Monero’s Throwback Backtest: Buy the 409 Dip for a Bounce Toward 429

Executive summary and 24h view

• Regime: Medium-term uptrend since early October, now consolidating in a rising range. Today printed an intraday lower high/fade from 445 into the low 410s, i.e., a healthy pullback within the trend unless 408–410 breaks decisively.
• Base case next 24h: Mean-reversion bounce from 408–410 toward 424–430 (probable high around 428–432). Alternate: a stop-run into 400–402 (S1/pivot cluster) before reversing higher. Break of 399 risks a deeper dip to 392–396.
• Trade bias: Buy-the-dip with limit entries clustered around 409–410 (or a second-chance bid 400–402). Take profit into 428–432 where supply layers and daily R1 reside.

1. Multi-timeframe price action

• Daily structure: From Sep 20 (~299) to Nov 9 spike (470) then a controlled retrace into late Nov (339–345) and a steady advance through Dec into the 410–440 band. Current price 413.22 sits above the 20-day mean and above the 50-day mean, confirming the medium-term uptrend. The last two daily candles (Dec 17–18) show a post-breakout pullback: Dec 17 closed weak (417.70) after tagging ~438; Dec 18 pushed to a fresh swing high (~445) and reversed to 413 area—classic throwback.
• Intraday (hourly) today: Trend up during Asia/EU from ~418 to ~445, then a U.S. session reversal with a fast drop into 408–414. Price is now below today’s VWAP and under hourly short MAs—short-term sellers in control, but pullback is into layered support.
• Range context: The near-term range is 408–410 support, 428–436 resistance, with an outer envelope 399–459 (daily pivot S1/S2 vs R1/R2). Expect chop within this band as volatility normalizes after the upper-band tag.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 404.4 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 413 trades above the 20-SMA by ~2.1%, so the immediate bias remains constructive even after the pullback.
• 50-day SMA (approx) in the high 380s–low 390s given Oct–Nov closes; price is above it, confirming the medium-term uptrend.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21) rolled over during the U.S. session; price is currently below both, signaling a short-term corrective leg within the larger uptrend. Interpretation: Trend remains up on daily, corrective on hourly—a classic buy-the-dip backdrop if daily supports hold.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Likely mid-50s after fading from an intraday overbought push; neutral-bullish and not extended.
• RSI (hourly): Pulled back from overbought and now near neutral-to-slightly oversold; room to bounce.
• MACD (daily): Above zero, but histogram likely contracting after today’s reversal—trend intact, momentum cooling.
• MACD (hourly): Bearish cross intraday with a negative histogram; short-term momentum favors a retest of supports before any rebound.
• Stochastic (hourly): Near oversold after the drop—supports a tactical bounce from the 408–410 zone.
• ADX/DMI (daily): Moderate trend strength (low-20s) with +DI above –DI but converging; pullback within trend.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely flipped above price on the hourly (short-term down leg) while remaining below price on daily (uptrend intact). Interpretation: Momentum cooled intraday; oscillators support a bounce attempt from support in the next 12–24 hours if 408–410 holds.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-day BB: Mid-band ≈ 404; implied upper band near the mid-430s to high-430s, lower band near ~370 (based on recent stdev). Today’s high (~445) likely tagged/pierced the upper band, followed by mean reversion toward the middle band.
• 14-day ATR: Roughly in the low/mid-20s given recent daily ranges; a ±1 ATR move from 413 implies 389–435 as a typical 24h envelope. Interpretation: After upper-band expansion, mean reversion is in play; 404–410 is the first magnet, with 428–432 the counter-move magnet.

5. Support, resistance, and tape/volume context

• Immediate supports: 413 intraday node; 408–410 (38.2% Fib of Dec 7 low to Dec 17/18 high, hourly demand shelf); 400–402 (daily S1/consolidation shelf); 392–396 (61.8% Fib cluster and prior closes).
• Immediate resistances: 418–420 (session VWAP vicinity); 424–428 (prior hourly highs, supply shelf); 432–436 (daily R1 and breakdown pivot); 444–446 (today’s high/upper-band tag); 456–470 (November spike area).
• Volume: The selloff 19:00–20:00 UTC carried higher relative volume—capitulation-lite into the 408–414 area, often a prelude to a bounce if follow-through selling dries up. Interpretation: Strong confluence around 408–410 and again at 400–402; layered supply awaits from 424 up to 436.

6. Fibonacci and confluence mapping

• Swing low (Dec 7: 362.62) to swing high (Dec 17/18: ~438.16–445):
  • 38.2% ≈ 409–410 (current test)
  • 50% ≈ 400–401 (daily S1 confluence)
  • 61.8% ≈ 392–392 (secondary demand)
• Daily pivots (using H≈444.97, L≈407.79, C≈413.22):
  • Pivot P ≈ 422.0
  • R1 ≈ 436.2, R2 ≈ 459.2
  • S1 ≈ 399.0, S2 ≈ 384.8 Interpretation: 38.2% and 50% retracements align perfectly with P/S1 ladder—textbook confluence for dip-buys; R1 matches 432–436 supply.

7. Ichimoku (daily and hourly read)

• Daily: Price remains above the cloud; Tenkan (fast line) likely ~409–412; Kijun (base) near ~400. Current pullback toward Tenkan with Kijun as deeper support—bullish regime intact.
• Hourly: Price dropped into/under the cloud with Tenkan/Kijun overhead—neutral-to-bearish intraday until reclaimed. A reclaim of 420–422 would typically signal the bounce is underway. Interpretation: Daily Ichimoku encourages buying near Tenkan/Kijun; hourly advises patience until we see stabilization above 420–422.

8. Pattern diagnostics and candlesticks

• Today’s upper wick into 445 followed by a close near 413 is a classic “upper-band rejection” or mini blow-off test, not necessarily trend-ending.
• Hourly bearish divergence into the high (momentum failing while price made a marginal higher high) triggered the fade.
• Structure resembles a bull-flag/ascending channel with a throwback toward the breakout zone (407–412). If the channel holds, expect a reflex to the mid/upper channel (424–432).

9. Mean-reversion vs momentum frameworks

• Mean-reversion: Upper-band tag followed by a pullback to the 20-day mean area (404–410) sets up a bounce. Optimal buy zones: 409–410 (38.2% Fib) and 400–402 (50% Fib + S1).
• Momentum confirmation: If price reclaims 420–422 (above session VWAP/pivot), momentum traders will target 428–432 first, then 436.
• Failure scenario: A decisive close below 399 (S1) opens 392–396 (61.8% Fib) where dip-buying likely reappears.

10. 24-hour path probabilities

• Base case (≈60%): Stabilize 408–410, reclaim 420–422, and push into 424–430. High print likely 428–432. Close near 422–428.
• Bear case (≈30%): Liquidity sweep to 400–402 before bouncing to ~418–422 by end of window.
• Tail risk (≈10%): Loss of 399 leading to 392–396; this would threaten the near-term bullish setup but still sits inside the broader uptrend.

11. Risk management and execution notes

• Entry: Staggered bids 409–410 with contingency adds at 400–402 improves blend price and probability of fill.
• Stop (discretionary): Below 396 (beneath 61.8% Fib and December base), as a structural failure point.
• Take-profit: Scale out 424–432; leave a runner only on a clean reclaim and hold above 432 with volume.
• Confirmation cues: Hourly close back above 420–422 (VWAP/pivot) and improving breadth on the push.

Conclusion The daily uptrend remains intact; today’s pullback is a standard throwback from an upper-band spike into a dense 38.2–50% Fib and pivot support zone. Expect a 24h bounce toward 424–430, with upside capped by 432–436 unless momentum reignites. The optimal play is Buy (Long) on a dip toward ~409 with take-profit near ~429.