Tradzar
Monero Price Analysis Powered by AI
XMR Relief Rally Meets Overhead Supply: High-Probability Rejection Setup Near 480
XMR (Monero) — Multi-timeframe technical read & 24h projection
Current price: 475.02
The dataset provides daily candles from 2025-10-30 through 2026-01-27 (latest daily close ≈ 475.02) and hourly candles covering the last ~24h into the current timestamp. I’ll anchor bias on the daily structure (trend + key levels) and time the entry using the hourly micro-structure (momentum/mean reversion).
1) Market structure (Daily timeframe)
1.1 Trend & regime
- From late Oct (~323 close) into mid-Jan, XMR entered a strong expansion uptrend, culminating in a blow-off / parabolic leg:
- 2026-01-11 close 558.5
- 2026-01-12 close 634.7
- 2026-01-13 close 680.2
- 2026-01-14 close 713.4 with an extreme high ~798.9
- After the peak, price shifted into a sharp markdown / volatility compression-release sequence:
- 01-20 close 503.3 after a massive range day (high 625, low 499)
- 01-25 low ~444.8 with close 449.3
- 01-27 recovery close 475.0
Interpretation: The primary trend on a multi-month basis is still “higher than Oct/Nov,” but since mid-Jan XMR is in a post-blowoff corrective regime (lower highs / heavy swings). In this regime, rallies into overhead supply often get sold.
1.2 Swing points (key pivots)
- Major swing high: ~798.9 (01-14 high)
- Key breakdown zone / pivot: ~620–625 (01-20 high/area)
- Current recovery zone: ~460–475 (01-26/01-27)
- Local swing low: ~444–446 (01-25 low ~444.8; 01-26 low ~446.1)
This places XMR in a bearish-to-neutral corrective channel between ~445 support and ~505 resistance in the near-term.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (Daily)
2.1 Horizontal levels (most traded / reacted)
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Resistance 1: 480–485 (recent intraday highs; psychological 480; hourly rejection zone)
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Resistance 2: 500–505 (01-20/01-24 closes and 01-25 breakdown origin; classic “breakdown retest” zone)
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Resistance 3: 515–522 (01-21 close 521.6; 01-22 close 516)
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Support 1: 465–468 (hourly base and multiple closes; daily recovery area)
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Support 2: 455–460 (hourly spike low region; prior intraday demand)
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Major support: 444–446 (capitulation low; “line in the sand”)
2.2 Supply/demand logic
Given the violent selloff from ~713 → ~449, there is likely substantial overhead supply from trapped longs. The 475 area is a mid-retrace that often acts as a decision point; upside may be limited unless 500–505 is reclaimed convincingly.
3) Volatility & range analysis
3.1 Daily ranges (qualitative ATR read)
- Mid-Jan candles show extremely wide ranges (e.g., 01-14, 01-16, 01-20). This implies elevated ATR and a market prone to sharp mean-reverting swings.
- In high-ATR corrective regimes, entries that chase strength often underperform; better expectancy tends to come from either:
- selling into resistance after a relief bounce, or
- buying deep support after capitulation.
At 475, we are not at capitulation support (444–446). We are closer to near-term resistance (480/500).
4) Momentum & pattern work
4.1 Daily candle narrative
- 01-25: big down day to ~444–446 (capitulation-like).
- 01-26: bounce (close ~460.6).
- 01-27: continuation bounce (close ~475.0), recovering into prior breakdown micro-zone.
This looks like a dead-cat/relief rally following liquidation.
4.2 Retracement framework (Fibonacci-style, approximate)
Using the recent impulse from ~622 (01-19 close/area) down to ~449 (01-25 close/low region):
- 23.6% retrace sits roughly in the ~490 neighborhood.
- 38.2% retrace sits roughly in the ~515 neighborhood.
Price at 475 is below the first meaningful retracement resistance (~490), suggesting room to pop a bit more, but the risk/reward for new longs is questionable because:
- upside to 490/505 is limited versus
- downside back to 460/446 is large in a volatile regime.
5) Hourly micro-structure (last ~24h)
5.1 Observed hourly path
- Early session: ~460 → 478–479 highs.
- Mid-session: dip to ~466, then a sharp flush to ~456 (17:00 candle low ~455.8) and quick recovery.
- Late session: steady grind higher to ~474–475.
5.2 Intraday levels confirmed by hours
- Immediate resistance: 476.7–479.6 (multiple touches; 12:00–13:00 and early highs)
- Immediate support: 468–470 (several closes; consolidation before the last push)
- Secondary support: 456–460 (intraday liquidation wick base)
5.3 Momentum inference
The rebound from ~456 to ~475 suggests short-term bullish momentum, but it is approaching a well-defined supply ceiling (≈479–480). In corrective regimes, that often leads to a pullback to retest support.
6) Volume considerations (Daily)
- The parabolic advance (01-11 to 01-14) came with very high volume, and the subsequent decline maintained heavy participation—typical of a distribution → deleveraging transition.
- The recent bounce days (01-26, 01-27) have decent volume but are not comparable to the peak frenzy; that often signals relief rally rather than a clean trend resumption.
7) Probabilistic 24h forecast (next 24 hours)
Given:
- price is in a post-blowoff corrective regime,
- currently pressing into 476–480 resistance,
- overhead supply is likely dense until 500–505,
Base case (higher probability):
- Chop to slightly down after testing 478–482, followed by a pullback toward 468–462.
Bull case:
- Break and hold above ~480, then extension to ~490–505 (still likely to be sold into).
Bear case:
- Rejection at 478–480 triggers a fast move back to 460, with risk of a deeper sweep toward 446 if risk-off returns.
Overall, risk/reward favors positioning for a near-term pullback rather than chasing the bounce.
8) Trade plan synthesis
Signal summary
- Trend (short-term): relief bounce up
- Regime (intermediate): corrective / distribution after blowoff
- Location: nearer resistance than support
- Expectation (24h): rejection or mean reversion lower from 478–482 area
Action bias: Sell (Short)
9) Execution levels (optimal open/close)
Open (entry)
- Ideal short entries are typically placed into resistance, not at mid-range.
- Best level from the hourly map is the supply zone 478–480.
Recommended Open Price (Short): 479.00
Take profit (close)
- First meaningful support to target is the consolidation base 468–470, with deeper support around 460–462.
- For a single take-profit level with good probability in 24h, target the higher-probability mean reversion zone.
Recommended Close Price (Take Profit): 466.00
(That aligns with the intraday base and offers a reasonable pullback distance without requiring a full breakdown to 446.)
Note: This is technical-analysis-based and does not incorporate news/order-book data; crypto volatility can invalidate levels quickly.