XMR Post-Capitulation Bounce: Tactical Long Setup Toward 347–348 Amid a Larger Downtrend

Market snapshot (XMR)

• Current price: 335.36
• Context (daily): A major downtrend from the blow-off top area (~798.9 high on 2026-01-14) into a capitulation low (~278 on 2026-02-06), followed by a rebound and short-term stabilization.
• Last daily candle (2026-02-10): O/H/L/C 334.96 / 347.93 / 320.52 / 335.36 → wide range, close near open (indecision after a bounce).
• Intraday (hourly) structure (last ~24h): Spike up into ~347.45 early, then long fade/sideways, then late-session ramp from ~322 → 335.8 (momentum recovery into the close).

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1) Trend & structure (Dow Theory / market structure)

Higher timeframe (daily)

• Primary trend: Still bearish (series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-Jan).
• Recent structural event: 2026-02-05 daily breakdown to ~292 with an even deeper intraday extension on 2026-02-06 (~278) = capitulation / liquidation-type move.
• Post-capitulation behavior: Bounce to ~335 area suggests the market is trying to build a base, but it has not yet reclaimed key breakdown levels (notably the ~370–390 prior support band).

Short timeframe (hourly)

• Clear late-day higher low sequence: ~320.5 (day low) → consolidation 322–329 → breakout to 335.8.
• This indicates short-term bullish momentum, but occurring inside a larger downtrend (classic bear-market bounce conditions).

Implication: Next 24h bias is mean-reversion upward / continuation of the bounce, unless price loses 320–322 again.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal levels + pivots)

Key supports

• 320–322: Intraday demand zone (multiple hourly touches; bounce origin).
• 310: Prior day (02-08) low region.
• 292: Major breakdown close (02-05 close ~292.43).
• 278: Capitulation wick low (02-06 low).

Key resistances

• 338–342: Prior intraday congestion and rejection area (seen around 02:00–04:00 and earlier chop).
• 347–348: Intraday spike high zone (failed push).
• 360–365: Bigger overhead supply (prior daily structure; also near the 02-03/02-04 area).

Implication: Upside is likely capped first at 342, then 348. Clean acceptance above 348 opens room toward 360–365.

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3) Candlestick / price action read

• Daily 02-10 is a high-volatility doji-ish candle: strong excursion both ways, close back near open.
• After a capitulation and rebound, this often signals battle between shorts covering and dip buyers vs. overhead sellers.
• Hourly end-of-session push suggests buyers won the last part of the session, which tends to carry some continuation into the next session—particularly if 330 holds on pullbacks.

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4) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)

• Recent daily ranges are very large:
  • 02-05: ~90 range (382→292)
  • 02-06: ~57 range (335→278)
  • 02-10: ~27 range (348→321)
• Volatility is contracting from the peak (capitulation) but remains elevated.

Implication: Next 24h likely still sees wide swings, but with a mild upward drift as volatility compresses and price re-centers above the bounce zone.

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5) Momentum/oscillator inference (RSI/MACD style, derived from price swings)

(Exact indicator values not computed here; inference based on sequence and magnitude.)

• The 01-14 → 02-06 collapse strongly implies RSI was deeply oversold at/near the low.
• The rebound from ~278 to mid-330s suggests momentum mean reversion is underway.
• However, the failure to hold above ~347 and the quick fade implies bearish MACD regime likely still negative on daily, meaning rallies can be sold until trend flips.

Implication: Short-term up, medium-term still down → trade selection favors tactical long with tight invalidation rather than chasing a bigger trend reversal.

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6) Volume / participation

• Daily volume was very high during the selloff and bounce (liquidation + repositioning). 02-10 daily volume (~87.9M) is lower than panic days but still active.
• Hourly volume clusters appear around the late push (18:00–21:00) which supports the idea of real participation in the bounce rather than a purely illiquid wick.

Implication: Supports a bounce continuation scenario more than an immediate breakdown.

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7) Fibonacci / retracement framework (from capitulation low)

Using ~278 (02-06 low) to ~347.9 (02-10 high) as the active swing:

• 38.2% retrace of that upswing sits roughly in the 321–322 area (matches observed support).
• This confluence makes 320–322 a key line: holding it keeps the rebound structure intact.

Implication: As long as ~321 holds, odds favor another attempt toward 342–348.

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8) Scenario plan (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): mild bullish continuation within bear bounce

• Expect pullback / retest of 330–332 (possibly 326–328) then another push toward 342–348.
• Probability: ~55–60%.

Bear case: bounce fails, returns to base support

• Lose 320–322 → quick drop risk toward 310, then 292.
• Probability: ~35–40%.

Bull case: stronger squeeze

• Break and accept above 348 → extension toward 360–365.
• Probability: ~10–15% (requires follow-through demand).

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Trade conclusion (24h tactical)

Given:

• Capitulation rebound + volatility contraction,
• Strong late-session hourly recovery,
• Confluence support at 320–322,

I favor a Buy (Long) for the next 24h as a tactical bounce trade, with the understanding this is counter-trend versus the larger daily downtrend.

Optimal open (entry) price

• Avoid chasing at 335 into resistance clusters.
• Prefer entering on a pullback into prior breakout/acceptance:
  • Open (buy) near: 331.2 (pullback to 330–332 zone).

Target (take profit)

• First meaningful resistance band is 347–348.
  • Close (take profit): 347.0

(Risk note for execution: If price fails and loses ~320 on an hourly basis, the long thesis is invalidated quickly.)