Tradzar
Monero Price Analysis Powered by AI
XMR Relief Bounce Into Overhead Supply: Post-Capitulation Retracement Likely to Fade in the Next 24 Hours
Market snapshot (XMR)
- Current price: $329.36
- Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-10 → 2026-02-07) + last ~24h hourly candles into 2026-02-07 21:58 UTC.
- Regime shift: From a parabolic blow-off top (Jan 14 high ~$798.9) into a sharp distribution → capitulation → oversold bounce phase.
1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis
A) Higher-timeframe structure (daily)
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Macro peak & bear leg
- Top formed mid-Jan with extreme range expansion (Jan 11–14) and huge volume.
- Since then: clear lower highs and lower lows.
- Key inflection: Feb 05 daily candle collapsed from ~$382 to close ~$292 with very large range (low ~$292) → classic capitulation day.
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Current positioning vs key swing levels
- From Jan 14 close ~$713 to current ~$329: price is down ~54%.
- Bounce from Feb 06 close ~$321 to current ~$329 is modest and still well below prior breakdown shelves.
Conclusion (daily): Primary trend remains bearish; current action is a relief bounce inside a downtrend.
B) Short-term structure (hourly ~24h)
- Hourly sequence shows:
- Early push to ~338.34 (local high), then rejection.
- Midday grind lower to ~323–324.
- Late impulse back toward ~329–330, but no clean breakout beyond the earlier high.
Conclusion (hourly): Short-term bounce, but momentum is choppy and vulnerable below resistance.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action / market structure)
Major resistance zones
- $338–$340:
- Matches the local hourly swing high (~338.34).
- Also near psychological round-number supply.
- $350–$365:
- Prior daily breakdown area (late Jan / early Feb weakness).
- Likely heavy overhead supply if price rallies.
- $382–$390:
- Pre-capitulation shelf before Feb 05 collapse; strong resistance if revisited.
Major support zones
- $322–$324:
- Repeated hourly pivots; intraday demand area.
- $317–$319:
- Multiple hourly lows in last 24h; “line in the sand” for the bounce.
- $292–$300:
- Capitulation close (~292.4) and local extreme; if revisited, volatility likely spikes.
3) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)
- Daily candles in early Feb show very wide ranges (Feb 05 and Feb 06 especially), indicating elevated ATR.
- Elevated volatility after capitulation often produces:
- sharp mean-reversion bounces,
- then secondary sell-down / retest attempts.
Implication for next 24h: expect large intraday swings and increased probability of a move back toward the $322–$324 area (mean reversion) unless $338 breaks convincingly.
4) Volume/participation read
- Daily volume surged into Jan’s blow-off and remained active through the selloff.
- Feb 05–07 volumes are still meaningful, suggesting institutional-scale repositioning, not a quiet bottom.
- Hourly volume prints are sparse/partial in the feed, but the late push (20:00–21:00) had some volume, consistent with a short-covering pop rather than broad accumulation.
Volume conclusion: bounce looks more like relief / covering than confirmed accumulation.
5) Candlestick / pattern diagnostics
Daily
- Feb 05: large bearish body / breakdown → capitulation impulse.
- Feb 06: rebound (close ~$321) → dead-cat bounce candidate.
- Feb 07: continuation bounce to ~$329, but still below key broken supports.
Hourly
- Multiple failures to hold above ~330 after spikes.
- Rejections from the 334–338 band suggest supply overhead.
Pattern conclusion: corrective bounce within a bearish structure; probability favors another leg of weakness or a retest of support.
6) Momentum reasoning (RSI/MACD-style inference)
(Exact indicator values aren’t computed here, but the price/impulse characteristics allow strong inference.)
- The drop from ~$382 → ~$292 in one day strongly implies RSI oversold conditions occurred.
- Oversold bounces typically retrace to key resistance (often 0.382–0.5 of the impulse) then fade.
- The bounce high region (~338) is consistent with a shallow retracement of the Feb 05 collapse and the broader Feb 01–05 down move.
Momentum conclusion: oversold bounce is losing impulse under resistance; bearish momentum can resume if $322 breaks.
7) Fibonacci / retracement confluence (practical levels)
Using the most relevant impulse: Feb 04 close ~$382 → Feb 05 close ~$292 (major shock leg).
- Range ≈ 90.
- 38.2% retrace: 292 + 0.382*90 ≈ $326.4 (already reached/hovering)
- 50% retrace: 292 + 0.5*90 = $337.0 (aligns with hourly high ~338)
- 61.8% retrace: 292 + 0.618*90 ≈ $347.6 (next upside magnet if $338 breaks)
Fib conclusion: price is currently sitting near the 38.2% retrace and has already rejected near the 50% retrace zone → common area for the bounce to stall.
8) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): bearish fade / retest
- Price struggles beneath $338–$340.
- Drifts down to retest $322–$324, potentially wicking toward $317–$319.
- If $317 fails, risk accelerates toward $305–$300 (not necessarily reached in 24h, but becomes plausible in high ATR conditions).
Bull case (lower probability): breakout continuation
- Clean hourly acceptance above $338–$340.
- Fast extension toward $347–$350 (Fib 61.8 + structure), possibly $365 if squeeze expands.
Bear case (tail risk): capitulation retest
- Sharp breakdown through $317 with momentum.
- Quick move to $300–$292 region.
24h directional bias: Down / sideways-down unless $338–$340 breaks and holds.
Trade decision (tactical)
Given:
- Primary daily trend is down.
- Bounce aligns with typical post-capitulation retracement (38.2% achieved; 50% rejected).
- Overhead supply at $338–$340.
Action: Sell (Short Position)
Optimal open (entry) price
- Best risk/reward is to short into resistance, not at mid-range.
- Preferred short entry zone: $337.0 (near the 50% retracement and just below the ~$338 swing high).
Take-profit (close) price
- Nearest high-probability support target: $323.0 (retest of intraday support shelf).
(Risk note for execution: if price breaks and holds above ~$340, the short thesis weakens materially.)