Comprehensive Technical Analysis of XRP as of 2025-06-24

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Daily Trend

• The daily chart reveals a persistent medium-term downtrend that began after the swing high at $2.6457 (2025-05-14) and the subsequent aggressive drop below $2.20 in early June. After hitting lows near $2.01 (2025-06-22), there is a moderate rebound toward the current $2.21 zone.

Recent Price Action

• In the last 4 days, bullish candles show higher lows, and today’s action pushed XRP up to $2.21, breaking resistance seen at $2.19–$2.20.
• Intraday volatility is moderately high, with recent hourly candles ranging $2.19–$2.21, showing indecision at this zone.

Step 2: Chart Patterns

• Double Bottom: Observable at $2.01–$2.02 (2025-06-22, 2025-06-23). The neckline is around $2.17–$2.19, which was broken decisively on high volume today.
• Support Zones: $2.01 (local low), $2.13–$2.15 (recent consolidation). Current session is above these, suggesting bullish pressure.
• Resistance Zones: $2.23–$2.25 (late May supply), $2.30 (psychological and previous swing high).
• Rising Channel (Short-term): Price is holding above the short-term upward trend line from the local bottom.

Step 3: Volume & Momentum

• A significant volume spike on the double-bottom breakout (2025-06-23 to 2025-06-24) confirms the reliability of the pattern.
• RSI (estimated from price swings): Recent strong bullish candles after deep oversold levels suggest a current RSI ≈ 58–62, not yet overbought.
• MACD (qualitative estimate): The MACD histogram would likely show a bullish crossover developing, consistent with the break of the neckline.

Step 4: Volatility & Market Structure

• Average daily range has increased, signaling heightened volatility—typically present before further aggressive moves.
• ATR (Average True Range) confirms expansion, indicating that recent lows ($2.01) and resistance ($2.25) are potential volatility targets.

Step 5: Moving Averages

• 20-day EMA: Likely around $2.17; price is now trading substantially above this, indicating a bullish short-term reversal.
• 50-day SMA: Near $2.22–$2.25; currently being tested, a close above here will further validate the bullish thesis.

Step 6: Oscillators & Sentiment

• Stochastic Oscillator: Rapid rise from oversold territory suggests momentum is with bulls, but no signs of exhaustion yet.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV): Rising alongside price, confirming accumulation.

Step 7: Fib Retracement & Price Projections

• March swing low ($1.64) to May swing high ($2.65):
  • 38.2% retracement = $2.25
  • 50% retracement = $2.15
  • 61.8% retracement = $2.06
• Price rebounded strongly just below the 61.8% Fibonacci and has broken above the 50% retracement, aiming for 38.2% at $2.25.

Step 8: Order Flow & Liquidity Zones

• Previously high volume nodes at $2.15 (now support), $2.23–$2.25 (next resistance target).
• No major sell walls reported at current price; order book likely thin until $2.25 and $2.30.

Step 9: Sentiment & Risk Factors

• Short-term sentiment is bullish on double-bottom completion, with relatively low immediate downside risk given firm support and momentum.
• The main risk is a false breakout above $2.21 failing to sustain above $2.23, triggering a bull trap. However, volume and structure suggest buyers remain in control.

Step 10: Synthesis and Trading Strategy

• Pattern Confirmation: Double bottom executed with momentum.
• Oscillator/Momentum: Bullish, but room before overbought.
• Trend/MAs: Short-term reversal above EMA, testing SMA.
• Volume/OBV: Supports price action.
• Fib Targets: $2.25 as initial take-profit.
• Risk: Downside to $2.15 minimal if trade moves quickly; stop-loss should be set below $2.15 to manage downside.

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Conclusion: Trading Decision

• The combination of a textbook double bottom, breakout with volume, and momentum confirmation suggests a high-probability long (Buy) setup.
• Buy (Long) XRP near current market price ($2.21); first target $2.25, with further extension to $2.30 possible if momentum continues.
• Optimal limit entry: $2.21 (pullback to neckline or minor dip expected intra-hour as traders book quick profits).
• Target: $2.25 (initial), $2.30 (secondary, for extended move traders)
• Stop-loss: Below $2.15 (where uptrend would be invalidated if broken)

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Recommendation: Enter Buy position at $2.21, target $2.25 in the next 24 hours, manage risk with stop below $2.15. All indicators support short-term bullish continuation toward resistance layer at $2.25, backed by pattern, volume, and momentum alignment.