Tradzar
XDC Network Price Analysis Powered by AI
XDC at a Fragile Support Shelf: Bearish Retest Setup After Failed Reclaim
Market snapshot (XDC)
- Current price: $0.0364158
- Structure: Downtrend since late Nov/early Jan (from ~$0.054–0.055 highs to ~$0.036 now)
- Last daily candle (partial, 2026-02-15): O 0.037326 → H 0.037884 → L 0.036328 → C 0.036416 (bearish body, lower close)
- Intraday (hourly) behavior: Early-session strength up to ~0.03786–0.03789, then persistent fade and breakdown into ~0.03632–0.03646 range.
1) Trend & market structure (Dow Theory)
Higher timeframe (daily)
- From 2026-01-05 close ~0.05430 to 2026-02-15 close ~0.03642: clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
- The sharp selloff into 2026-02-05 low ~0.02973 was followed by a rebound (02-06 close ~0.03706), but price failed to reclaim prior breakdown areas and drifted lower again.
Intermediate structure (last ~2 weeks)
- 02-12 to 02-14 showed a short relief push (02-14 close ~0.037323), but 02-15 reversed that progress, closing back down near 0.0364.
- This looks like a bear-market rally / corrective bounce that is losing momentum.
Implication: Primary bias remains bearish unless price reclaims and holds above the key supply zone near ~0.0379–0.0384.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal + swing levels)
Near-term resistance (supply)
- 0.03732–0.03741: prior daily close/area from 02-14; now likely overhead resistance.
- 0.03788–0.03792: intraday swing high zone (02-15 hourly tops; also near 02-09 high 0.037923). Strong rejection occurred from here.
- 0.03840–0.03890: prior congestion and a common bounce/fail zone (late Jan/early Feb).
Near-term support (demand)
- 0.03632–0.03646: current intraday base (02-15 hourly lows around 0.036323; multiple hourly closes around 0.03638–0.03646).
- 0.03610–0.03613: 01-30 close ~0.03613 area (prior pivot).
- 0.03478–0.03500: 01-31 close 0.03478 and 02-11 close ~0.03497 area.
Implication: Price is sitting just above a fragile support shelf (~0.0363–0.0365). If it breaks, downside air pocket toward 0.0350 becomes likely.
3) Candlestick / price-action read
- The current daily candle is bearish and shows failure to hold early strength.
- Intraday sequence: strong push (00:00–10:00) → rollover (11:00 onward) → accelerated drop (18:00) with higher volume prints in the provided hourly feed (notably around 18:00–19:00).
Implication: This is typical of distribution near resistance, increasing probability of continuation down or at best a choppy mean-reversion that struggles under 0.0373.
4) Momentum analysis (rate-of-change logic)
Even without exact computed RSI/MACD values, momentum can be inferred:
- Daily progression from 02-06 (0.03706 close) to 02-11 (0.03497 close) shows negative drift after the rebound.
- 02-12/02-14 bounce failed to extend; 02-15 gave back most of that bounce.
Implication: Momentum is rolling over again; bulls have not demonstrated the ability to sustain higher closes.
5) Moving-average regime (qualitative)
Given the sustained decline from ~0.054 to ~0.036:
- Price is very likely below the 50-day and possibly below the 20-day as well.
- The rebound attempts have not produced a regime shift; they look like pullbacks into falling averages.
Implication: MA regime favors selling rallies (short setups near resistance) rather than buying dips.
6) Volatility & range behavior (ATR-style inference)
- The market has experienced high volatility expansion (02-05 crash to ~0.0297 then 02-06 spike high ~0.03891).
- After that, volatility compressed into a lower range (0.034–0.038).
- Today’s move: rejection from ~0.03788 to ~0.03632 shows intraday range expansion to the downside.
Implication: After a compressing bounce, downside expansion often leads to follow-through within the next session.
7) Volume / participation (contextual)
- Daily volumes were elevated during the sharp selloff (late Jan/early Feb) and the rebound day (02-06).
- Recent daily candles show moderate volume and lower prices, suggesting demand is not overwhelming supply.
- Hourly feed shows some meaningful volume during the breakdown hours.
Implication: Participation appears more aggressive on dips than on rallies → bearish leaning.
8) Pattern recognition
- Descending channel / lower-high structure since early Jan.
- The 02-06 spike resembles a capitulation + short-cover bounce, but subsequent price action resembles a bear flag / corrective channel rather than a base.
- 02-14 close near 0.03732 followed by 02-15 breakdown suggests a failed attempt to reclaim resistance.
Implication: Highest-probability pattern outcome is continuation lower unless price can reclaim ~0.0373 and then break ~0.0379 with acceptance.
9) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)
Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / drift lower
- Expect price to retest 0.03632 quickly.
- If 0.03632 fails with momentum, next magnet is 0.03610, then 0.03500.
- Likely 24h range: 0.0350–0.0373.
Bullish alternative (lower probability): mean reversion bounce
- If buyers defend 0.0363 repeatedly and reclaim 0.03732, price could squeeze toward 0.0379–0.0384.
- That zone is strong supply; odds favor rejection there unless a strong impulse candle breaks and holds.
Net expectation: Slight-to-moderate downside bias over the next 24 hours; rallies are likely to be sold under ~0.0373–0.0379.
Trade plan (direction + levels)
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Rationale: prevailing downtrend + failed reclaim of resistance + intraday distribution and breakdown from the 0.0378–0.0379 top.
Optimal open (entry)
- Prefer to short on a pullback into resistance rather than at mid-range.
- Open Price (short): $0.03730 (retest of prior support turned resistance; near 02-14 close area)
Target (take profit)
- First meaningful support below is ~0.0350.
- Close Price (take profit): $0.03505
(If price instead breaks and holds above ~0.0379–0.0380, the bearish thesis weakens materially.)