1. Trend Analysis – Medium and Short-Term

Examining XRP’s price action since the March 2025 highs, the clear short-term trend is downward. After a sharp rally peaking at $2.97 on Mar 2, the price corrected and established lower highs and lower lows. The initial drop to $2.02 (Mar 10) established a clear support, with subsequent attempts to rally forming a descending triangle formation on the daily chart. Since mid-April, XRP has struggled to break above $2.60, failing multiple times and producing a series of progressively lower highs – a classic sign of weakening bullish momentum.

Recent action (late May) saw support at ~$2.14 break fleetingly, but buyers have so far maintained the price above $2.17-$2.19. However, rebounds lack conviction and volume compared to prior bounces, indicating bearish pressure outweighs buying interest.

2. Volume Profile

Volume spikes on recent down candles (see May 23, May 30) indicate capitulation phases and persistent selling pressure. Recovery bounces show diminishing volume – a hallmark of bear market rallies rather than trend reversals. This suggests that more aggressive sellers remain in play relative to buyers at current price levels.

3. Chart Patterns – Descending Triangle & Support Loss

A descending triangle can be drawn from the $2.60-$2.64 resistance zone and the horizontal support at $2.19-$2.20. This bearish formation has gradually narrowed over the last three weeks, and as of today’s close ($2.19), XRP sits right on the triangle’s support edge. False intraday breaks below $2.17 further erode buy-side confidence. In classical technical analysis, descending triangle breakdowns often result in measured moves lower – with targets derived by subtracting the triangle’s height ($2.64 - $2.19 ≈ $0.45) from the breakdown level ($2.19), targeting $1.74 in a full breakdown scenario.

4. Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)

• 50-day SMA trended downward since late March, currently around $2.30-$2.40, acting as dynamic resistance.
• 20-day EMA also slopes downward and is currently just above price at $2.22, capping upside.
• Repeated rejections at or near these averages confirm that sellers are defending rallies.

5. RSI, MACD, Stochastic Oscillator

• RSI (14d): Just above 40, showing mild oversold but not extreme. No reversal divergence present.
• MACD Histogram: Recently crossed below the signal line; bearish momentum increasing.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Mid-range but curling downwards, favoring downside pressure resumption.

6. Ichimoku Cloud

• Price trades below its cloud on both daily and 4-hour frames
• Leading Span A sloping lower, base line trending down – strong bearish confirmation

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• From the Mar 2 high to the Mar 10 low, the 61.8% retrace ($2.51) was rejected mid-March and again in early May.
• The most recent swing low ($2.13) sits near the 78.6% retrace. Persistent failures to reclaim higher Fibonacci levels highlight failed bull attempts.

8. Candlestick Analysis

Recent daily bars are mostly small-bodied with lower shadows, indicating subpar demand at lows and occasional, fleeting dips – but not yet a strong reversal. Several recent sessions formed lower closes, painting a bearish continuation picture.

9. Support and Resistance

• Immediate Support: $2.17 (major), then $2.13, further $2.02
• Resistance: $2.22 (EMA20), $2.31 (SMA50), $2.45 (swing high)

10. Order Flow & Depth

Intraday market depth (hourly data on May 30) shows repeated failed rallies above $2.22, snapbacks to ~$2.17-$2.19, and no large-volume buy candles. Accumulation appears absent below $2.20, while supply zones reappear on any uptick.

11. Volatility & ATR

The daily ATR (Average True Range) has reduced from the April peaks, indicating that rangebound trade may soon be followed by volatility expansion. When volatility contracts in a downtrend at key support, it often precedes a forced move – usually in trend direction (currently down).

12. Summary and Tactical Decision

• Downtrend since March, punctuated by failed rallies
• Bearish chart pattern resolving at critical support
• Moving averages/indicators confirm downside momentum
• No evidence of accumulation at current levels; increasing sell volume
• Support is fragile and increasingly vulnerable; no positive divergences

Short-Term (Next 24h) Outlook

Probability favors a breakdown below $2.17, with target moves toward $2.13 and, on extension, possibly as low as $2.03. Upside rallies likely capped at $2.22-$2.23 unless reversed by major volume shift (not evident in present order flow).

Decision: SELL

Entry: On a break and confirmed close below $2.19 (current price), ideally selling on retests near $2.19-$2.20 for optimal risk/reward. Target: First take profit at $2.13 (minor support), secondary extension target at $2.03 if momentum accelerates.

NOTE: If price closes decisively above $2.23 on strong volume, bearish outlook would be invalidated.

Risk Management: Consider stoploss above $2.23.

Conclusion

All technical and order flow signals align to favor a sell (short) position at current prices with a $2.13 target for the next 24 hours.

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