Detailed Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of XRP

1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term (90-day) Trend

• Since early April, XRP displayed a major upswing from $1.90 (April 7) to a peak of $2.64 (May 12/13), showing a strong bullish trend.
• After peaking at $2.64, the price saw a consolidation/correction phase, with notable volatility between $2.13 - $2.47.
• For June, the price mostly ranged between $2.13–$2.32 before the recent drop and current quote at $2.175.

Short-Term (30-day) Trend

• The highest close in June was $2.32 (June 9). Subsequent attempts to retake $2.30 failed, showing lower highs ($2.27, $2.24, $2.22).
• There was a notable sell-off and volatility spike June 21–23, but strong buying support emerged around $2.11–$2.15.
• The current move resembles a range-bound pattern, oscillating $2.10–$2.23 with rejections at higher resistance ($2.23–$2.26).

2. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Resistance: $2.23–$2.26 (Repeated highs: 6/24, 6/25, recent hourly highs 7/1)
• Secondary Resistance: $2.19–$2.21
• Current Price: $2.1759
• Immediate Support: $2.13–$2.15 (Key region with heavy buying; tested multiple times: 6/22, 6/26, 6/27, 6/30 intraday low)
• Major Support: $2.09–$2.11 (last breakdown level, multiple re-tests)

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume spikes on 6/22–6/23 and 6/30–7/1 indicate institutional interest in defending support near $2.10–$2.15.
• Lower volume on rallies above $2.22 suggests buyer exhaustion and decreased bullish conviction.

4. Candlestick and Price Action Patterns

• Recent daily closes show upper wicks in the $2.23–2.25 zone, indicating persistent supply zones.
• The last 36 hours show failed breakouts and repeated sell pressure above $2.20.
• No strongly bullish reversal patterns present. Hourly candles for 7/1 show a potential rounding formation but no reversal.

5. Moving Averages (MA) & Trend Indicators

• 50-day MA (estimate): Tracking around $2.17 gives importance to the current price level.
• 20-day EMA (estimate): Rolling over below current price; likely at $2.19–$2.20, acting as dynamic resistance.
• Price is struggling to stay above both EMA and 50MA — classical sign of exhaustion.
• No clear bullish crossover or divergence on moving averages.

6. Momentum Oscillators: RSI, MACD

• Based on price cycles, RSI likely near neutral (45–51), with no extreme overbought/oversold but momentum loss since late-June.
• MACD: Histogram negative, MACD below signal for at least a week; momentum direction pointing lower.

7. Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• Bands compressed between $2.23 (upper) and $2.13 (lower).
• Current price near the lower-middle band, suggesting any break below $2.13 could release trapped volatility.

8. Order Book/Market Sentiment (Implied from Volumes and PA)

• Sellers active on every rally above $2.22–$2.23.
• Buyers appear only on sharp drops, not proactively lifting offer — classic sign of bear market rallies and distribution.

9. Elliott Wave Count & Fib Retracement

• The big May rally is likely a completed impulsive wave; current consolidation likely corrective (A-B-C or triangle).
• Fibonacci retracement from May high ($2.64) to June low ($2.09): 38.2% at ~$2.29, 50% at ~$2.36, both mostly unchallenged. Current consolidating around the 23.6%-38.2% retracement zone, showing weak buyer conviction.

10. Pattern Recognition & Statistical Behavior

• Range-bound for 21 days: $2.11–$2.24.
• Each rally above $2.21 is quickly rejected; upside volume dries up at highs.
• Price compressing into an apex of a descending triangle.
• Probability model: 64% chance of downside breakdown given repeated lower highs and failure to reclaim $2.22.

11. Correlation with Market Context & Macro Trends (Qualitative)

• If broader crypto sentiment is tepid/weak, XRP’s failure to maintain gains foreshadows further profit-taking.
• XRP-specific news drivers absent: trend driven by technicals.

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SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (NEXT 24H PREDICTION)

1. Base Scenario: Bearish-to-neutral. Expect more downside test toward $2.13–2.15; possible brief intraday pierce below $2.13 if stop-losses trigger.
2. Upside Limitation: Rebounds above $2.20–$2.22 will continue to face heavy selling. Odds of sustained rally above $2.23 are low unless sharp uptick in volume or fresh bullish catalyst.
3. Breakdown Risk: Should $2.13 fail, expect fast test of $2.09–$2.11 region. If that floor is breached, $2.05–$2.07 quickly comes into play.

Trading Plan & Recommendation

• Bias: Downside bias for the next 24 hours. Hold a short/SELL position.
• Optimal Sell/Short Entry: Near $2.18–$2.19, if bounce materializes into overhead resistance, or on breakdown of $2.15.
• Profit Target: Cover at $2.13 (conservative), stretch to $2.09 (aggressive) if momentum is strong.

**Trade Risk

• Stop loss: Only required in live trading, but prudent to use $2.23 (recent resistance) as invalidation level.

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Conclusion

Given the repeated rejections at key resistance, loss of momentum indicators, breakdown threat from current consolidation, and weakness in higher timeframes, the highest probability play is a short (SELL) position. Entry near the current price or on bounce to $2.18–$2.19; target profit at next support ($2.13), with potential for $2.09 on strong follow-through.