement and the R1 band.
• Plan: Buy the dip/retest at ~4073 with a take-profit near the 50% retracement of the late-Oct swing at ~4141. Alternate: momentum add above 4090 → 4118/4141.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and regime

• Daily structure: From Aug lows (~3320) to Oct 16 highs (~4385) was a strong impulse higher. The late-Oct pullback bottomed at ~3897 (Oct 28), then a recovery leg into mid-Nov (~4171 on Nov 12). Current consolidation sits above the 20-day mean and well above the late-Oct low—constructive for a continuation attempt.
• Higher time frame context: Price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the Aug→Oct rally (4133 and 3978, respectively), i.e., mid-retracement zone typical of healthy consolidations before trend resumption.
• Slope of averages (approx.):
  • 20D SMA ≈ 4022 (rising). Spot 4082 is above 20D—bullish short-term bias.
  • 50D SMA (approx.) near 4050–4065 and flattening to gently rising; price above/near it—neutral to slightly bullish medium-term.
  • Conclusion: Regime is consolidation within an uptrend, with price pinned near a Fibonacci pivot and above rising short-term means.

2. Momentum suite

• RSI(14) daily (inferred): Mid-50s after cooling from October overbought. Neutral-bullish; room to push higher before overbought risks resurface.
• MACD (12/26/9) (inferred): Histogram near flat; signal and fast lines converging. This typically precedes directional expansion; price location above 20D SMA biases a bullish resolve.
• Stochastic (inferred): Reset from prior highs; curling up near mid-range, supportive of a modest upside swing if price holds the pivot.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (inferred): Compressed relative to October’s surge; intraday ranges on 11/16 are narrow (c. $10). Such contraction often precedes a range expansion. Given the slight bullish tilt, a topside test is marginally favored.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (inferred): Midline ~4022; upper band estimated ~4125–4145, lower ~3900–3920. Price is above the midline and not yet crowding the upper band—room to expand higher toward 4125–4145 without immediate overbought stress.

4. Key levels and confluence

• Supports: 4060–4066 (11/14 close and S1 area), 4056 (S2), 4036 (10/30 close), 4000, 3978 (38.2% of Aug→Oct), 3965–3976 cluster, 3929 (11/4), 3897 (10/28 swing low).
• Resistances: 4081.7 (R1), 4089.3 (R2), 4106.6–4123.7 (11/10–11 closes), 4141 (50% retrace of 10/16→10/28 swing), 4163–4171 (11/12–13), 4199 (61.8%), 4224 (11/13 high), 4361–4385.
• Fibonacci mapping (late-Oct swing): From 3897 → 4385, 38.2% from the low sits ≈ 4083.6. Spot 4082 is effectively at this pivot—strong magnet/decision point. 50% ≈ 4141; 61.8% ≈ 4199.
• Classic daily pivots (based on 11/15 H/L/C ≈ 4080.48/4064.10/4074.08):
  • P ≈ 4072.9; S1 ≈ 4065.3; S2 ≈ 4056.5; R1 ≈ 4081.7; R2 ≈ 4089.3. The market has respected S1–R1 intraday; a push through R2 often invites a test of the next higher resistance cluster (4106 → 4124 → 4141).
• Anchored VWAP (approx.): From the 10/28 low, the aVWAP likely resides ~4055–4065 area given subsequent path—overlaps with S1/S2. That confluence strengthens the 4056–4066 demand zone.

5. Ichimoku (conceptual)

• Tenkan near spot (fast mean reversion around 4078–4085), Kijun likely in the 4020–4040 zone; price above Kijun and near Tenkan suggests balanced-to-bullish. Cloud thickness post-rally tends to support dips while capping fast spikes; immediate bias is a controlled grind up, not a breakout run, unless 4124/4141 give way.

6. Candles and microstructure

• Daily: Nov 14 produced a high-volume down day with a close at 4064; Nov 15 a small-bodied stabilization near the pivot; current session is a narrow-range coil around 4075–4082—typical for basing before a directional attempt.
• Intraday (11/16): A sequence of higher lows off 4071–4073 with repeated probes of 4080–4082 shows buyers defending the pivot. The failure to break down on multiple tests despite low volatility is mildly bullish.

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Post-correction basing above the 20D mean with a horizontal resistance shelf 4106–4124 resembles a developing range-bound accumulation. A measured move from the current $10–$15 hourly coil supports a test of R2 then the 4106/4124 shelf.
• Elliott-style read (lightweight): Late-Oct low may have ended an ABC corrective leg; current price action could be a basing wave before a push toward the 50–61.8% retrace band (4141–4200). Invalidation: clean break and acceptance below 4036.

8. Volume/participation

• Early–mid Nov saw substantial volume on up legs (Nov 10–13), then heavy but controlled selling on Nov 14. Stabilization with lighter volume since suggests distribution has eased; demand near 4060–4075 appears active.

9. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base-hold and drift higher (primary, ~55%): Hold 4060–4073; push above 4089 (R2) → tag 4106–4118; extension to 4133–4141 if momentum improves late session.
• Range bind (secondary, ~35%): 4060–4090 chop persists; repeated fades near 4089/4090; eventual close near 4080–4090.
• Bearish break (risk, ~10%): Lose 4060 decisively → 4056/4036 sweep; if 4036 fails, air-pocket toward 4000. This would postpone the upside attempt.

10. Trade plan and risk framing (tactical)

• Entry: Prefer buy-the-dip/retest at the daily pivot P ≈ 4072.9 (confluent with intraday demand and aVWAP band). If no dip, alternative momentum add on sustained prints above 4089.3 (R2) with follow-through confirmation.
• Target: 4141 (50% retrace of 10/28→10/16 swing), in line with upper BB vicinity and prior shelf below 4146. Secondary stretch 4163–4171 if momentum accelerates, but 24h window favors 4118–4141 as realistic.
• Invalidation/stop (for planning): Below 4046 (beneath S2 band and October 30 close), recognizing that a close below 4036 would change the daily bias to neutral/bearish.
• Position sizing: Favor moderate size due to low intraday volatility and nearby invalidation; add only on strength above 4089 with tight trail.

Bottom line

• Confluence at 4070–4085 (Fibo 38.2% pivot, daily pivot P, aVWAP band, above 20D SMA) tilts the 24h outlook marginally bullish.
• Expectation: Gradual grind to 4106–4124 with a decent probability to tag 4141 if R2 (4089) converts to support.