AI-Powered Predictions for Crypto and Stocks

XMR icon
XMR
▼
Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$339.8
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-02-11
22:00
Analyzed

Monero Price Analysis Powered by AI

XMR at a Counter‑Trend Bounce: Fade the 349–352 Supply Zone as Bear Trend Still Dominates

Market read (XMR/USD) — context and regime

  • Current price: 345.37
  • Timeframe mix provided: Daily candles (mid‑Nov 2025 → Feb‑11 2026) + Hourly candles (Feb‑10 22:00 → Feb‑11 21:58).
  • Regime shift: After the Jan 11–14 blow‑off top (558 → 798 intraday high; close ~713), XMR entered a persistent distribution → downtrend with sharp liquidation legs.

1) Trend structure (Dow Theory + swing mapping)

Daily swings

  • Major peak: Jan‑14 high ~798.91.
  • Successive lower highs/lows:
    • Jan‑20 close ~503 (first major breakdown)
    • Feb‑01 close ~404 (continuation)
    • Feb‑05 close ~292 (capitulation day; very wide range).
  • Since Feb‑05: attempted basing / rebound: 292 → 321 → 329 → 318 → 334 → 344–345.

Inference: The primary trend remains bearish (lower highs from 798 → 648 → 498 → 394 → 357), but the immediate trend from Feb‑05 low is a counter‑trend recovery.

Hourly structure (micro trend)

  • Feb‑11 early spike to 361.05 (01:00) then a pullback into ~336–340, then rebound to 351.79 (19:00), then drift back to 345.
  • This forms a range/coil with:
    • Resistance: 349–352, then 357–361
    • Support: 343–344, then 339–341, then 336–337

Inference: Short-term market is mean-reverting inside a range, with sellers defending 349–352 and buyers stepping in near 339–344.

2) Support/Resistance zoning (horizontal + event levels)

Key supports

  • 344–343: repeated hourly closes and last-hour support.
  • 340–339: multiple hourly lows (04:00, 06:00, 18:00 area).
  • 337–336: midday dip (11:00–15:00 cluster).
  • 334: prior daily pivot (Feb‑09 close 334.91).
  • 321–318: prior daily consolidation (Feb‑06–Feb‑08).
  • 292: capitulation low area (Feb‑05).

Key resistances

  • 348.8–352: repeated hourly rejection (00:00–01:00 highs; 19:00 push to 351.79).
  • 357.6–361.0: day’s high band (daily high 357.62; hourly high 361.05).
  • 374–386: prior daily breakdown zone (Feb‑02 to Feb‑04 region).

3) Moving averages (trend filters, approximated from daily sequence)

Given the strong January surge and steep February drawdown:

  • Fast MAs (5–10D) likely turned up slightly since Feb‑05 due to the rebound, but remain below medium MAs.
  • 20D/50D are almost certainly downward sloping and above price (overhead supply).

Implication: Any long trade is counter-trend vs the higher-timeframe downtrend; probability of chop and sell-into-rally remains high until price reclaims larger breakdown zones (374–386+).

4) Momentum (RSI / Stoch logic from price behavior)

Daily momentum

  • The Feb‑05 candle (382 → 292 close) suggests a momentum washout (RSI likely deeply oversold around that time).
  • Post-washout rebound to mid‑340s implies RSI recovery, but still likely below neutral 50 given the sequence of lower highs.

Hourly momentum

  • Two impulsive pushes (to ~361 and later to ~352) followed by failure indicates waning upside momentum near resistance.

Implication (next 24h): Momentum favors range continuation or a minor pullback unless 352 breaks cleanly with volume.

5) Volatility (ATR / Bollinger reasoning)

  • Daily ranges expanded massively during Jan 11–20 and again on Feb‑05 (very high true range) → elevated ATR.
  • After Feb‑06 onward, ranges compressed relative to Feb‑05, but remain larger than “quiet” regimes.
  • Hourly shows compression between ~336 and ~352, often a prelude to expansion.

Implication: Next 24h likely features a volatility expansion attempt; direction will be dictated by whether 343/339 support breaks or 352 resistance breaks.

6) Volume / participation (what we can infer)

  • Daily volume spikes:
    • Jan‑12 to Jan‑14 (blow‑off) extremely high volume.
    • Feb‑05 liquidation volume elevated again.
  • Typical pattern: blow‑off top → distribution → liquidation → reflexive rebound.

Implication: Current rebound can be a dead‑cat / mean reversion within a bear trend; rallies often get sold at prior supply zones (here: 349–361 first, then 374–386).

7) Price patterns (classical)

  • Falling knife → capitulation → base attempt: Feb‑05 looks like capitulation; subsequent candles show stabilization.
  • Bear flag / descending channel perspective: The rebound from 292 to 345 could be interpreted as the “flag” leg after a sharp drop from ~404 → 292.
  • Range box (hourly): 336–352 box, with midpoint ~344.

Implication: Pattern bias for next 24h slightly bearish within the box unless breakout above 352 holds.

8) Fibonacci retracement (from Feb‑05 low to Feb‑11 high)

Take swing low ~278.01 (Feb‑06 daily low) to swing high ~361.05 (Feb‑11 hourly high):

  • Range ≈ 83.04
  • 38.2% retrace: 361.05 − 0.382×83.04 ≈ 329.3
  • 50% retrace: ≈ 319.5
  • 61.8% retrace: ≈ 309.7

Price at 345 is above these, meaning the rebound has held well. But near-term trades are more sensitive to the box levels (343/339 and 352).

9) Scenario map (next 24 hours)

Base case (most likely): Range-to-slightly-down

  • Expect mean reversion toward 343–340 support.
  • Sellers defend 349–352; upside attempts fade.
  • Probable 24h path: 345 → 342/340 → 346/348 (chop).

Bear case (second most likely): Support break + continuation

  • If 339–340 breaks on an hourly close and retest fails:
    • Next magnets: 336–337, then 334, then 329–321.

Bull case (least likely but actionable): Breakout above supply

  • If price reclaims 352 and holds (hourly close above + successful retest):
    • Next target zone: 357–361.
    • Above 361 opens 374–386, but that’s more than a 24h move unless vol spikes.

Trading decision (24h tactical)

Given:

  • Higher-timeframe downtrend and overhead supply,
  • Repeated rejections in 349–352 and 357–361,
  • Current price sitting near the midrange,

Bias: Sell (short) — expecting either a fade from resistance or a drift back toward support over the next 24h.

Optimal execution levels (based on current structure)

  • Open (sell) price: place at 349.80 (ideal: into the 349–352 supply zone; improves R:R versus shorting midrange at 345).
    • Rationale: aligns with repeated hourly rejection zone; reduces chance of getting chopped immediately.
  • Close (take profit) price: 339.80
    • Rationale: targets the lower bound of the box (339–340), where bids have appeared multiple times; realistic within 24h.

(If price never rallies to 349.8, the short entry is not triggered; that’s preferable to shorting the midpoint.)