XRP Technical Analysis – 2025-06-25

1. Trend Analysis:

Examining the daily chart over the prior 3 months, XRP has experienced pronounced volatility, with major swing highs (2.64, 2.65) and lows (1.64, 1.78). More recently, a rally from the June 21 bottom near 2.01 has propelled XRP toward a local resistance around 2.20–2.22. The prevailing short-term trend is moderately bullish, albeit within a wider sideways channel that has defined much of June.

2. Chart Patterns:

• Support/Resistance Zones:
  • Strong support emerges near 2.01–2.05 (recent triple test: June 21/22/23).
  • Resistance: 2.22–2.25 is validated by recent failed breakouts (June 13 high, June 24/25 session high).
  • The 2.19–2.20 region (current price) sits in the mid-range, suggesting near-term equilibrium.
• Short-Term Candles:
  • Recent intraday candles show upper wicks near 2.22, signalling supply.
  • June 25’s early session saw a bullish breakout to 2.22 with immediate rejection—indicative of overbought conditions and local exhaustion.
  • With the bounce from 2.01 now extended, profit taking is appearing.

3. Moving Averages:

• EMA10/EMA21 (Daily): The estimated 10EMA is ~2.17; price is slightly above both the short (10EMA) and medium-term (21EMA) averages, reflecting bullish momentum but no clear trend resumption.
• EMA200: Longer-term momentum remains bullish, as price is above this level, but the slope is flattening, corroborating the consolidation narrative.

4. Volume Analysis:

• Volume Spike: A multi-day surge in volume coincided with the 2.01 rebound, confirming buyer interest at key support. However, volume has dwindled as price approaches resistance—bearish divergence.
• Distribution Signs: As price neared 2.22, volume faded, and several intraday highs were rejected. Indicates larger players are unloading here.

5. RSI/Momentum Indicators:

• Daily RSI: Oscillating near 58—just below overbought. Advanced from ~35 at recent lows, but with lower highs as price neared resistance—a textbook sign of momentum loss.
• MACD: Bullish cross occurred as price broke above 2.10, but histogram is flattening. There is no renewed momentum confirmation.

6. Fibonacci Retracements:

• The impulse leg from 1.64 (Apr 7) to 2.65 (May 14) gives notable retracements:
  • 38.2% (2.25): Current resistance zone.
  • 50% (2.15–2.18): Current trading cluster. Provides rationale for price stalling here.
  • 61.8% (2.02): Major cited support.

7. Ichimoku Cloud:

• Kijun/Tenkan: Price is just above both lines—bullish alignment, but the Senkou Span (cloud) ahead is flat/thin, hinting at weak trend conviction and prime conditions for mean-reversion.

8. Volatility & ATR:

• ATR: Volatility has contracted post-June 23 rally. The Mean Price Range is tightening (~0.03–0.06 per day), indicating conditions are primed for a high-volatility move as indecision resolves.

9. Order Book/Order Flow Dynamics & Market Microstructure:

• Microstructure: June 25’s swings between 2.18 and 2.22 have drawn both sides into the market, but deeper liquidity sits at support (2.15, 2.05), while supply density remains between 2.21–2.25.
• Failed Highs: The last intraday attempt above 2.22 was forcefully rejected—typical for ‘bull traps’ near supply.

10. Elliott Wave/Structure Analysis:

• Likely ABC correction from May high: Wave A down to 2.01, Wave B up to 2.22, and a potential Wave C lower underway.

11. Sentiment & Additional Observations:

• Sentiment: Market has transitioned from fear/oversold to short-term optimism. But there is no evidence of trend continuation—market remains two-sided.

12. Short-Term Forecast (Next 24 Hours):

• Given repeated upside rejection at 2.22 and weakening volume, immediate upside is capped. Momentum indicators and order flow warn of downside risk.
• A short-term retracement to test the 2.16–2.18 support band is likely, with possible deeper probes toward 2.10 if sellers accelerate.
• Upside capped at 2.22–2.25 barring major news; any fake breakouts likely to be sold into.

13. Trading Strategy & Recommendation

• With XRP trading at 2.1991, just below a well-defined resistance and with exhaustion signs in both momentum and volume, odds favor a short (SELL) setup aiming to profit from a mean-reversion pullback.
• Optimal entry: Sell/Short at 2.20–2.21 to maximize risk/reward, ideally on a minor bounce.
• Profit target: 2.16 (the recent support cluster & EMA zone), with partials at 2.18 for active management.
• Stop Loss: Conservative risk management would suggest stops above 2.23 (above resistance).

Conclusion:

Short XRP at 2.20-2.21 with target at 2.16 in the next 24 hours. Market conditions favor a pullback over a breakout given supply absorption, momentum loss, and distribution signs at current levels. If 2.16 fails, subsequent downside may probe toward 2.10. Upside risk limited to 2.22–2.25 range barring fundamental catalysts.