Short the Retest: XMR’s Intraday H&S and Shooting-Star Rejection Point to a 315 Mean Reversion

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical breakdown for XMR/USD over the next 24 hours

Context and market structure

• Instrument: Monero (XMR)
• Current price: 323.18
• Today’s range (intraday 2025-10-23): High 339.49, Low 311.11, Close 323.18
• Recent regime: Two-week recovery off 291–305 support into the 333–346 resistance band, with repeated failures near 339–346. Volatility elevated but compressing relative to the 10-10 shock day.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily structure: Since 10-10 capitulation wick to 268.75 and a swift reclaim above 300, price carved a rising but choppy channel. Today printed a long upper wick rejection at 339.5 (beneath 10-09 high ~346), closing well below the session VWAP. That candle is a textbook near-resistance shooting-star/upper-shadow rejection.
• Lower-timeframe (hourly) sequence (10-23): Strong impulse 09:00–12:00 to 333–339, then distribution and roll-over: 12:00 failure to hold >334, 13:00–16:00 lower highs 334 → 328 → 326, then push down to 319; late-session bounce capped around 324. This draws a clear intraday head-and-shoulders: L-Shoulder ~333, Head ~339.5, R-Shoulder ~334, neckline ~326, broken and retested (14:00–15:00 ~326). This typically projects to the 318–315 zone on follow-through.
• Market context: Repeated supply absorption near 333–346 without breakout suggests overhead inventory. Buyers still defend 315–318, but the most recent attempt was rejected decisively.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Resistance: 333.0–334.5 (intraday supply), 338.0–341.0 (R1/past highs), 345–346 (cycle high and Donchian 20D high)
• Pivot (classic daily): P ≈ 324.59 (H+L+C)/3 = (339.49+311.11+323.18)/3
• Supports: 321.0–322.0 (38.2% retrace cluster), 318.5 (intraday congestion), 315.3–315.6 (50% Fib of 291.23→339.49 swing), 309.7–310.0 (S1 / 61.8% Fib ~309.7), 305 (daily base), 294–298 (major shelf)
• Fibonacci (swing 291.23 low 10-17 to 339.49 high 10-23; range 48.26):
  • 23.6%: 328.09 (was retested from below and sold)
  • 38.2%: 321.06 (near current price)
  • 50%: 315.36 (prime mean-reversion target)
  • 61.8%: 309.70 (deeper flush target)

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA10 (approx): ~309.6 (price above)
• SMA20 (approx): ~307–310 (price above)
• SMA50 (approx): ~292–295 (rising; price well above)
• Bias: Medium-term bullish above rising 50DMA, but short-term (24h) tactically bearish given rejection at upper band and failure to hold above intraday pivot/VWAP.
• EMAs (12/26) qualitative: 12EMA > 26EMA on daily (positive), but hourly 12EMA curling under 26EMA after neckline break—supports a pullback.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI14 (daily, est.): 55–60 and rolling over from the high 60s after failure at resistance—room to revert to midline without breaking trend.
• RSI (hourly): Fell from overbought into the mid-40s/50s; rallies into 55–60 likely sold while below 333.
• Stochastics (daily/hourly): Crossed down from overbought; favors short-term mean reversion downward.
• MACD (daily): Positive but histogram contracting (bearish momentum divergence vs Oct 2/9 highs). Hourly MACD flipped negative at the H&S neckline break.
• DMI/ADX (daily, qualitative): ADX ~20–25, DI+ still above DI− but converging; momentum trend moderating—typical of range highs.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR14 (daily, est.): ~22. Today’s range ~28.4, confirming active yet normalizing conditions. A 24h expected move of roughly ±0.9–1.2×ATR implies 310–335 as a high-probability envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~307–310; upper band ~338–341 (pierced intraday); price mean-reverting back inside bands—classic sell-the-fade signal post upper-band tag.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Price tagged outer channel and reverted back within; supports a downward drift toward the middle channel (315–318).
• Donchian (20D): Upper ~346. Failure to break/hold above signals continuation of range.

6. Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Session VWAP (approx, hour-weighted with volumes concentrated 09:00–12:00 at 333–337): VWAP likely ~330–332. Close at 323 < VWAP: sellers control end-of-day tape.
• Volume: Elevated during the upthrust and subsequent reversal (distribution signature), with late-session volumes smaller on bounces—indicative of weak demand into resistance.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend since 10-17 but plateaued today; a flat/down OBV with price failing at resistance hints at supply outweighing incremental demand near 330+.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price above cloud; Tenkan likely ~317–319; Kijun ~306–308; Span A ~305–310. Post-rejection, a Tenkan pullback (318-ish) then Kijun test (306–308) are common. Over 24h, a Tenkan/Kijun mean-reversion toward 315–318 is favored.

8. Market geometry and patterns

• Intraday Head-and-Shoulders: Neckline ~326 broken; measured move to 318–315 aligns with Fib 50% and prior demand.
• Double-top risk: 10-09 ~346 vs today ~339.5 is a lower high, not a double-top confirmation; still, it validates the 339–346 supply zone.
• Regression channel (last 20 sessions): Slight positive slope (+0.8 to +1.2/day). Price now near the upper half, increasing mean-reversion odds.

9. Pivot math for next session planning

• Classic pivots from today: P ≈ 324.59, R1 ≈ 338.08, S1 ≈ 309.70, R2 ≈ 352.97, S2 ≈ 296.21. Current price below P → bearish bias until reclaimed. Short setups favored below 324.6 with 326–328 as optimal sell zone on a retest.

10. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Retest 326–328 (failed H&S neckline retest), roll over toward 315–316 (50% Fib) with intraday pause at 321–322. Close near 315–318.
• Bear extension (20%): Momentum accelerates through 315; tests 310–311 (S1/61.8% Fib). Would require broader risk-off (e.g., BTC/crypto complex selling).
• Bull invalidation (25%): Strong reclaim of 333 (VWAP band), squeeze to 339–341; only a daily close above 341–346 would re-open breakout path to 353–366 (R2/R3).

11. Risk management and execution plan

• Thesis: Short-term tactical short within a medium-term uptrend, targeting mean reversion to 315 area.
• Optimal entry: 326.8 (into supply/neckline retest confluence: 23.6% Fib 328.1; pivot P 324.6; neckline 326). If price gaps down, prefer patience for a bounce to 325–327 before engaging.
• Stop (for planning only; not part of requested fields): 329.8–333.5 depending on risk tolerance. Conservative stop above 333.5 (prior supply) gives more room; tighter tactical stop above 329.8 improves R:R.
• Take-profit target (24h): 315.4 (50% Fib of swing) as base TP. Stretch TP: 310.0 if momentum accelerates.
• R:R estimate: Entry 326.8, TP 315.4 → +11.4; tight stop 329.8 → -3.0; R:R ≈ 3.8:1. With conservative stop 333.5 (−6.7), R:R ≈ 1.7:1 but with lower stop-out probability.

12. Indicator consensus and conclusion

• Bearish short-term signals: Intraday H&S break; shooting-star daily under major resistance; price below session VWAP; RSI rolling over; MACD histogram contracting; rejection at upper Bollinger; below daily pivot; supply clearly active in 333–341 band.
• Bullish medium-term backdrop remains (price above 20/50DMA, cloud), but next 24 hours skew to downside mean reversion.
• Net: Favor a Sell (Short) on a bounce into 326–328, targeting 315–316 over the next 24 hours.

24-hour price path forecast

• Expected path: 323 → 326–328 retest → fade to 318 → 315–316. Risk: reclaim and hold above 333 invalidates near-term short and reopens 339 test.

Actionable plan

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Open (limit): 326.80
• Close (take profit): 315.40
• Note: If entry not triggered and price breaks under 318 without a retest, consider passing or waiting for a weak bounce to 321–323 for a lower-quality entry. If price reclaims 333 on strong volume, abandon the short bias.