Monero’s Dip Looks Done: Positioning for a 24-Hour Relief Pop Toward 456

Executive summary (next 24h)

• Bias: Mildly bullish relief bounce after a 4-session pullback found support in the 50% retracement zone. Expect range 435–457 with a skew to the upside.
• Base path: Dip toward 438–439 gets bought, grind to 450–456 as the day’s primary target zone. Break/close above 450 strengthens momentum to 456–458.
• Risk path: Loss of 435 opens 432–430 (61.8% pullback of the intraday bounce) and, if momentum accelerates, a liquidity sweep toward 424 prior swing low.

Multi-timeframe technical view

1. Trend and moving averages

• Daily structure: Clear uptrend from late Oct (~330s) to Dec 20 high (~497), followed by an orderly 4-day pullback into a high-volume support shelf. Price is printing higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 420 (est.): Price at 440 is above the 20-SMA; constructive for trend continuation.
• 50-day SMA ≈ high-380s/low-390s (est.): 20 > 50 and price > 20/50 confirm an intact bullish regime.
• EMAs (daily, est.): Fast EMAs (8–12) near current price (438–442), 21-EMA around low-420s. Price rebounded right around the 21-EMA/Kijun area—typical bull pullback behavior.
• Intraday (1h): Price consolidates 438–447, building higher lows since the 16:00 hour (435.1 → 436.2 → 438+), consistent with a base.

2. Market structure, supply/demand, and levels

• Key supports: 424.1 (Dec 24 low), 429–435 (50% retrace of the Dec 20–24 drop; prior demand), then 418–421 (20-SMA/kijun cluster).
• Key resistances: 447–450 (intraday supply and psychological), 456–457 (61.8% retrace of the recent downswing), 463–465 (Dec 22 area), 471–476 (Dec 21–20 zone).
• Volume: Pullback occurred on declining volume (Dec 24 notably lighter), suggesting waning sell pressure; today’s intraday volume modest and orderly—typical of holiday-session basing.

3. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (Dec 20 high 476.67 → Dec 24 low 424.14):
  • 38.2% retrace: 444.2
  • 50% retrace: 450.4
  • 61.8% retrace: 456.6 Price currently 440 sits below 38.2%; upside to 450–456 is the path of least resistance if the base holds.
• Intraday bounce (Dec 24 low 424.14 → Dec 25 high 447.34):
  • 38.2% pullback level: 438.5
  • 50%: 435.7
  • 61.8%: 433.0 Current trade near 440 is sitting right above the 38.2% retracement of the bounce—a high-probability dip-to-buy zone.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): Cooled from overbought to ~50–55; plenty of room to the upside without being stretched.
• Stochastic (daily, est.): Reset from the 80s toward midline; curling up fits a new impulse attempt.
• MACD (daily): Positive but narrowed after the pullback; histogram flattening—positioned for a bullish re-cross on further price strength.
• 1h momentum: Lower-low in price (435.7 → 435.1) with shallower downside follow-through and successive higher closes suggests a mild bullish divergence and momentum stabilization.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR (14d, est.): ~25–30. Implies a typical 24h span of ±25 around spot (approx 414–466). Position sizing and targets should respect this.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily, est.): Mid-band near ~420; price above mid-band, below upper band (likely mid- to upper-460s). Plenty of upside bandwidth before encountering band pressure.
• Keltner Channels (daily, est.): Price returning toward mid-channel with room to expand higher if intraday resistance at 447–450 gives way.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price remains above the cloud. Kijun (base) estimated low-420s, Tenkan near ~440. Price testing/holding Tenkan is classic trend-continuation behavior. Span A > Span B keeps the cloud bullish.

7. Pattern read

• Pullback resembles a bull flag/descending channel terminating in a hammerish day on Dec 24 (long lower wick) and a smaller inside-type session today. This sequence often precedes a continuation push toward the 50–61.8% retracement of the prior downswing.
• Intraday ascending-lows structure forms a shallow base; resistance shelf at 447–450 is the decision point.

8. Market profile and VWAP

• Volume nodes: Strong acceptance built in the 440–445 area; secondary node 450–455 from prior distribution.
• Session VWAP (today, est.) near 441–442; spot orbiting the VWAP suggests mean-reversion magnet slightly above current price with potential VWAP-to-VAH push if buyers press through 447–450.

9. ADX/DMI and OBV

• ADX (daily, est.): Mid-20s—trend intact but in pullback; room for re-acceleration.
• DMI: +DI likely recovering back toward −DI after the pullback.
• OBV: No decisive distribution; stabilization consistent with absorption on the dip.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 3 likely topped near 497. The pullback to 424 fits an A–B–C or wave 4 flat/zigzag. If correct, wave 5 attempts typically start from the 38.2–50% retracement cluster; a 24h bounce toward 450–457 is a reasonable first step.

11. Risk factors and invalidation

• Invalidation for the immediate bounce: A decisive break and hourly close below 435 increases odds of a test of 433–430 and possibly a sweep of 424. A daily close back under ~429 would weaken the bullish continuation thesis into the weekend.

12. Synthesis and 24h path probabilities

• Bullish continuation to 450–456: ~60%
• Range-bound chop 436–447 (holiday liquidity): ~30%
• Bear break to 432–424: ~10%

Trade plan (tactical)

• Rationale: Buy the dip into the 38.2–50% retracement of the intraday bounce (438.5–435.7) with overhead targets aligned to 50–61.8% retrace of the Dec 20–24 downswing (450.4–456.6). Structure, momentum resets, and volume behavior support a relief bounce.
• Entry: 438.5 (limit, just below spot to capture a liquidity dip). Acceptable zone 438.5 ± 1.
• Target: 456.6 (primary), optional scale at 450.4/452.5 if momentum stalls.
• Risk (not required in fields but key): Logical stop below 431–433 or conservative below 424 swing low, depending on risk tolerance.

Bottom line

• The pullback reached the 50% retracement of the Dec advance and found buyers. Multiple tools (Fibs, MAs, Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun behavior, intraday structure, and momentum resets) point to an upside skew. Favor buying a dip for a 24h push toward 456.