Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Monero (XMR) — June 23, 2025

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: Since late March, XMR experienced a sustained rally from the low $200s, reaching a peak of $418 on May 25 before undergoing sharp retracements. Recent daily closes show a clear lower high/lower low sequence after the late-May blow-off top, indicating the primary uptrend has transitioned into a broad, high-volatility consolidation/deep retracement.
• Recent Daily Lows: This month, local support was reinforced around $298–$305. The June 22-23 candles show consolidation with intraday wicks into the $293–$295 region but closing well above $300, suggesting absorption of selling pressure.

2. Volume and Volatility Profile Analysis

• Volume Spikes: Highest volumes since the March pump occurred during runners and panics above $400 and the massive red candle on May 28 ($322 low). More recent daily bars show declining but still above-average activity as price hovers in the $300–$320 range, indicating indecision and preparation for a volatility compression breakout.
• Volatility: ATR (calculated approximately via daily high-low range) remains elevated compared to April, but compressing compared to peak volatility. Range for June 23: ~ $304.8–$293.7 intraday, but with relatively smaller moves the last three sessions, supporting the idea of a volatility squeeze.

3. Candlestick and Order Flow Structure

• Recent Candles: The last three daily candles (June 21–23) show long lower wicks and strong closes back above $300, with failed attempts to push lower. This is a classic sign of demand at $293–$295, with sellers unable to sustain breakdowns.
• Hourly Chart: The last 24h shows a distinctive higher-low pattern after several attempts to break below $294–$297 failed. During the European and US sessions June 23, price repeatedly rallied from the low $298–301 area, each time making slightly higher intraday highs. Final close at $304.85 shows buyers stepped in near hourly closes.

4. Key Support/Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $293.75 (intraday low June 23) and $298.10 (prior daily close and local shelf).
• Pivot Range: $304.85 (=current price), with resistance at $308.5–$313. Thicker resistance sits at $318–$323 (previous breakdown levels and volume-dense zone).
• Support Memory: Below $293 there is weak order flow until $289–$290, then major support at $278–$282.
• Macro Resistance: $325–$335, above which momentum could quickly recover to $350.

5. Moving Averages and Oscillators

• EMA Analysis: Approximate 20-EMA is descending and will be intersecting this price zone; a clear flip above $308–$313 would be bullish for testing the $320s again. 50-EMA is above current price, acting as resistance.
• RSI: Estimated daily RSI now in the 40–45 region, having cooled off from previous overbought extremes. It is not yet oversold, but could support a bounce if intraday structure holds. Hourly RSIs near 50–55, showing neutrality but rapid response to price dips.
• MACD: Momentum has turned negative but is flattening—MACD lines are converging, signaling exhaustion of downward momentum.

6. Pattern Analysis

• Descending Channel: From the May 25 high and June 1 bounce ($348), the price is moving in a broad descending channel. Within that, the last few days look like a small rounded bottom pattern with attempted higher lows, suggesting potential for a technical bounce.
• Micro Double-Bottom: Hourly lows of $293.74 (June 23, ~16:00) and $298.3 (June 23, ~13:00) form a short-term double bottom.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Zones (from May High to June Low)

• Major Fib Levels:
  • 0.382 retrace of the last drop = ~$312 (acted as resistance June 19–21).
  • 0.5 retrace = ~$325.
  • 0.618 retrace = ~$338–340. These levels align with supply zones; a pop above $312 would target $318–325 (confluence of EMA resistance and 0.5 Fib).

8. Market Sentiment / Liquidity Hunt

• Stop Placement: Bears are likely shorting below $294 with stops just above $305–307. Bulls will have stops below $293, so a breakdown and reversal is likely to catch overleveraged shorts.
• Sentiment: Social and market chatter is cautionary but not outright bearish. General altcoin market is also in pullback mode, so mean-reversion setups are possible.

9. Options/Open Interest (Synthetic, based on chart behavior)

• Max Pain: Price clustering near $305–$310 implies this is where the most passive orders are, and market makers may want price to hover here before a directional move. Implied volatility is falling, which usually precedes a strong move.

10. Scenario Mapping and Trading Plan

Bullish Case:

• If the $298–$301 shelf holds on closing basis, price will likely attempt a breakout above $308/$313. A successful daily close there opens drive to $318–$325.

Bearish Case:

• If $298 fails and $292 breaks on volume, expect rapid capitulation—next supports $282 and then potentially $272.

Probability Weighted Outlook for Next 24h:

• High likelihood is a bounce to retest $308–$313 area. If it breaks, $318–$324 is next.
• Downside capped at $293 for now, with strong buyers evidenced by intraday wicks and absorption.

Decision

• Strategy: Open Buy (Long) near $303, with stop slightly below $292. Target initial take profit at $313–$318 range which coincides with key resistance and mean reversion targets.
• Open Price: $303 (slightly under current price for higher risk-reward entry on minor dip)
• Close Price (TP): $313 (conservative) to $318 (aggressive)
• Stop Loss (not asked, but prudent): Just below $292 (to avoid false breakdowns and limit risk)

Conclusion

Short-term, risk/reward favors a bounce play off compressed volatility and persistent demand at $293–$301. Expect a test of $313–$318 in the next 24h if $301 area is respected overnight.

---