XRP Squeezing for a Breakout: Technicals Signal Bullish Move Toward $2.24

Technical Analysis of XRP (Daily OHLC & Hourly Data as of June 28, 2025)

1. Trend Identification (Price Action & Structure)

• Recent Price Movement:
  • Last close: $2.1832
  • Opened June at $2.1792; currently $2.1832 (+0.2% this month)
  • May saw high volatility: range from $2.13 to $2.64 (mid-May peak), then gradual retracement.
  • Last week: Consolidation between $2.10 - $2.22 with a slight upward slope.
• Lows & Highs:
  • Higher lows since the June 22 swing ($2.0140, then $2.1663, $2.1859)
  • Highs remain capped below $2.22, indicating resistance, but the series of higher lows hints at upward pressure.
• Candle Structure (Last 3 Days):
  • June 26: Large lower wick: buyers stepped in after dip
  • June 27: Bullish candle, retook $2.14 -> $2.18
  • June 28 (hourly): Rangebound, alternating small-bodied candles, tight intraday range ($2.18 - $2.20)

2. Moving Averages (MA, EMA)

• 20-Day SMA/EMA:
  • SMA(20): ~$2.18; Price at $2.183, hugging the average
• 50-Day SMA/EMA:
  • SMA(50): ~$2.20; price is slightly below this key swing average
• 100-Day SMA:
  • SMA(100): ~$2.19
• Insight: When price sits between major MAs and is supported by the 20-day, but capped by the 50-day, it signals a range with upward bias. If price breaks above the 50-day (just above $2.20), increased bullish sentiment is expected.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike Areas:
  • June 22: $2.0140 low saw a buying surge (510M+ XRP volume)
  • Recent days: Volume has declined as price grinds higher, indicating less conviction—potential for breakout on renewed volume

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14-day):
  • Estimated ~54–57 (based on price range & structure)—neutral to modestly bullish, not overbought.
• MACD (12,26,9):
  • Histogram trending up, MACD possibly crossing above signal line—early bullish crossover
• Stochastic Oscillator:
  • Estimated: Rising through mid-zone, confirming mild bullish momentum.

5. Volatility Measures (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • ATR is narrowing: June average day range was ~$0.10, now ~$0.07, reflecting coil before move.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price has moved from band lower edge ($2.10, June 26) to midpoint; bands are tightening—classic precursor to volatility expansion.

6. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Support:
  • $2.14–$2.15 (short-term); $2.10 (major)—zone tested and held repeatedly last week
  • $2.02 (medium; May low)
• Resistance:
  • $2.20 (near-term, 50-day SMA, psychological round)
  • $2.22 (week high); $2.24 (recent swing high)
  • $2.30–$2.35 (major swing high from May/June)

7. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Bullish Rectangle/Ascending Triangle (Short-term):
  • Weekly structure since June 22 shows higher lows converging on horizontal $2.20 resistance: Ascending triangle (bullish bias)
• No major reversal patterns; no engulfing or shooting stars on daily/hourly.

8. Order Book & Market Sentiment (Inferred)

• Market has repeatedly found buyers below $2.14–$2.10
• Distribution is occurring at $2.20–2.22, but buying pressure is increasing
• Low volume + tight range = traders waiting for breakout

9. Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing: $2.01 → $2.22)

• 38.2%: $2.13 (held)
• 50%: $2.11
• 61.8%: $2.09
• Price sits above all key retracement supports; bullish setup for another try at $2.22, possibly $2.24

10. Elliott Wave Structure (Short-term)

• Impulse rises: June 22–24 ($2.01 → $2.19); retracement to $2.10; next wave up in progress; implies extension toward $2.22–$2.24

11. Intermarket/Relative Strength (With BTC/ETH; not given here, but XRP has historically lagged major altcoin rallies, currently moving in tandem. If BTC is stable, further risk-on for alts.)

12. Summary & 24-Hour Prediction

• Setup: Bulls defending higher lows, resistance tightening overhead. Volatility is low, but range is compressing—a breakout soon likely.
• Bias: Slightly Bullish. Most indicators (higher lows, MACD/RSI, sustained above short-term MAs, triangle pattern, no overbought readings) support a move higher.
• Near-term Targets: First target resistance at $2.22. If broken, $2.24, followed by acceleration toward $2.30. Downside: Stops should be tight below $2.14 (last swing-support & 20-day MA).
• Best Play: Buy on minor intraday dip to $2.18 or $2.17 (support zone) with tight risk, targeting a breakout and run toward $2.22 (first target; scale out partially), and ambitious $2.24 on increased volume.

Key risks: If $2.14 fails on high volume, exit immediately—could spiral to $2.10 or lower.

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Final Trading Signal:

• Take a Long (Buy) position on a pullback to $2.178–$2.182. Scale out at $2.220 (partial) and close at $2.240.