XLM: Liquidity sweep into 0.326 then mean-reversion pop toward 0.339 — tactical long setup

Stellar (XLM) — exhaustive multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24h trade plan

1. Snapshot and context

• Instrument: XLM/USD
• Current price (last print): 0.327093
• Session structure: Price has been in a short-term intraday downtrend since the morning session high around 0.3418 (1h data). We’re sitting just above a key support shelf carved post-flash-crash from 2025-10-10.
• Regime shift: On 2025-10-10 XLM put in an extreme range day (low ~0.198, close ~0.3183) with very high volume — a classic selling climax/liquidation event followed by stabilization. Since then, price rebounded to ~0.354 on 10/13, then slipped for two days to the current 0.327 area.

2. Market structure (price action) Daily

• July to early Oct: Lower highs and lower lows overall from ~0.52 down to ~0.35–0.40. The 10/10 crash extended the downtrend but produced a long lower wick (hammer-like) and a large volume spike — typical of a potential intermediate low area or at least a tradable base.
• Post-crash structure: Range-building 0.318–0.354. The 0.318–0.323 zone is demand; 0.349–0.352 is supply; mid-range friction 0.333–0.342. Hourly (most relevant for 24h)
• Sequence since 10/15 Asia/EU: Lower highs 0.3418 → 0.3399 → 0.3362 and marginal lower lows into 0.3268. We are hugging the lower end of a tight descending channel with compression near prior local support 0.326–0.327.
• Liquidity/stop clusters likely sit just below 0.3260, then 0.3230, and the large post-crash pivot close at 0.3183.

3. Key horizontal levels (confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 0.349–0.352 (daily supply zone); 0.3418 (today’s session high block); 0.3399 (intraday R); 0.3375 (daily pivot P from 10/14 close).
• Supports/demand: 0.3260–0.3270 (current shelf/intraday bid zone); 0.3230–0.3240 (daily shelf); 0.3183 (10/10 close and major post-crash pivot); 0.3105 (10/11 intraday low) as a deeper flush level.

4. Pivot/Range math (Classic floor pivots from 10/14 H/L/C)

• Prev day: H=0.352732, L=0.322316, C=0.337558
• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = 0.337535
• R1 ≈ 0.352754; S1 ≈ 0.322338
• R2 ≈ 0.367951; S2 ≈ 0.307119 Current price 0.327 is below the pivot and above S1, hovering between S1 and P. That is a mean-reversion-friendly zone, with a typical bounce objective back toward P (~0.3375) if S1 holds.

5. Fibonacci confluences

• Short swing (10/10 close 0.31831 to 10/13 high 0.35437):
  • 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.3321; 78.6% retrace ≈ 0.3260; 100% ≈ 0.3183.
  • We are trading around the 78.6% at ~0.326, a high-probability inflection/turn zone for tactical bounces.
• Larger swing (10/02 high 0.41366 to 10/10 close 0.31831):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.355; 23.6% ≈ 0.341. The 0.341 area capped today’s bounce, validating that fib as near-term resistance. Conclusion: Current price sits on 0.786 retracement support of the post-crash rebound; overhead 0.337–0.341 is fib/structural resistance.

6. Moving averages (approximations from the series)

• Daily 20SMA: drifting downward, approx mid/high 0.37s–0.38s after the Oct drop; price is well below — bearish higher timeframe regime.
• Daily 50SMA: higher still (around upper 0.39s to ~0.40) — above price; downtrend bias remains intact.
• 1h 20EMA/SMA: rolling over near 0.333–0.336; price sub-EMA implies near-term pressure but also sets up a mean-reversion target back into the 1h MA cluster if sellers tire. Read: MAs suggest trend-following shorts on rallies, but countertrend bounces are likely from deep discount zones (where we are).

7. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (1D): likely mid/upper 30s to low 40s post-crash, below the 50 midline — bearish bias but near a region where stabilization happens. No extreme oversold on daily.
• RSI (1h): hovering near or slightly below 40 earlier; brief dips likely into mid/30s on the 0.3268 test. There’s the start of a minor bullish momentum divergence potential if price retests ~0.326 with a higher RSI reading versus the prior low.
• Stochastic (1h): Oversold and attempting a curl — fits a short-term bounce scenario. Interpretation: Intraday momentum is stretched to the downside; ripe for a relief rally toward mid-band/MAs.

8. MACD

• 1D MACD below zero, bear regime; histogram contracting after the crash — selling pressure is less aggressive than on 10/10–10/11.
• 1h MACD below zero but histogram shows waning negative momentum; a signal-line cross up in the next 12–24h is plausible if 0.326 holds. Conclusion: Momentum remains negative on higher TF, but 1h is positioned for a tactical bullish cross.

9. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1h): Price is riding or piercing the lower band; band width expanded earlier and is now steady. Mean reversion to the 20MA (center band) near 0.333–0.335 is a textbook expectation after a lower-band ride, provided support isn’t lost.
• Bollinger Bands (1D): Price in the lower half of the envelope; a full reversion to the 20D mid-band (~0.38) is too ambitious for 24h, but daily band behavior favors consolidation/basing.
• ATR (1D): Elevated after 10/10; a 24h move of 0.010–0.020 remains feasible. A 0.327 → 0.339 move (~0.012) is well within daily ATR.

10. Volume analytics

• Daily: Peak volume on 10/10 (capitulation), then moderation on 10/11–10/13 rebound, and continued light volumes on pullback — net suggests sellers are not as aggressive at current levels; demand shows up below 0.323 and especially near 0.318.
• Intraday: Today’s hours show modest activity; the drop to 0.326–0.327 did not produce a new volume spike (no aggressive dump continuation), which often precedes a relief bounce.
• OBV (conceptual): Flat-to-slightly-down the last 24–48h, not confirming a waterfall — supports the basing idea.

11. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (today) likely above current price (~0.333 area). Being below VWAP flags intraday weakness but also sets a magnet for mean reversion if sellers stall.
• Anchored VWAP from 10/10 close or 10/10 selling climax would sit in the mid-0.33s after the subsequent trading — roughly in confluence with the pivot P and 1h mid-band.

12. Ichimoku (top-down)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou under price — bearish regime. Kijun flat around the ~0.395 area showing higher timeframe equilibrium far above.
• 1h: Price below a thin future cloud; potential Kumo twist setting up if price can reclaim 0.333–0.335. Tenkan/Kijun flattening just above price suggests a pullback magnet to ~0.333–0.335. Interpretation: 1h Ichimoku favors a test into baseline/resistance if 0.326 holds.

13. Elliott Wave (tactical read)

• Post 10/10: A sharp A-down (capitulation), then B-up into 0.354, and a C-like pullback now probing the 0.786 retrace. Micro counting on the 1h suggests a 5-wave drip may have completed into 0.326–0.327, opening the door for an a-b-c relief up into 0.335–0.340 over the next 24h.

14. Harmonics/patterns

• A small bullish Bat/Alt Bat zone often appears near the 0.786–0.886 retrace of the prior impulse (0.326–0.321). Our current price sits right in that PRZ (potential reversal zone). A reaction to 0.333–0.339 is typical if pattern triggers.

15. Channels and median lines

• A descending intraday channel from 0.3418 to 0.3268 remains intact. We’re at/near the lower rail. A ping to median line (~0.333) and possibly to upper rail (~0.337–0.340) is the expected move if a reversal begins.

16. Wyckoff lens

• 10/10 looks like a Selling Climax (SC) with an Automatic Rally (AR) to mid-0.34s and a Secondary Test (ST) working 0.326–0.328. A minor Spring (liquidity sweep) below 0.326, followed by a quick recovery, would fit a Phase B/C progression, targeting the AR zone (0.339–0.342) as the immediate rally cap.

17. Order blocks and fair value gaps

• Demand OB: 0.318–0.323 from post-crash basing candles; intermittent intraday demand 0.325–0.327.
• Supply OB: 0.339–0.342; higher 0.349–0.352.
• FVGs: Small intraday inefficiencies around 0.333–0.336; a bounce would naturally fill these.

18. Probabilistic 24h scenarios

• Base case (≈60%): Liquidity sweep below 0.326 into 0.324–0.326, then mean-reversion rally toward 0.333–0.339. Expect stalls near 0.337–0.339 (VWAP/pivot/mid-band confluence). Close around 0.336–0.339 if momentum holds.
• Bear case (≈30%): Clean breakdown through 0.323 opens a quick tag of 0.318–0.320. Strong buyers likely reappear near 0.318 (10/10 close). Rebounds from there still likely back to low 0.33s, but timing may extend beyond 24h.
• Bull outlier (≈10%): A straight reclaim through 0.337–0.341, testing 0.349–0.352 supply. Low probability without an external catalyst.

19. Synthesis: What matters most now

• Confluence at 0.325–0.327: 0.786 fib, intraday demand, lower channel rail, proximity to S1. Oscillators oversold on 1h; MACD histogram contracting; bands suggest reversion. Volume not confirming a new breakdown.
• Overhead magnets: 1h mid-band/EMA cluster, daily pivot P (~0.3375), and intraday resistance 0.339–0.341.
• Higher timeframe still bearish; hence this is a tactical long-within-a-downtrend, not a trend reversal call.

20. Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip (countertrend mean-reversion) with tight risk controls.
• Entry: Staggered/primary buy limit around 0.3258 to front-run the common 0.326 liquidity sweep.
• Take profit (24h): 0.3395 (just below intraday resistance 0.3399 and under today’s earlier high path). This captures the move to pivot/VWAP/upper channel.
• Optional risk parameters (not required but prudent):
  • Invalidation/stop: A firm break and 1h close below 0.323 (loss of S1 and shelf) or hard stop near 0.3215. That risks a run to 0.318.
  • If 0.3395 is reached quickly and momentum is strong, consider scaling some above 0.337 and letting a small runner attempt 0.3418, but base case exits at 0.3395 within 24h.
• Alternate plan if not filled: If price launches without dipping to 0.3258, a momentum pullback buy on reclaim-and-hold above 0.333 with target 0.339 also works, but offers a weaker R:R.

Risk notes

• This is a countertrend long within a broader daily downtrend. Keep size modest and honor invalidation.
• A break of 0.318 would degrade the base case and risk re-testing 0.310–0.312.

Bottom line

• The strongest confluence for the next 24h is a tactical long from 0.325–0.327 targeting a reversion to 0.337–0.339, with 0.3395 as an optimal TP. Structural resistance above and the broader downtrend argue against overstaying the bounce.

This is market analysis, not investment advice. Manage risk.