Monero (XMR) at a Crossroad: Failed Bounce Signals Another Push Lower in the Next 24 Hours

XMR (Monero) — 24H Technical Outlook (based on provided daily + hourly OHLC)

1) Multi-timeframe structure

Daily trend (swing / context)

• Major impulse up into mid‑Jan: price accelerated from ~471 (Jan 10) to ~713 close (Jan 14) with an intraday peak near 799 → classic blow‑off / climax behavior.
• Distribution → sharp markdown followed: multiple lower highs and a decisive break down to ~503 (Jan 20 close).
• Continuation lower into early Feb: breakdown from ~404 (Feb 1 close) to ~292 (Feb 5 close).
• Current regime: since Feb 5 low, price has been range‑to‑weak rebound, but still below prior breakdown pivots (360–390 area) and far below Jan’s distribution zone.

Conclusion (daily): Primary trend remains bearish (lower highs, lower lows). The Feb 5 capitulation low created a near-term base, but the rebound has not repaired key damage.

Hourly trend (execution / immediate momentum)

From 2026‑02‑11 22:00 to 2026‑02‑12 21:58:

• High early in the session around 353.33 (02‑12 03:00 hour), then a persistent sequence of lower highs.
• A notable intraday leg down from ~339–341 into ~327 (02‑12 16:00 hour low area) and then weak stabilization.
• Current price 329.10 is near the lower half of the day’s range and well below the earlier 352–353 supply.

Conclusion (hourly): Intraday bias is bearish-to-neutral; selling pressure dominated after failing near 352–353.

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2) Key support/resistance mapping (price action)

Immediate resistance (supply)

• 331.7–333.0: local hourly reaction highs (18:00–19:00 hours). Likely first sell zone.
• 339–342: prior intraday balance area before breakdown (08:00–15:00 cluster). “Return-to-origin” supply.
• 349.5–353.3: session top / rejection zone; strongest overhead supply.

Immediate support (demand)

• 324.3–326.2: intraday lows (20:00 and 16:00). First meaningful support.
• 317–318: prior daily close region (Feb 8 close ~318.33) and rebound origin.
• 292–300: capitulation base (Feb 5 low ~292). Major structural support.

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3) Trend + pattern diagnostics

Lower-high sequence / falling channel feel

Hourly swing points show: 353 → 352 → 342 → 339 → 333 (approx.) indicating a descending structure. Price is consolidating near 329; typically, unless reclaimed quickly above 339–342, this favors continuation down.

Breakdown–retest logic

• Price spent many hours building value around 339–341 then broke down to 327.
• The rebound only recovered to ~331–332, failing to retake the breakdown shelf.

This is consistent with a bear flag / weak base rather than a strong reversal.

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4) Volatility & range estimates (practical)

Using the most recent daily candle (Feb 12):

• Daily High ~352.90 / Low ~324.35 → range ≈ 28.55 (~8.7% of price).
• That’s elevated volatility for a “normal” day, implying the next 24h can easily swing ±10–15 dollars without invalidating the intraday thesis.

Implication: entries should be placed at resistance (for shorts) rather than market-chasing in the middle.

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5) Momentum (price behavior proxy)

While exact RSI/MACD aren’t computed numerically here, the sequence of hourly closes and failure to reclaim broken levels indicates:

• Momentum turned down after the early spike to 353.
• The late-day bounce is corrective (small) relative to the sell leg.

A typical momentum read would be below midline and consistent with bearish continuation unless price reclaims 339–342 and holds.

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6) Volume notes (from provided data)

• Daily volume has been heavy during the early‑Feb breakdown (notably Feb 5–6) and remains meaningful.
• On the hourly series, the largest prints are around 18:00–20:00, coinciding with the stabilization near 327–331. This can be interpreted as two-sided trade (some covering + some accumulation), but structure still favors sellers because price did not reclaim prior value (339–342).

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7) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price attempts a minor retracement into 331.7–333 and possibly 339–342.
• Sellers defend those levels; price rotates back down toward 326, with risk of a sweep to 318–320 if broader market pressure returns.

Bull invalidation / alternate case:

• If XMR reclaims 342 and holds above it (acceptance), then a rotation to 349–353 becomes likely. Given today’s strong rejection from 352–353, that area would still be expected to cap the first retest.

Given the dominant daily downtrend and the intraday failed recovery, the next 24h skew is slightly bearish.

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Trade Plan (spot/derivative style)

Bias: Sell (Short)

Rationale summary:

• Daily trend remains bearish below broken pivots.
• Hourly shows lower highs and failure to retake breakdown shelf (339–342).
• Strong overhead supply at 349–353.

Optimal entry (open price)

• Prefer to short on a pullback into resistance rather than at 329.
• Best risk/reward zone from this tape: 332.8 (within 331.7–333 local resistance).

Take-profit (close price)

• First strong support zone sits at 324–326; extension support at 318.
• For a 24h horizon, set TP at 321.5 (targets a breakdown continuation beyond first support while still realistic within a day’s volatility).

(If price cannot retrace to the entry zone and instead breaks below ~324, a breakdown-entry plan would be different; but for this request, the “optimal open” is the pullback short.)