Onyxcoin poised for a relief bounce: tactical long from 0.00606 toward 0.00650 within a broader downtrend

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (relief bounce) within a broader daily downtrend
• Preferred tactic: Tactical long on a pullback into 0.00603–0.00608, targeting a mean-reversion push toward 0.00645–0.00655
• Key invalidation: A decisive break and hourly close below 0.00586 (beneath today’s intraday floor and near prior liquidity sweep)

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Persistent downtrend from mid-August highs (~0.013) to early-November capitulation (low ~0.00571 on Nov 4). Lower highs/lows intact. Current price 0.0061177 trades below the 20/50/100 SMAs (bearish regime). Structure favors selling rallies on multi-day horizon, but tactical long bounces are frequent near oversold extremes.
• Intermediate swing (Nov 4 low 0.00571 → Nov 10 high 0.007288): Subsequent retracement returned price into the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci buy zone (0.006314–0.006048), where buyers are defending. Today’s action sits mid-zone at ~0.00612.
• Intraday (hourly): Since the early session, higher lows emerged (0.00592 → 0.00601 → 0.00603 → 0.00611) and a higher high printed (0.00626 at 20:00), establishing a short-term up-structure inside the larger downtrend.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely mid-30s to low-40s following the multi-week decline and recent rebound failure—near oversold but stabilizing. This supports mean reversion upside, not a strong trend reversal yet.
• RSI(14) hourly: Recovering through 50 on the latest impulse to 0.00626 and consolidating slightly above neutral; suggests room for a second leg higher if pullbacks hold above 0.00600.
• MACD daily: Below zero (bearish regime) but histogram contraction vs. early-November suggests waning downside momentum; risk of a daily bullish cross grows if price can base for 1–3 sessions.
• MACD hourly: Near or slightly above the signal after a minor bull cross—supports a near-term upswing continuation toward resistance (0.00630–0.00650) if dips are bought.
• Stochastic daily: Oversold and curling up—typical setup for a 1–3 day bounce.
• DMI/ADX daily: -DI > +DI but converging; ADX easing from elevated levels—trend fatigue consistent with a countertrend recovery attempt.

3. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: 20SMA ~0.00733; lower band estimated near ~0.00630. Price is hovering just under to around the lower band. A close back inside bands typically precedes a push toward the 20SMA; near-term target segment often lies ~mid-band first (around ~0.0068), but within 24h a pragmatic target is 0.00645–0.00655.
• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 0.00040–0.00050. A typical 24h swing suggests an upside envelope to ~0.00650–0.00660 from current and a downside envelope to ~0.00570–0.00580.

4. Key support and resistance (confluence)

• Supports:
  • 0.00571: Nov 4 swing low (major).
  • 0.00588–0.00605: Today’s intraday shelf and 78.6% fib proximity; multiple hourly lows printed here—buyer defense zone.
  • 0.00631: 61.8% retracement of Nov 4–Nov 10 upswing.
• Resistances:
  • 0.00620–0.00626: Intraday supply (today’s spike high 0.0062606), R1 pivot cluster.
  • 0.00643–0.00650: Daily pivot R2 (~0.006429) plus round-number and prior congestion; initial profit-taking zone.
  • 0.00668: 38.2% fib of the Nov swing and mid-BB approach.
  • 0.00697–0.00729: Prior swing high cluster; unlikely in next 24h unless a momentum surprise.

5. Pivot points (Classic, using Nov 14 H/L/C: 0.006241/0.005793/0.005908)

• P = 0.005981
• R1 = 0.006168, S1 = 0.005720
• R2 = 0.006429, S2 = 0.005533
• Today’s 0.00626 high pierced above R1 and respected the zone; next logical magnet on sustained strength is R2 ~0.00643 (aligns with our 0.00645–0.00650 target band).

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan (~0.0065–0.0066 est) > price; Kijun (~0.008+ est) far above. Bearish regime persists. However, price attempting to revert toward Tenkan is consistent with relief bounce thesis. Chickou remains below price and cloud; no trend reversal signal yet—only a tactical mean reversion setup.

7. Fibonacci structure (Nov 4 L to Nov 10 H)

• 61.8%: 0.006314 (retested); 78.6%: 0.006048 (tagged/held). Current sits between them—classic PRZ for a bounce. Targets of a reaction often include 50% (0.006499) and 38.2% (0.006685); we anchor TP near the first (0.00650) for realistic 24h capture.

8. Volume, OBV, and liquidity

• Volume has normalized lower versus October’s spike—seller exhaustion context. OBV on a daily basis appears to be basing; on hourly, mild uptick during pushes to 0.00620–0.00626. The 20:00 hour saw a notable volume pop with rejection shy of 0.00626—supply exists but wasn’t overwhelming. A second attempt after a shallow dip often breaks marginally higher toward 0.00630–0.00645.
• Visible range HVN (approx.): 0.00615–0.00625 hosts a volume node intraday, explaining chop; a clean reclaim and hold above ~0.00626 would likely accelerate to ~0.00643–0.00650.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Possible bullish basing within a descending channel: Intraday higher lows and a fresh higher high hint at a micro time-frame trend change. Daily still bearish, so treat as countertrend rally.
• Bullish divergence risk: While price marginally undercut prior closes (Nov 14 ~0.005908), momentum metrics did not make proportionally new lows—indicative of a positive momentum divergence.
• Harmonic flavor: A potential bullish Bat/Alt Bat completion region around 0.00605–0.00590 lines up with today’s defended lows—supporting the bounce thesis.

10. Mean-reversion and statistical edges

• Z-score vs 20SMA likely ~-1.8 to -2.0 earlier; reversion probability within 1–3 sessions is elevated. For 24h horizon, a move into 0.00640–0.00655 is statistically consistent given ATR and band positioning.

11. Risk scenarios

• Bullish case (40–45%): Hold 0.00600–0.00605 on dips, reclaim 0.00626, grind to 0.00643–0.00650. Stretch to 0.00665 if momentum improves and BTC/majors are supportive.
• Base case (35–40%): Choppy range 0.00598–0.00635 with late-session push toward 0.00640; close near 0.00630–0.00645.
• Bearish case (20–25%): Fail at 0.00620–0.00626, lose 0.00600 and then 0.00588; test 0.00571 major support. Only on strong risk-off or fresh supply influx.

12. Trade plan (tactical long)

• Rationale: Confluence of fib PRZ (61.8–78.6%), lower-BB proximity, intraday higher lows/higher highs, pivot map showing room to R2, contracting daily downside momentum, and improving hourly breadth.
• Entry: Limit buy on pullback into 0.00603–0.00608 zone; optimal single price 0.00606.
• Stop (not required but recommended): 0.00584 (below today’s floor and under 78.6% fib), risking ~0.00022.
• Take-profit: 0.00650 (first objective at ~50% fib / near R2 extension), offering ~0.00044 upside from 0.00606 (≈2:1 R:R). Scale earlier at 0.00626/0.00632 if seeking partials.
• Contingency: If price impulsively breaks and holds above 0.00626 without filling the pullback, momentum entry through 0.00627–0.00629 has a similar TP 0.00650 but worsened R:R; manage with a tighter stop (e.g., 0.00603) in that scenario.

24-hour price path expectation

• Dip: 0.00603–0.00608 pullback likely as liquidity rotates.
• Push: Reclaim 0.00620–0.00626, extend toward 0.00632–0.00638.
• Target: Tag 0.00643–0.00650 area; consolidation into close around 0.00630–0.00645 if sellers reappear.

Bottom line

• Strategic trend is still down, but the evidence favors a short-term relief bounce. Execute a tactical long with disciplined risk management; target the 0.00650 area within the next 24 hours, while respecting 0.00584–0.00586 invalidation.