XRP Technical Analysis – 16 July 2025

Step 1: Trend Assessment

Daily Trend:

• From mid-April to June, XRP showed sideways chop between ~$2.00 and $2.35, with moderate volume and bear/bull swings.
• Starting June 30th, XRP begins a parabolic ascent, breaking out from $2.20 to a high of $3.09 today, July 16th.
• Over the last 10 sessions, closing prices trended consistently upward, highlighted by higher highs and higher lows, indicative of a strong bullish uptrend.

Recent Momentum:

• Last 5 daily closes: 2.735 → 2.835 → 2.955 → 2.919 → 3.055
• The price spike from $2.54 to $2.73 on July 11th (after a long consolidation) was on record volume—classic breakout marker.
• Large green candles, particularly July 10–14, reflect aggressive buyer control; minor retracement on July 15 was absorbed.

Step 2: Volume and Participation

• Volume reached an all-time high of 15.7B on July 11th, three times the previous highs, confirming institutional/macro participant entry.
• Cooling volume on subsequent daily candles (still elevated relative to pre-breakout periods), confirming accumulation continues as price advances.

Step 3: Volatility and RSI/Momentum (Estimates)

• Sustained huge ranges last week (+7% to 10% daily swings), which is high for XRP.
• RSI (by estimation) is likely above 80 (overbought), as momentum is extremely strong but could indicate short-term exhaustion above $3.00.
• MACD (implied by structure) remains sharply positive with expanding histogram bulge; no crossover signal yet.

Step 4: Key Support/Resistance Levels

Support:

• $2.90–2.95 (recent pullback lows, heavy trading volume)
• $2.73 (previous resistance-turned-support after breakout)
• $2.50 (volume node, breakout level)

Resistance:

• $3.10–3.12 (today’s intraday high, round number mark)
• $3.25–3.40 (psychological barrier, extrapolated extension)

Step 5: Chart Patterns

Cup and Handle:

• The entire range from April to June forms the base, with a fresh upward bull handle completion during July—projection from base ($2.20->$2.75 = +$0.55) points to targets near $3.30+.

Flag/Parabolic Ascension:

• Current move has entered a parabolic phase post-flag breakout (July 11–14); steepness and angle indicate strong FOMO/speculator grip.

Step 6: Fibonacci Extensions

• Drawn from $2.14 (June low) to $2.95 (July 14 high):
  • 0.618 retracement: $2.58 (successfully tested July 11)
  • 1.0 extension: $2.95 (last week’s high)
  • 1.618 extension: ~$3.40 (upside projection within 1–2 days)

Step 7: Moving Averages (Implied)

• 20-day SMA (approx.): $2.60
• 50-day SMA (approx.): $2.20
• Current price is 17% above the 20-day SMA—extended, but breakouts tend to ride the upper Bollinger band during these moves.

Step 8: Orderbook/Liquidity Analysis

• Each pullback below $2.95 has been bought aggressively, indicating strong demand and limited supply above $3 until $3.10/3.25.

Step 9: Short-term Price Action (Intraday)

• Today’s hourly chart: XRP climbed steadily from $2.92 to $3.09, with each minor dip met by buyers. Last hour surge breached $3.05, closing at session high—no major profit taking yet evident.
• No reversal pattern (top wick, shooting star, or bearish engulfing) visible on smaller timeframes.

Step 10: Sentiment and Probability Assessment

• Market is in clear FOMO phase, with participation from both institutional and retail traders.
• Given the historical tendency of XRP (in strong bull cycles) to overshoot and then sharply retrace, a move toward $3.25–$3.40 is probable in coming hours, with potential for rapid shakeouts.
• Short-term overbought signals suggest caution, but no confirmation of reversal yet—momentum remains king in crypto parabolic phases.

Synthesis of Signals

• All major indicators (trend, volume, moving averages, flag/cup pattern, and breakouts) support further upside.
• Risk: While some cooling expected above $3.10, most technicals point to $3.25–$3.40 before a meaningful retracement.
• Timing: Ideal to buy on mild dip intraday as trend resumes upward after price tests $3.00–$3.04 region.

Strong Buy (Long) recommendation. Place buy order slightly below market to catch dip, with tight stop below recent support ($2.90). Target profit in $3.30–$3.40 zone for rapid swing trade.

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Summary Table

Technique	Signal	Comment
Trend Analysis	Bullish	Breakout, higher highs/lows
Volume Profile	Bullish	High/increasing, confirms participation
RSI/Momentum	Overbought	Caution for extended move, but aggressive FOMO
Moving Averages	Bullish	Far above 20/50 day, confirms breakout
Chart Patterns	Bullish	Cup & handle, flag extension
Fibonacci Extensions	Bullish	$3.40–$3.50 mapped
Support/Resistance	Bullish	All resistance breaking; $2.95 support