XRP (XRP) Price Analysis for June 4, 2025 – June 5, 2025

1. Overview and Context

XRP's current price is $2.2044, marking a significant retracement from recent highs in the $2.60 area observed in early March. The last 30 days have seen notable volatility, characterized by sharp rallies and equally swift corrections. The recent candle patterns and intraday price action indicate heightened uncertainty but establish key zones for price action in the immediate future.

2. Trend Analysis (Price Action and Market Structure)

• Medium-Term Trend:
  • From early March to early April, XRP experienced a strong downtrend, falling from $2.60 into the $1.80–$2.00 zone. This steep decline was followed by a sustained period of sideways movement between $2.00–$2.25, with occasional upward spikes, indicating a consolidation phase.
• Recent Price Action:
  • Over the last two weeks, the price retested highs around $2.60 (peaking on 13–15 May), but failed to maintain momentum, rolling over into a series of lower highs and lower lows.
  • The past three days have seen decisive bearish candles with a test and break below $2.25, culminating in today’s price at $2.2044—a potential support zone.
• Micro-Trend Shift:
  • Examination of the hourly candles over the past 24 hours reveals a stair-step pattern downward with weaker bounces from the lows and strong rejections near $2.25–$2.26. Intraday volatility persists, but with weaker upside.

3. Volume Analysis

• Decreasing Volume on Rallies:
  • The April-to-May upward attempts were accompanied by diminishing volume, suggesting weakening buying interest above $2.30–$2.40 levels.
• Spike on Selloffs:
  • Significant sell candles, especially over the past week, show increased volume on down moves, meaning sellers are currently dominant.
• Today's Volume:
  • Recent intraday candles show only modest volume on upticks, supporting the idea of a persisting bearish sentiment.

4. Support & Resistance Levels (Horizontal Levels)

• Major Support: $2.18–$2.20 (just below current price)—recent lows and the base of the May consolidation.
• Secondary Support: $2.13–$2.15 (pivot from late May/early June mini-reversal and a shelf for previous bear rallies).
• Major Resistance: $2.25–$2.26 (level where bounces have been repeatedly rejected in the last 48 hours).
• Long-Term Resistance/Breakout: $2.30–$2.36 (zone of failed rally attempts across May/June).

5. Technical Indicators

a) RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily: Estimated around 42–45, reflecting neither deep oversold nor overbought, but with persistent bearish leaning. Not yet at extreme reversal levels.
• Hourly: Dipping into low 40s, with many bounces failing near neutrality, again highlighting weak buying pressure.

b) MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily: Bearish crossover (signal line above MACD), histogram negative. Momentum divergence persists since the mid-May failure at $2.60.
• 1H/4H: Momentum remains negative, with short spikes corresponding to failed bounces.

c) Moving Averages

• 200-day EMA: Estimated near $2.38 (resistance overhead). Price is decisively trading below.
• 50-day EMA: Falling and currently near $2.25–$2.27, acting as dynamic resistance, capping recent attempts to push higher.

d) Bollinger Bands

• BBs are tightening, indicating an impending move. Price is hugging the lower band, and repeatedly rejecting any mean reversion toward the midline, suggesting trend continuation favoring the downside.

e) ATR (Average True Range / Volatility)

• Volatility remains elevated, with the daily ATR in the $0.05–$0.10 range. This supports the possibility of rapid short-term moves.

f) Fibonacci Retracement (From March Highs to April Lows)

• Data points: March highs $2.60, April mini-lows $1.80.
• Key retracement levels:
  • 38.2% ($2.21)
  • 50% ($2.20)
  • 61.8% ($2.29)
  • Current price is oscillating just below the 38.2%-50% range—failure to reclaim these levels is bearish.

6. Chart Patterns & Candle Formations

• Bearish Engulfing (Daily): Seen on May 12–13 and again June 3–4—historically trigger further moves lower.
• Multi-candle Lower Highs: Each bounce over the last 20 days forms lower highs, with compressed ranges—a classic sign of distribution before a breakdown.
• Descending Triangle (4H/1D): Flat support near $2.20 and lower highs since late May—often resolves with a breakdown.

7. Order Book & External Sentiment (Proxied via Volume/Patterns)

• Orderbook suggests sell walls above $2.25, and lack of strong buy walls until $2.15.
• No evidence of exhaustion in selling—no bullish divergence in recent lows.
• Macro/Market Context: If we add typical June mid-term crypto weakness to technicals, risk skews downward. No obvious fundamental catalyst for a reversal.

8. Probability/Scenario Forecasting

• Bearish Base Case (60%+ Probability): Breakdown toward $2.15 or $2.13, test of lower supports.
• Neutral Bounce (25%): Limited technical bounce toward $2.23–$2.25 area, then more selling.
• Bullish Reversal (15%): Only if $2.26+ is reclaimed on strong volume—a scenario not currently supported by data.

9. Strategic Recommendation

• Best R/R trade: SELL/SHORT XRP near $2.20–$2.21, targeting a swift move to prior support near $2.135–$2.14.
• Aggressive traders can build shorts on weak bounce attempts toward $2.23–$2.24 (stop-loss above $2.26).

10. Final Conclusion

Given the multiple converging signs—bearish pattern, trend and momentum confirmation, key support tests, and lack of bullish divergence—the optimal position is to SELL (short) XRP at current levels and on failed bounces below resistance.

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Recommended Trade Setup

• Open Short Position: $2.204
• Target/Take Profit: $2.135 (support zone, previous acceptance and bounce area)
• (Suggested Stop Loss: $2.26 for risk management)

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Technical Risks to Trade

• Sudden shift in overall crypto sentiment or breaking market news could trigger a sudden reversal. Presence of hidden buyers just below current price may cause a quick bounce. Nevertheless, technical edge stands with bears barring a surprise.

Summary:

• Price Breakdown Pattern
• Bearish Momentum on Volume and Indicators
• No Strong Support Until $2.13–$2.14
• Weakness on Any Uptick

A clear SELL/SHORT setup emerges for XRP in the next 24 hours.