XRP Technical Analysis & 24-Hour Outlook (as of June 18, 2025)

Step 1: Chart Pattern Recognition & Trend Analysis

• Intermediate Trend: Reviewing the daily chart, XRP experienced a volatile uptrend through late April and May, peaking near $2.64 (May 12–14). Since then, it has endured a correction and entered a range-bound phase with visible lower highs and higher lows, forming a large symmetrical triangle from late May onward.
• Recent Price Action: The last week featured a false breakdown to $2.14–2.15, followed by a quick mean-reversion up to ~$2.24, but price continually failed to break above $2.24–$2.25 resistance. Currently, price is $2.174, testing the middle of the range.
• Short-Term Momentum: Hourly data shows a rebound from $2.13–$2.15 lows with multiple attempts to push above $2.17–$2.18, but upside momentum is stalling near this resistance, implying sellers re-enter on rallies. The price is bouncing inside a $2.13–$2.18 band over 24 hours, which is a classic bear flag or consolidation after a pullback.

Step 2: Volume & Volatility Analysis

• Volume: Volume spiked on down days (notably June 16 and 17) compared to up days, indicating distribution on price strength and accumulation on weakness. The current bounce to $2.17 shows declining volume—weak bullish conviction.
• ATR (Average True Range): Daily ATR is about $0.08–$0.10, showing moderate volatility. The hourly ATR is compressing, forewarning a volatility expansion soon—likely a move out of the current range.

Step 3: Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

• 20/50/200 SMA (Daily):
  • 20 SMA: Currently below price at $2.16—recently tested as support.
  • 50 SMA: Sits near $2.19, now acting as overhead resistance.
  • 200 SMA: Rising below at $2.06, primary long-term support.
• MACD (Daily, inferred): Recent bear cross with histogram negative but flattening, indicating bearish momentum is winding down, but no bullish confirmation yet.
• RSI (Daily/Hourly):
  • Daily RSI: Approximately 47—neutral, with a slight upward tick from oversold.
  • Hourly RSI: Fluctuating 55–60 on minor rallies; little overbought/oversold edge.

Step 4: Support/Resistance & Fibonacci Levels

• Immediate Support: $2.13 (recent local low), next ~$2.08 (June 13). Psychological support at $2.10.
• Immediate Resistance: $2.18–$2.19 (50SMA and upper range boundary), then $2.24/$2.25 (swing highs, key breakdown point).
• Fibonacci Retracement (from May high $2.64 to June low $2.13):
  • 23.6%: $2.25 // 38.2%: $2.33 // 61.8%: $2.46
  • Current bounce is fading below 23.6%, usually a weak recovery signal.

Step 5: Candlestick & Order Flow Insights

• Recent Candles: Multiple dojis and upper wicks on the hourly/daily resistance zone ($2.17–$2.19), hinting at supply absorption and bearish pressure.

Step 6: Forecasting (Probabilistic Scenarios)

• Base Scenario (Prob. ~60%): Bearish continuation—loss of $2.16/2.15 leads to a re-test and likely break of $2.13 to $2.08, possibly $2.05, aligned with the larger descending triangle from the mid-May top.
• Bullish Alternative (Prob. ~35%): Temporary squeeze above $2.19 towards $2.24, but sellers defended this level in past rallies, lowering breakout odds without a volume surge.
• Low-probability Bull Run (5%): Sustained close >$2.25 would target $2.33 or higher, invalidating the bear scenario.

Step 7: Synthesis & Optimal Trade Construction

• Signals align for a tactical SHORT (Sell): The stalling bounce at resistance, inability to break the 38.2% retracement, weak volume on the bounce, and the bear flag structure favor a downside breakout.
• Optimal Sell Entry: $2.17–$2.18, very close to current price ($2.1742)—enter on minor upticks.
• Target: $2.08 (last breakdown level + major daily support), take profit just above for conservative management.

Step 8: Risk Management

• Invalidation: Stop-loss above $2.19 (50SMA/last failed high), small position sizing due to volatility.
• Reward/Risk: Entry $2.17, Target $2.08; Risk $0.02 (to $2.19), Potential Reward $0.09 ($2.17→$2.08); RR~4:1.

---

CONCLUSION: All major technical indicators (trend, volume, moving averages, pattern, oscillators) suggest short-term bearish risk outweighs bullish potential. Tactical short position into a retest/break of the $2.13–$2.08 zone is the setup with the highest reward-to-risk profile for the next 24 hours.