XMR Relief Bounce Near Supply: High-Probability Fade Back to the $320 Pivot

Market context (what the tape is saying)

• Current price: $331.01
• Regime (daily): clear downtrend since the blow-off top in mid‑Jan.
  • Peak zone: $798.9 (2026-01-14 high)
  • Subsequent cascade: 713 → 678 → 620 → 587 → 573 → 622 (dead-cat bounce) → 503 (breakdown) → 469/463 (distribution) → 405/387/375 (lower lows) → 292 (capitulation on 2026-02-05)
• Most recent daily behavior: after the capitulation low (~$292), price is basing and bouncing, but still inside a wider bearish structure.

1) Trend & structure (Dow Theory / swing analysis)

Daily swings

• Sequence is still lower highs + lower lows from mid‑Jan.
• The capitulation candle on 2026-02-05 (low ~292) followed by 02-06 rebound (close ~321) suggests seller exhaustion, but not a confirmed trend reversal.
• Key inflection levels from recent daily candles:
  • Support: $316–$320 (intraday/daily pivot), then $310, then $292
  • Resistance: $337, then $351, then $375–$386 (major)

Hourly swings (last ~24h)

• Hourly shows a rising sequence off the $313–$314 area toward $331.
• However, note: the move from ~319 (13:00) to ~331 (21:00) is recovering, but still below the intraday supply at ~$337.

Implication: short-term bounce inside a larger downtrend → probabilities favor mean-reversion down after tests of resistance, unless price breaks and holds above ~$337–$342.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal + pivots)

Immediate resistance (where sellers likely defend)

• $336.9–$337.1: today’s hourly high area (06:00 high ~337.08; daily high 336.99)
• $332.8–$333.3: prior intraday congestion (08:00 close 332.84; 09:00 high 335.76)

Immediate supports (where bids previously stepped in)

• $325.5–$327.0: multiple hourly closes and lows clustered
• $318.0–$320.0: large intraday pivot zone (13:00 close ~319.12; 14:00 low ~316.43; daily open ~318.41)
• $310–$314: base area from the prior day / start of rally leg

Implication: best risk-adjusted trades are typically taken near resistance to short (in a bearish macro) or near support to long (if playing the bounce). Given where price sits ($331), it’s closer to resistance than support.

3) Volatility & range (ATR-style reasoning)

• Recent daily ranges are large (e.g., 02-05 high 382 → low 292 = ~90; 02-06 range ~57).
• Today’s daily range so far: high ~337, low ~317 = ~20.

24h expectation: after a compression day, XMR often expands; with price near resistance, the higher-probability expansion is downward back into $320s unless $337 breaks.

4) Candlestick / price-action signals

Daily

• 02-05: strong bearish liquidation candle (breakdown)
• 02-06/02-07: rebound and stabilization (classic post-capitulation bounce)
• 02-08: drift lower close (318) = hesitation / weak follow-through
• 02-09: recovery close (331) but still below prior breakdown zones (375/386/405)

Hourly (microstructure)

• Clear push → pullback → higher push pattern into 21:00.
• But the last leg into ~331 is approaching a supply shelf (332–337) where earlier attempts stalled.

Implication: likely near-term exhaustion into 332–337 followed by pullback.

5) Moving-average logic (qualitative, based on series)

• With the collapse from ~460 (Jan 31 close 463.9) to ~331 now, price is almost certainly below the 20D/50D, implying trend pressure remains bearish.
• Short-term (hourly) is likely above its very short MAs due to the bounce—often a setup for retest + fade in bear regimes.

Implication: favors short entries at resistance, not chasing longs at $331.

6) Fibonacci retracement (swing high → capitulation low)

Using the major swing: High ~798.9 (Jan 14) to Low ~292.2 (Feb 5).

• 23.6% retrace ≈ 292 + 0.236*(506.7) ≈ $411
• 38.2% retrace ≈ $486

Price at $331 is barely off the low—this is still deep bear territory; rallies tend to be sold well before major fibs.

Implication: bounce can continue, but the dominant expectation is lower-high formation before any larger recovery.

7) Volume read (effort vs result)

• Extreme volume on the blow-off and then on the breakdown (mid‑Jan + Feb 5/6). That’s consistent with:
  • Distribution at highs
  • Capitulation and forced selling
• Post-capitulation volumes are lower, consistent with a relief rally, not strong accumulation yet.

Implication: rallies are vulnerable to being sold into.

8) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)

Base case (higher probability): pullback / consolidation lower

• Price likely tests $334–$337, fails to break/hold, then rotates down toward:
  • $325–$327, and possibly
  • $318–$320 (high-value pivot)

Bull case (lower probability): breakout continuation

• Clean hourly close(s) above $337–$342 could squeeze to $350–$352.

Bear case (tail risk): breakdown back to base

• Loss of $318 increases odds of revisiting $310–$314, and then $292.

Net: With price sitting near resistance and within a dominant daily downtrend, the best edge for the next 24h is a short (Sell) looking for mean-reversion back to the pivot band.

Trade plan (1-day tactical)

Decision: Sell (Short)

• Optimal open (entry): place the short into resistance rather than market-selling here.
  • Preferred entry zone: $335.80 (near today’s highs, below the ~$337 rejection point)
• Take-profit (close): aim for the next strong demand pocket:
  • $321.50 (aligns with the 320–323 pivot region and prior hourly support)

This setup targets a rotation from resistance back to value/support over the next 24 hours.

Note: This is a technical, short-horizon view; crypto can gap on news/liquidity. Use risk controls (stop, sizing) accordingly.