XMR Post-Blowoff Breakdown: Sell the Relief Rally Into 480–505 Supply

Market context (Daily structure)

Current price: 464.50

1) Trend & structure (Dow Theory)

• Primary trend (Oct → mid‑Jan): strong uptrend from ~335 (late Oct) to a blow‑off peak around 798.9 (Jan 14 high).
• Secondary trend (mid‑Jan → now): clear downtrend / distribution. Sequence:
  • Peak → sharp selloff (Jan 15–18), then a dead‑cat bounce to 622 (Jan 19 close), followed by a breakdown (Jan 20 close 503).
• Key regime change: the Jan 20 collapse (low ~499) confirmed lower highs + lower lows versus the Jan 14–19 structure.

2) Support / resistance map (horizontal + swing levels)

Using recent daily pivots:

• Immediate support zone: 460–465 (today’s low/close region; also psychological mid‑400s).
• Next support: 445–450 (Dec 23 close 448.9; multiple late‑Dec closes ~443–453).
• Deeper support: 405–420 (cluster of Dec supports; multiple closes in early/mid Dec).
• Immediate resistance: 480–485 (intraday bounce point today; multiple hourly closes around 481–483 before breakdown).
• Higher resistance: 500–505 (Jan 24 close 503; round number + prior consolidation).
• Major resistance / supply: 520–532 (Jan 21–23 closes ~512–522 and highs ~532).

Implication: Price is sitting on first meaningful support (460s). Overhead supply is heavy from 480 → 505 → 520.

3) Candlestick / price action read

Daily candles (recent):

• Jan 19: strong rebound close 622 after low 559 (capitulation bounce).
• Jan 20: major bearish expansion day (close 503, low 499) → breakdown confirmation.
• Jan 21: bounce to close 521 (relief rally).
• Jan 22–24: failing rally / drift down (515 → 512 → 503).
• Jan 25 (so far): large bearish continuation from ~503 down to 464.5, with an intraday low near 464.0.

Hourly (last ~24h):

• Sideways-to-down around 511→502, then a sharp impulsive drop around 14:00 to ~466.
• Bounce attempt to ~470 failed; price returned to 464 area.

Implication: strong bearish momentum intraday; however, the market is now extended into support (460–465), so mean reversion bounces are possible, but trend bias remains down.

4) Volatility & range analysis (ATR concept, expansion/contraction)

• Daily ranges recently are very wide (e.g., Jan 20 high 625 / low 499 = 126 range). Even today’s partial day shows a notable range (506.9 → 464.5 ~ 42).
• This is consistent with a post-blowoff, high‑volatility distribution phase.

Implication: in the next 24h, expect wide swings; tight stops are vulnerable.

5) Momentum (RSI / rate-of-change logic, qualitative)

Without computing exact RSI, the sequence (798 → 464) with multiple large red days strongly suggests:

• Daily momentum is bearish and likely sub‑50 RSI, possibly approaching oversold on shorter timeframes.
• Hourly momentum after the sharp drop is likely oversold, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.

Implication: a tactical bounce is possible, but statistically the path of least resistance remains sell rallies until price reclaims key resistances.

6) Moving-average regime (qualitative)

Given the magnitude of the drop since Jan 14:

• Price is likely below short MAs (5–10 day) and possibly pressuring the 20‑day.
• The slope of short MAs should be down, implying rallies are likely to meet supply.

7) Volume / participation

• The blowoff rally (Jan 11–14) showed extremely high volume (notably Jan 12–14). That often marks distribution.
• The selloff days also carry substantial volume, indicating active liquidation.
• Today’s daily volume (so far) is large, aligning with capitulation-like intraday behavior, but not enough alone to call a durable bottom.

8) Fibonacci retracement (from peak to recent low)

Using Jan 14 high ~798.9 to Jan 20 low ~499.2:

• 23.6% retrace ≈ 570
• 38.2% retrace ≈ 614
• 50% retrace ≈ 649
• 61.8% retrace ≈ 684 Price failed well below these after the bounce; the rebound to ~622 (Jan 19 close) roughly tagged the 38.2% zone and reversed.

Implication: classic bear-market behavior: rebound to fib resistance then continuation down.

9) Scenario building (next 24h)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation with a relief bounce

• Because price is sitting on support (460–465), a bounce toward 480–485 is plausible.
• But unless XMR reclaims ~500–505, the bounce likely becomes a lower high and selling resumes.

Bear case: breakdown below 460

• If 460 breaks with momentum, next magnet becomes 448–450, then possibly 435–440.

Bull case (lower probability): V‑reversal recovery

• Would require quick reclaim of 485, then 500–505 and holding above; given the structure and supply overhead, this is less likely within 24h.

10) Trade bias synthesis

• Higher timeframe: downtrend from blowoff peak.
• Intraday: strong bearish impulse; now at support where a pullback rally is likely.
• Best edge typically: Sell (short) on a bounce into resistance, not chasing at the lows.

24h Price Movement Forecast

• Expected path: attempt to rebound from 460–465 → test 480–485 (possible wick into ~490) → rejection and drift back toward 468–462.
• Expected 24h range: roughly 448–490 (wide due to current volatility).

Decision

Sell (Short Position) — but ideally enter on a bounce into resistance rather than at current support.

Optimal entry/exit levels (based on levels above)

• Open (short) price: 483.0 (near first meaningful resistance / breakdown retest zone)
• Close (take profit) price: 452.0 (ahead of the 448–450 support cluster to improve fill probability)

(Risk note: In practice, invalidation would be a sustained reclaim above ~505 and especially above ~520, but you didn’t request a stop level.)