XMR at the 0.618 Crossroads: Looking for a Reflexive Bounce off 380

Summary view

• Timeframe used: Daily Aug 13–Nov 10 and intraday hourly Nov 9–10.
• Current price: 384.56, down from the Nov 9 spike-high 470.01; heavy pullback into a multi-confluence support band (0.618 retracement cluster, prior breakout shelf, psychological 380).
• 24h bias: Base-building with a reflexive mean-reversion bounce favored toward 398–405, unless 377–372 fails (then 365–360 opens).

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Higher highs and higher lows since late Sep/early Oct. Breakout on Oct 1 above 300s led to stair-step advances. The Nov 9 candle printed a large expansion bar with a long upper wick (470 high, 416 close), signaling excess and likely mean reversion.
• 4h/1h structure: Clear intraday downtrend on Nov 10: successive lower highs 427 → 424 → 418 → 407 → 402 → 398 → 386 and lower lows 410 → 406 → 389 → 385 → 380. The slope is negative, but price has reached an established HTF demand zone (372–385).
• Key levels
  • Resistance: 400–405 (intraday supply and 0.5 retrace), 417–425 (pivot area/1h Kijun zone), 432–435 (Nov 9/10 Asian session high), 450, 470 (spike high/liquidity).
  • Support: 385–380 (current shelf and 0.618 cluster), 372–375 (prior breakout highs from Nov 7–8), 365–366 (daily pivot S1), 357–360 (0.786 retrace), 333–348 (high-volume node from late Oct).

2. Moving averages (trend gauges)

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approx): Price remains above the 50D SMA (low 300s) and likely near/above the 20D SMA (mid-330s to mid-340s). The medium-term uptrend is intact despite the pullback.
• 1h EMAs (9/21/55): Price below all, confirming short-term downside pressure. Distance to the 21/55-EMA bands (hovering near 398–410) suggests mean-reversion potential if sellers tire.
• Takeaway: Daily bullish, intraday bearish. A bounce to test the 1h MA stack (398–405) is probable if 380 holds.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI
  • Daily RSI likely cooled from overbought after the Nov 9 spike; still in bullish regime (>50) on daily, leaving room for constructive pullbacks.
  • 1h RSI is in/near oversold; the sequence of price lower lows with diminishing downside momentum suggests budding bullish divergence around 389 → 385 → 380.
• MACD
  • Daily: Still positive from the October breakout, but histogram contracting after the blow-off; momentum normalizing.
  • 1h: Below signal and zero line, but histogram contraction into support indicates potential for a short-term bullish cross on stabilizing price.
• Stochastic (1h): Oversold and trying to curl up; supports a bounce scenario into the 398–405 resistance box.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (Daily, approx): Expanded sharply after the 470/366 wide-range day. Expect elevated intraday swings (±4–7%) in the next 24h. Planning entries near support and exits near resistance is key.
• Bollinger Bands
  • Daily: After the upside band expansion, price mean-reverted back toward the upper/middle band area; not stretched to the upside anymore.
  • 1h: Price was riding the lower band during today’s selloff; recent candles show lower band breaches with stabilization—often preceding a reversion toward the 20-period mid-band (near 398–402).

5. Fibonacci confluence

• From Nov 5 swing low 326.73 to Nov 9 high 470.01:
  • 38.2%: ~415.3 (pivot zone and yesterday’s close area)
  • 50%: ~398.4 (today’s anticipated resistance)
  • 61.8%: ~381.5 (today’s support; current trade location)
• From the broader Oct 31 low (~319) to 470:
  • 61.8%: ~376.6 (aligns with 372–385 demand band)
• Takeaway: 381–377 is a strong, multi-frame 0.618 retracement cluster. First bounce target aligns with 0.5 (~398–400).

6. Volume, OBV, and profile elements

• Nov 9 volume (410M) dwarfed prior days—classic blow-off/stop-run. Today’s intraday sell waves saw rising prints into the 380s with increased volume, suggesting absorption rather than panic continuation.
• Value nodes: 333–348 remains a dominant HVN below; nearer-term, emerging acceptance around 405–420 earlier today flipped to resistance after breakdown.
• OBV (conceptual): Despite intraday drawdown, the cumulative uptrend from late Oct is not decisively broken.

7. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday session VWAP resides overhead (low 400s) given early selling. Price below VWAP indicates short-term seller control, but distance suggests reversion prospects.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 9 impulse likely sits around the low 410s; reclaiming 405–410 would indicate buyers regaining initiative within 24–48h.

8. Ichimoku (1h, conceptual)

• Price below Tenkan/Kijun and an overhead cloud near ~405–420. First bounce likely stalls into the Kijun/Cloud edge (398–405). A base above 395 later could enable a cloud test tomorrow.

9. Pivot points (classic, based on Nov 9 H/L/C ≈ 470/365.8/416)

• Pivot P ≈ 417.3; S1 ≈ 364.6; R1 ≈ 468.7; S2 ≈ 313.1.
• Current price is below P and well above S1. Under the pivot favors rallies failing into resistance; however, distance to S1 is large, so bounces toward 398–405 are statistically favored before any deeper test.

10. Candles and Wyckoff read

• Nov 9 daily: wide spread up, close below high—excess. Nov 10 intraday: sequence of down bars with increasing lower wicks into 385–380 and larger transactions—potential absorption/automatic reaction into a short-term rally (Wyckoff: PS/SC → AR → ST logic on the 1h scale).

11. Elliott Wave framing

• The 326 → 470 leg is an impulsive wave. Today’s retrace toward the 0.618 (381) is consistent with a Wave-4 style pullback. A 24h bounce (start of a Wave-5 attempt) often targets prior minor resistance (398–405) before deciding on continuation.

12. Risk clusters and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55–60%): 380 ± 3 holds. Price oscillates 380–385 → 395–402 → stalls near 400–405. Close or hover around 398–403 within 24h.
• Bear case (25–30%): 380 fails on momentum; quick liquidity sweep toward 372–375. If that cracks, extension to 365–360 (S1/0.786) before sharp rebound. This path likely requires a risk event or continued heavy supply.
• Bull extension (10–15%): Strong absorption now, V-shape push through 405 and test 417–425 (daily pivot/Kijun). Less likely in a single session without consolidation.

13. Trade plan logic

• Edge: Confluence long at a 0.618 retracement cluster (381–377) with nearby structural invalidation (≤372) and a magnet resistance at 398–405.
• Mean-reversion expectancy is reinforced by: oversold 1h momentum, lower-band pierces, absorption footprints, and wide gap to intraday VWAP/1h MAs.
• R:R example (guidance-only): Entry 382; target 402 (+20); protective line in the sand around 372 (−10) yields ~2:1, aligning with the base case.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect a relief bounce from 380–385 toward 398–405 barring a fresh breakdown. The optimal tactical stance is a Buy-the-dip near 382 with a take-profit staged into 400–403 (front-run of thick resistance).