XRP Breakdown Looms: Bearish Momentum Signals More Downside Ahead

Detailed Technical Analysis of XRP – 2025-06-23

1. Overall Trend Examination (Daily and Intraday)

• Daily Chart Context:
  • XRP is currently priced at $2.0804 (2025-06-23 close), following a multi-month structure where the asset peaked near $2.64 (mid-May) and has been under persistent downward pressure since. Recent closes (from June 1 onward) consistently show lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish trend.
• Recent Volatility:
  • Notable recent daily swings: e.g., from $2.24 to $2.09 (June 5), culminating in frequent closes below previous day’s opens. Volume spikes (e.g., June 12, June 16, June 22) indicate distribution on lower price moves, suggesting heavy selling.
  • A sharp decline occurred on June 22 ($2.0577 open, $2.0140 close; low $1.91), signaling stop-run/liquidity sweep at prior support.

2. Support and Resistance

• Major Resistance Levels:
  • $2.20–$2.24 (confluence of former support Nov-May and daily closes in early June; many failed attempts to close above)
  • $2.14 (swing highs in recent intradays)
• Major Support Levels:
  • $1.96–$2.00 (intraday double bottom, last touched on June 22–23 hourly lows)
  • $2.06 (today’s intraday support, tested multiple times)

3. Intraday Price Action (Hourly Analysis)

• The last 24 hours show a volatile snap from $1.96 up to $2.08, with brief forays above $2.06 and lower highs every few hours. Buying attempts above $2.06 have repeatedly failed, while rebounds from $1.97–$2.00 have lacked follow-through.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume has surged on red candle days (e.g., June 12, June 22), which often precedes or confirms further bearish moves as sellers dominate liquidity.

5. Key Technical Indicators

• RSI (Momentum):
  • Estimating from price swings, RSI would likely be below 45 (on daily), indicating modest but sustained bearish momentum, below the neutral 50.
• MACD:
  • The short-term MA (e.g., 5 or 9), when compared to the longer-term (e.g., 21), would be trending downward. MACD bearish crossovers are likely present from June 8 forward, given consistent lower closes.
• Moving Averages:
  • The short-term (9–21 day) MA is curling lower, with price currently at or slightly below these averages, reinforcing the bear tilt.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price today is hugging the lower band since June 20, with occasional wicks beneath, signifying a strong downward channel and limited momentum for bullish reversals.

6. Candlestick Pattern Analysis

• Last few candles: frequent doji/hanging man structures, especially on June 22–23, indicating indecision and failed recovery attempts.
• Spinning tops and wicks on both sides suggest failed attempts both ways but buyers have been unable to reclaim key resistances.

7. Pattern Recognition & Market Structure

• Descending Channel:
  • Clear downtrending channel since mid-May, defined by steady lower highs and lows.
• Bear Flags:
  • Multiple days (June 10, June 14, June 20) show countertrend moves on lower volume, followed by heavier impulse selling.

8. Order Flow & Liquidity Analysis

• Each time price approaches $2.06–$2.10, supply increases abruptly (as seen in high volume red candles), causing quick rejections. This region is dominated by sellers.
• The bounce off $1.96–$2.00 is tepid; lack of decisive bounce after stop-run suggests no robust demand below.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Projecting from local high ($2.65) to recent low ($1.91), the 38.2% retracement is near $2.15, which matches current failed rally zones (confluence; strong resistance). Price is currently below the golden pocket retrace—bearish sign.

10. Sentiment & Market Psychology

• The pattern of repeated failed bounces and high red candle volumes points to a market where conviction to the upside is low and sellers step in on every minor rally.

11. Summary & 24-hour Price Prediction

• Given the above, XRP’s price structure is decisively bearish. Rallies are sold into, support levels are being pierced with increasingly aggressive volume, and attempted bounces lack momentum.
• Absent a meaningful catalyst, another test of the $1.96–$2.00 level appears imminent. If this level fails, a break toward $1.91 is likely. Should a snap-back rally occur, it is unlikely to break above $2.14–$2.18 where significant overhead supply will cap gains.
• Volatility is increasing: With surging volume on declines and weakness in bounce attempts, the risk/reward currently favors a short position.

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Conclusion: The technical, volume, and momentum characteristics of XRP point toward further downside. The optimal tactical decision is to sell/short at current or slightly higher price, targeting recent lows as the take-profit zone.