Monero Price Analysis Powered by AI

Monero poised for a reflex bounce: buy the 360–365 dip, target 388–392 within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h path forecast

Baseline path (next 24h): Early dip into 362–365 is likely, followed by a rebound toward 380–388. Probability-weighted range: 358–392. Bias: buy-the-dip within 360–365; fade strength near 388–392 if reached quickly.
Rationale: Daily trend remains up (price above 10D/20D/50D SMAs), but hourly momentum is oversold-to-neutral with price hugging a descending channel’s lower rail and sitting just under a key pivot S1. Climax spike to 470 on 11/09 has now retraced almost fully to the pre-break base (359–361), a zone that tends to attract dip bids.

Multi-timeframe structure

Regime: Uptrend since late Oct (higher highs/lows). Price broke out from the 330–350 box, spiked to 470 on 11/09, then mean-reverted lower.
20D SMA ≈ 349.5 (est.). Current 367.4 > 20D → trend intact.
10D SMA ≈ 362.0; 5D SMA ≈ 381.0. Price below 5D but above 10D: short-term corrective within broader uptrend. This often resolves with a bounce once short-term momentum resets.
Key horizontal levels (daily):
- Support: 359–363 (pre-spike base and 100% retrace of 11/06→11/09 impulse), 348–351 (prior breakout shelf), 335–338 (late-Oct supply turned support).
- Resistance: 386–395 (post-spike supply zone and prior hourly highs), 400 round-number, 416 (11/09 close), 427 (11/10 high), 470 spike.
Candles: 11/09 climax top (long upper wick) followed by two red days (11/10, 11/11). Typical post-climax three-session digestion; downside follow-through tends to fade near the base (359–363) before a reflexive bounce.

Price sequence (11/11 intraday): Lower highs and lower lows from ~395 → ~361.6 → 367.4 near the close; clear descending channel.
Channel inference: Lower rail currently ~364–366; upper rail ~382–385. Expect reversion attempts from the lower rail unless acceleration breaks 360 cleanly.

Momentum and oscillators 3) RSI

Hourly RSI(14) ≈ 38 (computed from the last 14 hourly closes). Interpretation: Mildly oversold, not extreme; supports bounce attempts but does not preclude another marginal low tag (360–362) first.
Daily stochastic (approx.): %K ~32 within the last 14-day range (Low ~319 on 10/30; High 470 on 11/09). Not oversold; room to chop.

Daily MACD: Likely positive but flattening with histogram contracting after the spike; signals a cooldown phase within an uptrend.
Hourly MACD: Negative, consistent with the descending channel. A bull trigger would be an hourly MACD cross up coincident with reclaiming 379–382.

Volatility and mean reversion 5) ATR and Bollinger Bands

Daily ATR(14) elevated due to the 11/09 spike; expect wide 24h ranges (25–40 points plausible).
20D Bollinger mid-band ≈ 349.5; current 367 is modestly above the mid, with upper band likely >400 and lower band likely ~300 due to expanded vol. On hourly, price spent time near/under the lower band—conditions conducive to mean reversion bounces.

Price geometry and levels 6) Fibonacci levels (recent impulse)

Impulse: 11/06 low 359.29 → 11/09 high 470.00 (Δ ≈ 110.71).
Key retracements from 470:
- 61.8% ≈ 401.6 (broken), 78.6% ≈ 383.0 (tested/faded on 11/10–11/11), 100% ≈ 359.3 (base). Current 367 sits between 78.6% and 100% retrace: a “last-stand” dip-buy zone with favorable asymmetric risk if defended.

P ≈ 398.07; R1 ≈ 416.17; S1 ≈ 368.73; S2 ≈ 350.63.
Current 367.38 just below S1 (368.7). Typical behavior: price oscillates around S1; dips below often attempt to re-tag S1/P from beneath. This aligns with a bounce attempt to 379–389 if 360–363 holds.

Intraday VWAP (approx.) skewed by heavier volumes around 17:00 and morning sessions; estimated near 380. Price below VWAP = intraday sellers in control, but distance from VWAP increases the odds of mean reversion attempts back toward 378–382.
Volume: Heavy distribution on 11/09; subsequent sessions posted solid volume on down days (profit-taking), yet no decisive break of the pre-breakout shelf. Suggests dip buyers are active sub-365.

Hourly SAR likely above price following the afternoon selloff; a flip typically occurs on a push through ~380–383. That zone also matches channel resistance and hourly VWAP—key decision area.

The surge to 470 appears like a wave-5 or terminal thrust. Current drawdown likely wave A into 360–365, with a wave B bounce toward 385–395, and risk of a later wave C probing 350–355. Over the next 24h, we expect the wave B leg to dominate after a marginal low or double-bottom attempt.

Distance to 10D SMA (≈362): +5.4 points (~+0.15 z if daily σ ~~35–40). This is close to fair; distance to 5D SMA (≈381): −13.6 points (~~−0.35 z intraday). Low z favors reversion toward 5D SMA in the next 24–48h, assuming no trend break.

Scenarios and probabilities (24h)

Base case (60%): Drift/dip to 362–365, hold, then rebound to 380–388. Failure above 388–392 on first test likely; chop settles 375–385 into the session close.
Bear extension (25%): Fast sweep 358–360 (liquidity run), modest bounce to 372–377, then another fade; day closes 365–372. Requires persistent risk-off tape or BTC/crypto beta drag.
Bull surprise (15%): Immediate recapture of 379–382, trigger of short covering to 388–395; stretch target 399–402 if momentum accelerates and VWAP flips supportive.

Trade plan synthesis

Edge: Buy-the-dip into 360–365 where multiple supports confluence: hourly channel lower rail, S1 undercut, pre-spike base (100% retrace), and proximity to 10D SMA.
Trigger: Evidence of seller exhaustion (stalling below 365, RSI(14h) basing, or an hourly bullish reversal candle). A reclaim of 372–375 after the dip improves odds.
Targets: First target 382–385 (hourly VWAP/upper rail), second 388–392 (supply shelf). Given the 24h horizon, we’ll set a single take-profit in the high-380s to capture the initial reflex.
Invalidation: Clean hourly close below 355–356 or heavy-volume breakdown through 360 that fails to reclaim quickly would negate the bounce setup and open 350–351 (S2) and 348–351 shelf.
Risk note: Volatility is elevated post-climax; slippage possible. Use hard stops and size down accordingly.

Why not short here?

While the micro-trend is down on the hourly, risk/reward for fresh shorts at 367 is less attractive into 360–363 multi-support confluence. Better short entries sit higher (382–390) where supply thickens and risk can be tightly defined. Our 24h expectation favors a bounce attempt first.

Conclusion and call

Direction: Buy (Long) on a controlled dip.
Optimal entry: 362.8 (limit), within the 360–365 demand pocket.
Take-profit: 388.5 within the 388–392 resistance shelf.
Timeframe: Next 24 hours.
Monitoring: Watch 360–362 for absorption; an early reclaim of 379–382 would confirm buyer traction and may reduce the likelihood of filling the ideal bid—adapt by scaling in from 365–368 if momentum flips earlier.