XMR at the Pivot: Buy the S1 Pullback for a Rotation Toward 344–346

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a defined range; buy the pullback into S1/volume-node support and target a rotation back toward the pivot/upper band cluster.
• Expected range (24h): 330.5 – 345.5 (≈ ±0.9–1.1x 14D ATR fraction for one session); path of least resistance is a bounce from 334–336 toward 343–346 if 330.5 holds.
• Key levels: S2 330.5 • S1 335.6 • Pivot 343.1 • R1 348.1 • 20SMA 316.7 • Recent swing high 351.7.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Since the 10/17 low (291.23), XMR staged a strong markup to 10/26 high (351.69). Pullback on 10/27–10/28 is so far shallow and orderly, preserving higher-lows structure above 10/24 swing low (~324.2) and well above 10/20–10/22 balance (~310–312). Structure remains bullish unless 330–329 breaks decisively.
• Today (10/28): Lower high vs 10/27, intraday drift from 345.4 to 333.7 then a settle at 336.32, essentially tagging classic S1 (335.6) and finding initial demand.
• Hourly microstructure: Series of lower highs from the Europe/US session, but with responsive buying near 333–336. The sequence resembles a bull flag/pullback within a higher timeframe uptrend.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 316.67 (computed), price at 336.32 is +6.2% above: uptrend intact.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 300–305 after months of basing around 260–300 and October breakout; price well above: positive intermediate trend.
• EMAs (approx): 9D EMA ~ 328–332, 21D EMA ~ 315; price above both, consistent with pullback-in-uptrend.
• Hourly 200-EMA (approx) likely 338–339; price slightly below → explains intraday headwind but not trend change on daily.

Interpretation: Higher timeframe trend is up; intraday weakness is a mean-reverting pullback toward support rather than a breakdown (unless 330 fails).

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) Daily (approx) in high-50s/low-60s after cooling from near-overbought on 10/26; suggests momentum still positive but not stretched.
• Stochastic Daily: Rolling down from overbought, typical of a healthy pullback; not yet oversold.
• Hourly RSI hovering mid-40s to low-50s through NY session, showing intraday pressure but divergence potential near 333–336.
• MACD Daily: Above zero, histogram contracting → momentum pause but trend remains positive. Potential mild bearish divergence vs 10/26, addressed by current pullback.

Interpretation: Momentum is consolidating rather than reversing; room exists for a rebound toward the daily pivot zone.

4. Volatility and envelopes

• ATR(14) Daily (est) ≈ 18–20. Today’s high-low (~11.7) sits inside 1x ATR; room for a 6–10 point continuation move either side into tomorrow.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid ≈ 316.7; UB ≈ 346–347; LB ≈ 286–287. Price rejected near the upper band zone on 10/26–10/27; now rebalancing toward mid/upper-middle. Current 336 sits comfortably between mid and UB; mean-reversion favors a tag back toward 343–346 if support holds.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 1.5xATR): Middle ~316, upper ~343–352 (depending on ATR); price near the mid-to-upper zone; bounces toward upper KC are common after shallow dips in uptrends.
• Donchian 20D: High 351.7, Low 291.2, Mid ≈ 321.5. Price above mid → bullish regime; a dip to 330–328 remains a higher-low region relative to the Donchian mid.

5. Volume, flow, positioning

• Volume expansion on the 10/1–10/9 breakout and again 10/23–10/26 markup suggests strong sponsorship of the up leg; the last two sessions show orderly distribution rather than panic.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): High-volume nodes around 330–333 and 322–329; low-volume pocket 340–345. This explains: pullbacks tend to catch bids in the 330s and face chop near 343–345 unless momentum is strong. A bounce from 335 into 343 can be brisk.
• OBV: Uptrend from 10/18 into 10/26; slight roll-off last two days (normal distribution post-run).
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Still positive on a multi-day basis, with easing inflow consistent with consolidation.
• VWAP (session/intraday): Price spent time below intraday VWAP during US hours, confirming intraday sellers; but proximity to S1/volume-node favors responsive buyers.

Interpretation: Demand pockets cluster at 333–336 and 329–331; supply appears around 343–346 and 348–352. Expect responsive buying at S1, rotation toward pivot.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price above cloud; Tenkan above Kijun with some flattening; Kijun likely in 314–318 area (confluent with 21EMA/Donchian mid). Chikou above price. Bullish but pausing.
• 1H/4H: Price likely testing/below Tenkan and flirting with Kijun; an intraday Kijun reclaim often catalyzes a push toward the daily pivot zone.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 10/17 low 291.23 → 10/26 high 351.69 (range 60.46):
  • 23.6%: 351.69 − 14.27 ≈ 337.42 (today’s settle ~336.3 is right at this shallow retrace)
  • 38.2%: 351.69 − 23.09 ≈ 328.60 (next strong support cluster with volume node)
  • 50%: 321.46; 61.8%: 314.33.
• Interpretation: Current pullback sits between 23.6% and 38.2%, i.e., classic shallow retracement in a strong trend. If 335–336 gives way, 329–330 is a high-probability response zone.

8. Pivot levels (Classic, using 10/27 H/L/C: 350.493/337.973/340.693)

• Pivot (P) ≈ 343.053
• R1 ≈ 348.133; R2 ≈ 355.573
• S1 ≈ 335.613; S2 ≈ 330.533
• Today traded from ~345 to ~333, currently just above S1; mean reversion pullbacks commonly rotate back to P the next session if S1 holds into the close.

9. Candles and patterns

• Daily: 10/26 strong up candle; 10/27 small-bodied consolidation; 10/28 red day with lower high yet defended S1 → a two-day pullback/harami-style digestion, often resolved with a bounce if key support holds.
• Intraday: Multiple rejections above 344–345 and demand emergence 333–336 → classic range behavior centered on pivots and bands.

10. Regression and mean reversion

• 20D regression slope positive; price z-score vs 20SMA: (336.3−316.7)/~15 ≈ +1.3 → stretched but not extreme; implies pullback may stabilize and rotate rather than unwind fully to the mean.

11. Wyckoff lens

• Phase: Post-markup automatic reaction and secondary test near S1; no signs yet of distribution (no upthrust after distribution, no significant supply spike). Holding 330–329 keeps the bullish campaign intact; a break below would open a deeper test to 321–318 (Kijun/50%).

12. Scenario mapping (24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 333–336 (S1/23.6% fib) → rotate to 341–343 (Pivot) with extension attempts toward 345–346 if momentum improves.
• Bear case (25%): Lose 335 → probe 330–331 (S2/38.2% fib/volume node); buyers defend, late bounce toward 338–341 into close of window.
• Bull extension (20%): Immediate reclaim 339–341 → test pivot 343 quickly, press to 346–348 (R1/UB cluster). Requires stronger tape and better breadth.

13. Trade plan and risk

• Edge: Buy the dip into S1/volume node for a rotation to Pivot/upper band cluster.
• Invalidation: A decisive hourly/4h close below 330 (S2/Fib 38.2%) turns the short-term tape neutral-to-bearish and risks a slide to 321–318.
• Risk control (suggested, not part of order fields): Stop ~329.8; Take-profit ~344.8 first target; partials at 342.9 (Pivot) prudent.
• R:R from 335.7→344.8 with stop 329.8 ≈ 9.1 up / 5.9 down ≈ 1.5:1, improving if you scale out at Pivot.

Conclusion

• The higher timeframe uptrend remains intact. Today’s pullback located price precisely into S1 and the 23.6% retrace, with a strong 330–336 demand band beneath. Odds favor a bounce back toward the daily pivot 343 and possibly 345–346 within the next 24 hours, provided 330.5 holds. Therefore, the tactical play is Buy on a pullback near S1 with targets just below overhead congestion.