Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of XDC Network (XDC)

1. Trend and Price Action Analysis

Large-Scale Daily Trend (April - July 2025)

• Downtrend Mid-May to End of June: The price fell from ~$0.072 (mid-May) to a low near $0.055 (late June), establishing a bearish channel. The selloff was steep, with lower lows and lower highs, notably intensified by above-average volume in late June.
• Powerful Reversal and Uptrend Initiation (Starting Late June): Starting late June, price breaks resistance at $0.060, rallies sharply to $0.080—sizable high momentum moves, supported by the strongest volume seen YTD for XDC (70611649 units on July 14).
• Recent Pullback & Current Price: After hitting $0.084 on July 13-14, two days of consolidation/pullback formed—a classic bull flag or pennant above the former resistance ($0.075-$0.077 zone). The current price ($0.07801) is holding in the higher end of the recent range, with wicks both ways suggesting indecision, but Bulls maintain control.

Short-Term (Intraday) Structure

• Hourly Data (July 17, Last 24h): Saw a push from $0.076 to $0.0812, then gradual retrace to $0.078 (now). Last two hourly candles forming tight-bodied dojis/mini-hammers, volume slightly below the 24h max, but range contraction (volatility squeeze) after a local top—likely prepping for the next breakout move.

2. Volume Analysis

• Rally-Fueled Volume Spike (July 13-15): Sudden surge in volume with significant price appreciation ($0.070-> $0.084) confirms strong buyer conviction and accumulation pattern, not just a short squeeze.
• Dip Supported By Elevated Volume: Even during brief sell-offs, volume stays above early June averages, reinforcing that smart money is buying dips and that supply absorption is ongoing.

3. Support/Resistance Identification

• Major Supports: $0.075 (recent pullback lows); $0.072 (late June/early July prior resistance, now flipped support).
• Major Resistance: $0.0805 (minor), $0.084 (recent top), then psychological level $0.09.
• The current price is perched just above the most recently established support ($0.0775-$0.078 zone). Loss of this could target $0.075 quickly, but price structure has not broken down.

4. Indicator Suite Overview

Moving Averages

• 20DMA: Now rising steeply, has crossed above the 50DMA in early July (Golden Cross)
• 50DMA: Flattened, now also turning up
• Price is consolidating above both MAs—bullish momentum confirmed.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Daily RSI: Peaked near 73 on July 14—overbought, slumped to ~64 post-pullback, now coiling in the healthy bullish range (55-65), suggesting consolidation after an overheated move, but without a bearish divergence.
• Hourly RSI: Recently cooled off from >70 to 55-60; consolidating not trending, so the risk of sharp sell-off is low. Reset in RSI is constructive for new leg up.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Gave bullish cross in early July, histogram still positive, lines diverging. No sign of trend loss.
• Hourly MACD: Showed weak bearish cross as price pulled back, but now flattening, suggesting the small pullback is nearing end.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands expanded massively on the breakout surge; now contracting, indicating lower volatility & winding up for another larger move.
• **Price at the midpoint between upper and middle band— bullish, means room to expand again.

ATR (Average True Range) & Volatility

• ATR spiked during the parabolic surge, now declining (volatility contraction); a typical volatility squeeze. Squeezes after large uptrends often resolve in direction of the bigger trend: up.

5. Patterns and Candlestick Formations

• Bull Flag/Pennant Structure is evident in the last 3-4 days around $0.078-$0.081. Volume declining on the consolidation is text-book for a bullish continuation.
• Multiple Hammer/Doji candles on the hourly after each dip, reflecting buy-the-dip demand. No sharp, long-bodied bearish candles, and several small-bodied candles with wicks—evidence of accumulation.

6. Orderbook/Market Microstructure Factors (Inferred from Price/Volume)

• No evidence of large sellers overwhelming the bid. Every dip towards $0.0775 is bought up rapidly. Participants are likely setting buy walls around $0.0770-$0.0775.

7. Fib Retracement (From July rally)

• Push from $0.070 (July 12) to $0.084 (July 14) is the impulse leg.
  • 50% Fib retest: $0.077 – and price currently holds above it.
  • 61.8% Fib: $0.076 – deep support; wasn’t reached on pullback.
  • This affirms that $0.077 is a prime area for a high-probability long entry.

8. Fundamental Context & Sentiment (if available from technicals)

• The explosive breakout on July 13-14 was accompanied by record volume for XDC, a sign of not just traders, but possibly fresh longer-term investors or news/partnership catalyst. High base support post-move typically attracts more bulls.

9. Final Synthesis

• Higher lows, higher highs in the recent structure. Bullish Golden Cross on MAs. Pullback is shallow and orderly. Volume on consolidation down, a sign of strong hands holding. Major reversal confirmed.
• Psychological round number $0.080 will continue to act as magnet/resistance for scalp sellers, but with higher volume on moves above $0.080-$0.081, likely to break if tested again.
• Oscillators have "reset" from overbought to bullish healthy territory, providing fuel for a next leg up.
• No major sell pressure in evidence, and classical rally-pullback-continuation pattern is in force. Risk is defined: closing below $0.074 would signal failed breakout, but that's a long-shot given current structure.

Trading Signal: Buy (Long Position)

• Open Price: $0.0775 ideal (current $0.0781). Any dip to $0.0770-$0.0775 is a low-risk long entry. If aggressive, buying at market is still acceptable given uptrend structure.
• Target (Profit Close): $0.0838 (recent high just below big psychological $0.084, in front of likely major offers). Potential for overrun, but this is a solid risk-adjusted short-term target.
• Stop (for risk management): Not required for this signal, but prudent traders can use a tight stop below $0.07525.

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Predicted Movement: Expect consolidation for a few more hours, followed by a test above $0.080. If volume spikes as price reclaims $0.0805, $0.0838 can be hit within 12-24h. Risk of sharp sell-off is low, with strong dip buying evident.

Summary Table

Signal	Open	Target	Reason
Buy	$0.0775	$0.0838	Bullish pattern, volume, confirmed trend, fib, mean reversion