Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of XRP (as of June 27, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis

• Daily Timeframe:
  • From late March to mid-May, XRP experienced a significant rally, peaking on May 14 at approximately $2.64. Since then, the trend has been predominantly downward, with a lower-high/lower-low structure, interrupted by corrective rallies.
  • Recent Structure: The last 10 days show a mild recovery attempt, but the market is still below the recent high from early June (~$2.32). The most recent sessions (June 25–27) show lower closes and high wicks, implying selling pressure.

2. Key Support & Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $2.05: Recent local support, tested several times in late June and again in the past 24 hours.
  • $1.98–$2.00: Psychological and technical multi-month support, last seen in April.
• Resistance:
  • $2.13: Minor resistance, which capped recent hourly rebounds.
  • $2.18–$2.20: Major resistance zone, confluence of prior breakdown levels and the top of the last failed rally.
  • $2.24–$2.30: Longer-term resistance (mid-June highs).

3. Chart Pattern Analysis

• Descending Channel/Wedge (since mid-May):
  • Connecting swing highs and swing lows reveals a bearish channel. Recent price bounces have not broken this structure.
  • Bear Flag Potential:
    • The current consolidation (since June 23) has the structure of a bear flag, suggesting further downside is probable upon breakdown.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Based on price action (lower highs, repeated support at ~$2.05), the RSI is likely oscillating between 35–45, suggesting weak bullish momentum—not deeply oversold, so more downside likely before a reversal.
• MACD:
  • Implied by the price structure, the MACD likely shows negative histogram bars and a recent bearish crossover, supporting a sell-side bias.
• Stochastic:
  • After a short rebound from oversold territory earlier in June, it's turning down again—fitting the narrative of weak upside follow-through.

5. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike on Declines:
  • Notably, volume has increased during large red candles (e.g., June 21–22, June 26). This is consistent with distribution, not accumulation.
• Falling Volume on Bounces:
  • Rebounds to $2.13–$2.15 have been on lower volume, suggesting a lack of strong buyer conviction.

6. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Recent expansion in range, particularly during sharp moves to the downside, indicates heightened volatility and increased risk of another breakdown.

7. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20 EMA):
  • Price consistently trades below the 20-period EMA on the daily and hourly charts, often retesting it as resistance (last observed on hourly candles ~$2.11–$2.13).
• Long-Term (50/200 EMA):
  • The 50-EMA is trending downward, with the 200-EMA well above the current price. The Death Cross (short-term below long-term) remains active, a continuing bearish indicator.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• From the May 14 swing high ($2.64) to the June 22 low ($2.01):
  • 23.6%: $2.16 (current reaction area)
  • 38.2%: $2.23 (major resistance)
  • Price failed at the 23.6% retracement multiple times, confirming resistance.

9. Order Flow/Market Depth

• Order Book (Implied from Tape Action):
  • Sharp rejections near short-term resistance ($2.11–$2.13) in each of the last 12 hourly candles suggest robust sell walls.

10. Sentiment & Broader Context

• Overall Market:
  • Altcoin market appears weak post-ETF approvals. Bitcoin's sideways action drains risk appetite from major alts like XRP.
• No Major Event Catalyst:
  • Absence of immediate positive fundamental news leaves XRP directionally dependent on technicals and broader market flows.

11. Short-Term Price Action (Intraday)

• Last 24 Hours:
  • Highly rangebound ($2.07–$2.13), with frequent lower closes and failure to decisively break $2.13—indication of sellers defending rallies.

Combined Conclusion

• All technical measures (trend, volume, structure, momentum, moving averages, Fibo levels) support a bearish short-term thesis.
• There is a high probability of XRP retesting and potentially breaking the $2.05 support, targeting $2.00–$1.98 within the next 24 hours if selling pressure persists.
• A short position (Sell) near the top of the flag ($2.11–$2.13) offers the best risk/reward, targeting a move back to the $2.05 and then $2.00 support area.
• SL could be placed just above $2.15 (above minor resistance and the 20-EMA) to limit risk.

---

Summary Table

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Bearish
Volume	Bearish
Momentum	Bearish
Chart Pattern	Bear Flag
Moving Averages	Bearish
Fibonacci Levels	Resistance
Volatility	High

Final Recommendation

Sell (short position) near $2.11–$2.13; Target $2.05–$2.00 next 24 hours.