XAUT Breaks Out: Buy the Pivot Dip for a Run at 4,230–4,255

Summary view

• Instrument: Tether Gold (XAUT)
• Current price: 4205.45
• Time horizon: next 24 hours
• Core view: Bullish continuation following a clean breakout above the 4150–4175 supply zone, but with momentum nearing overbought on daily; expect a shallow pullback toward the daily pivot before another push into 4230–4255.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher time frame (daily): Clear uptrend since the late-October low (3964 on 10/28). Sequence of higher lows since 11/17 (4014 → 4048 → 4129 intraday 11/27), and higher highs post 11/24 (4122 → 4152 → 4205). Structure is bullish with price now back above all key short-/mid-term moving averages.
• Intermediate structure: A mid-October spike to 4385/4390 (10/16) was followed by a corrective leg into 10/28. Since then, price built a base in 3950–4120 and broke topside this week. The 4105–4125 zone that capped price through mid-November now acts as a reclaimed support shelf.
• Intraday (hourly) microstructure 11/28: Steady staircase from ~4166 to a session high 4213.94, modest pullback to 4205 into the print. Dips were shallow and bought; pullback breadth suggests buy-the-dip behavior persists.

2. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• SMA20 (approx): ~4094.5. Price is +2.7% above, signaling near-term bullish bias.
• SMA50 (computed from last 50 closes): ~4085.7. Price is +2.9% above, reinforcing medium-term uptrend alignment.
• Dynamic slope: 20>50 and both are rising after curling up post-consolidation. No bearish MA crossovers on watch; the last meaningful pullback held above the rising 50-SMA cluster.
• Read: MA stack supports trend continuation; distance to MAs isn’t extreme, reducing blow-off risk but allowing for small mean reversion.

3. Momentum diagnostics

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~69.4. Near overbought, but not extreme; consistent with strong trend. Expect shallow dips rather than deep reversals while RSI stays 60–75.
• Stochastic: In the 80–90 band on daily; on hourly, cycling down after tagging overbought, which typically fuels a minor dip into the prior breakout area before the next leg.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive and rising; histogram expanding since the 11/24 breakout above ~4120. On hourly, MACD is extended yet not rolling over decisively.
• Rate of Change (ROC 10): Positive, confirming impulse; not parabolic.
• CCI (20): Likely +100 to +150 range; confirms momentum but warns of small pullback risk.
• ADX (14): Rising toward mid-20s, implying trend strength building; DI+ above DI−.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~65–70. Implies a typical day range of roughly ±70. Today’s H-L = ~68, aligning with ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~4094; upper band ~4214 (est., using recent SD). Price is sitting right under/near the upper band; common behavior is a pause or small mean reversion to the mid/upper band channel before continuation.
• Keltner Channels: Price hugging the upper KC on daily; hourly is extended but within typical channel limits.

5. Volume and participation

• Volume picked up on upside sessions (11/24–11/26) and remained constructive into 11/28, a sign of accumulation on strength. No distribution day signature near today’s close.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending higher, consistent with net demand during the breakout.

6. Key levels, supports/resistances, pivots

• Today’s OHLC: H 4213.94 / L 4146.08 / C 4205.45
• Classic daily pivot set for next session:
  • Pivot P ≈ 4188.49
  • R1 ≈ 4230.90
  • R2 ≈ 4256.35
  • S1 ≈ 4163.04
  • S2 ≈ 4120.63
• Horizontal zones:
  • Resistance: 4227 (61.8% retrace of 4390→3964), 4235–4240 (late-Oct micro supply), 4255–4260 (pivot R2/round cluster), 4275–4280 (measured objective zone).
  • Support: 4186–4192 (intraday VWAP/pivot confluence), 4163–4170 (S1/tenkan approximations), 4150–4155 (prior pivot and yesterday’s supply flip), 4120–4125 (neckline zone), 4105 (structural pivot), 4060–4080 (SMA50 neighborhood).

7. Pattern recognition

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (daily):
  • Left shoulder ~4061 (10/26), head ~3964 (10/28), right shoulder ~4014 (11/17).
  • Neckline ~4115–4125. Break and close above on 11/24 validated the pattern.
  • Measured move target: 4120 + (4120−3964) ≈ 4276. This remains open and aligns with an upside objective into early next week; may partially realize in the next 24–48 hours.
• Rising channel (since 11/17): Lows stepping up 4014 → 4048 → 4129 (11/27 intraday), highs 4152 → 4214. Price mid/upper channel now; expect a tag of channel top in 4235–4255 if dips are bought.
• Candles: 11/27 small-bodied consolidation near highs; 11/28 expansion candle closing high-ish, a trend day. No topping wick excess.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 4390 (10/16) → 3964 (10/28) retraces:
  • 50% ≈ 4177 (broken and held).
  • 61.8% ≈ 4227 (first notable fib resistance above). Price is just below—expect some friction.
  • 78.6% ≈ 4298 (secondary upside in coming sessions if momentum persists).
• Local swing 4014 (11/17) → 4214 (11/28):
  • 23.6% ≈ 4166
  • 38.2% ≈ 4137
  • 50% ≈ 4114 Local dip into 4186–4166 would represent a shallow wave-4-type retrace before a push to new local highs.

9. Ichimoku view (qualitative)

• Price above cloud; span A above span B. Tenkan > Kijun and both rising. Kumo ahead is thin, suggesting low immediate overhead friction. Any dip towards Kijun (~4165–4175 estimate) likely finds buyers.

10. VWAPs and mean-reversion anchors

• Today’s session VWAP (intraday): approx 4190–4195 cluster; aligns with daily pivot P 4188.5 and recent micro shelf at 4186–4192. High-confidence intraday demand zone.
• Anchored VWAP from 11/17 low points near mid-4180s/low-4190s; adds confluence.

11. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From 11/24 breakout: impulsive structure likely in minor wave 3 finishing near 4214 high, with a wave-4 dip to ~4180–4190 possible, then a wave-5 push to 4235–4250. Larger degree objective aligns with 4270s (IHS target).

12. Risk diagnostics

• Overbought risk: RSI ~69 suggests shallow dips; topping signals absent.
• Mean reversion risk: Price near upper Bollinger; a probe into pivot P (4188) or S1 (4163) wouldn’t break trend.
• Invalidation for bullish intraday thesis: Sustained trade below 4160 would open 4120 retest and delay the breakout continuation.

13. Scenario analysis (24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early pullback into 4186–4192 (pivot/VWAP), then rally to R1 4231 with extension toward 4250–4256 (R2). Close in 4225–4245 range.
• Pullback first (30%): Deeper flush to 4163 (S1) +/- 5, then squeeze to 4230; rangey close 4205–4220.
• Bear surprise (15%): Break 4160, momentum stalls; drift to 4120–4135 (S2/38.2% retrace). Probability lower given breadth and reclaimed neckline.

14. Confluence summary

• Bullish: MA stack (20>50), MACD expansion, inverse H&S active, reclaimed neckline 4120, higher highs/lows, ADX rising, intraday demand at 4186–4192.
• Cautionary: Near upper Bollinger and 61.8% retrace at 4227; daily RSI approaching 70.
• Net: Buy-the-dip is favored; fade strength only if 4230–4235 rejects with breadth deterioration, which isn’t evident yet.

Trade plan (next 24h)

• Bias: Buy on dip into pivot/VWAP.
• Entry: 4188.5 (limit) at/near the daily pivot; acceptable band 4186–4192.
• Profit objective: 4253.0 (below R2 4256 to increase fill probability; aligns with channel top/extension zone).
• Suggested protective stop (not required, but prudent): 4162.5 (below S1 and tenkan/anchored VWAP), risk ~26 points; reward ~64.5 points; R:R ≈ 2.5:1.
• Alternate management: If momentum stalls at R1 4231, consider partials; hold runner toward 4253.

Bottom line

• Expect a shallow dip to the pivot (≈4188.5), then a push through 4227 toward 4231 and possibly 4250–4256. The inverse H&S target at 4270s remains viable beyond 24h; for the next day, a 4230–4255 test is the most probable.