Comprehensive Technical Analysis of XRP (2025-06-02)

1. Price Structure & Trend Overview

• Daily Chart Analysis:
  • From March through early May, XRP demonstrated established volatility swinging between the $2.00 and $2.65 range, including several sharp downswings from the $2.60s to below $2.20 (see 2025-03-06 to 2025-03-10, and 2025-05-12 to 2025-05-16). The price then consolidated mainly between $2.13 to $2.35 for several weeks, before a breakdown on 2025-05-30, reaching $2.13-$2.14 lows.
  • The current price ($2.1764) remains near recent lows and only slightly above the support established during the previous two major drawdowns in May and late March. There is no major upward momentum yet, as the asset failed to meaningfully reclaim and hold above $2.23–$2.24 over the last few sessions.

2. Volume & Momentum Signals

• Volume:

  • Low trading volumes in the recent sessions (1.7M–2.1M daily), compared to early-to-mid May (often 3M+), indicate declining trading interest and momentum. Spikes in volume near selloffs (notably 2025-05-30 and 2025-06-01) signal capitulation but haven't catalyzed a meaningful reversal, confirming weak buy-side conviction.
  • Intraday the hourly volumes are subdued with peaks near session opens/closes, see low volume on quick price upticks (2.17–2.18) and steadier volume on downswings to 2.15–2.14 areas.

• RSI (Inferred):

  • The repeated failure to sustain rallies past $2.19–$2.20 suggests RSI remains in neutral-to-bearish territory, likely drifting in the 40s on a daily basis.

• MACD (Inferred):

  • The momentum oscillator is likely confirming a negative (bearish) crossover, with shorter moving averages sloping downward, attuning with the mid-May breakdown.

3. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Supports:
  • $2.14–$2.15 (local multi-day support, repeatedly tested June 1–2, and previously end of May)
  • $2.09 (March–April swing low and the session low of 2025-03-31, ex-supply zone now demand)
• Resistances:
  • $2.20–$2.23 (congestion zone: multiple failed rallies, previous support now turned resistance)
  • $2.28–$2.32 (prior consolidation before recent breakdown)

4. Chart Pattern Analysis

• Descending Channel: Since the rejection at $2.60+ in late March, lower highs and lower lows form a clear descending channel on the daily timeframe.
• Bearish Flag: Post-May 29, a consolidation flag pattern has formed, which usually breaks down given the preceding sharp drop.
• No clear reversal signals: Daily candles show weak closes near the lows; no engulfing bullish reversals detected.

5. EMA/SMA (Moving Averages)

• Key MAs (Inferred):
  • 20-period and 50-period MAs are likely trending downward, positioned above current price near $2.20 and $2.26 respectively, acting as dynamic resistance.
• Death Cross: If plotted, the short EMA dipping below the long-term suggests further downtrend.

6. Additional Indicators (Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR)

• Stochastic:
  • Presumed oversold but not yet showing a buy cross — bottoming but unresolved.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price hugging the lower band, reflecting persistent bear pressure; low volatility contraction could lead to expansion lower.
• ATR (Volatility):
  • Post-breakdown, ATR has picked up; continued high ATR means increased risk of further large moves, likely downward given prevailing trend.

7. Order Book Inference & Market Sentiment

• Liquidity clusters and market structure:
  • Heavy sell walls likely at the $2.20–$2.23 region where previous support broke down; thin bids below $2.15 into $2.09, implying a risk of acceleration lower if that support fails.
  • Sentiment, per price action, remains cautious with sellers dominating any rally attempt.

8. Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Retracement

• Wave count:
  • Recent action fits Wave C of an ABC correction, with another leg lower likely before a relief bounce.
• Fib Levels:
  • $2.13–$2.15 aligns with the 76.4% retrace of March's swing low to May high.

9. Conclusion & Next 24h Prediction

• Immediate bias: Bearish.
  • Failed attempts to recapture $2.20, persistent selling pressure, lack of bullish reversal signals, and breakdown below key moving averages all point to further downside.
• Expected Move:
  • Anticipate a test and potential breach of the $2.14–$2.15 support in the next 12–24 hours.
  • If this zone fails, fast drop toward $2.09 is possible (March–April lows), which should attract short-term buyers and trigger a relief rally.
  • Upside capped at $2.20–$2.23 barring a solid reversal setup.

10. Trading Strategy

• Short/Sell Strategy Favorable:
  • Current setup supports a short position initiated near $2.18 (entry on a weak bounce or as retest of mini-resistance).
  • Target the next major downside support at $2.10 for covering/take profit.
  • Tight stop just above $2.20 to limit losses in case of unexpected bullish reversal.

Risk Note

• A squeeze above $2.21–$2.23 may create a whipsaw; stay disciplined on position sizing and stops.