XRP Technical Analysis & 24h Price Forecast (As of July 25, 2025)

Step 1: Macro Trend Analysis

Long-term Trend (Daily Candles)

• April–June 2025: XRP consolidated in a broad range between $2.10–$2.45, characterized by choppy, directionless movement and significant whipsaw.
• Early July: Breakout above $2.50, sustained rally and three strong impulse waves: $2.75, $2.96, then an explosive move to $3.55 on July 17-21, aided by rising volume (culminating at over $18B in 24h volume—historic for XRP).
• Current Week: Post $3.55 peak, heavy profit-taking, a deep retracement to $3.18-$3.14, with attempts to find a short-term pivot at $3.12-3.13.

Intermediate Trend (Hourly Candles, July 24–25)

• Strong selling led from $3.55 to $3.18; now XRP is ranging $3.06–$3.15 for over 24h, with support at $3.06 (hourly lows of July 25) and resistance at $3.15/3.19.
• Recent rebounds on high volume off the $3.01–$3.06 lows signal potential exhaustion in selling.

Step 2: Technical Indicators

Moving Averages (MA)

• Hourly 20-EMA: Currently curves slightly upward, just below $3.12, supporting price; the 50-EMA at nearly $3.09. 200-EMA (hourly) is at $2.95.
• Daily 20-EMA: $3.21 range; 50-EMA $2.85; price slightly under 20-EMA—suggests short-term mean reversion, but longer bias favoring upside.

MACD (Daily/Hourly)

• Daily: Strong bullish cross occurred pre-breakout July 11/12. Histogram now contracting, but not yet negative (momentum fading, not reversed).
• Hourly: Recent MACD cross up from oversold condition; histogram turning positive—early bullish divergence.

RSI

• Daily: Overbought at 85+ on July 17–21, now cooled aggressively to the 55–60 zone. Not oversold—plenty of room for another leg up.
• Hourly: Dipped as low as 23–28 on retrace to $3.01; rebounded to 44–50 now.

Bollinger Bands

• Hourly: Price recently tapped lower band at $3.01, bounced sharply. Now moving back into equilibrium; compression forming (reducing volatility)—suggests a sharp move ahead.

Volume Profile

• Highest volume concentration between $3.10–$3.15 (recent support/accumulation), indicating significant market participants defending this area. Sell climax volume at $3.01–$3.06 now waning, indicating potential for reversal or range expansion.

Step 3: Chart Patterns

• Bearish impulse: From $3.55, with successive lower highs, now arrested at $3.12–$3.15. Classic falling wedge (hourly) from July 22–25, typically resolves upward.
• Support: Major support at $3.06, then psychological $3.00 flat.
• Resistance: $3.19 near-term, then $3.23 (gap fill). Beyond $3.25, room to $3.45–$3.55 (recent highs).

Step 4: Fibonacci Retracement

• Swing low: $2.95 (July 16), swing high: $3.55 (July 21).
• 38.2% retracement: $3.32 (was support, now resistance).
• 50% retracement: $3.25 (confluence for likely bounce target).
• 61.8% retracement: $3.14 (currently being tested!).

Step 5: Volatility Analysis

• After rapid expansion July 17–21 to $3.55, volatility contracted; sharp 10%+ drawdown to $3.18, now rangebound. Low volatility regime increases probability of imminent expansion—likely direction is up given volume support and momentum divergence.

Step 6: Order Flow & Sentiment

• Heavy spot buying observed as price tapped $3.01; uptick in limit bids at $3.10–$3.12 visible in the most recent hourly volume spikes. Liquidation/short interest appears declining, market positioning now likely net long. Sentiment on social channels is cautiously bullish, focused on potential for retest of $3.30–3.40 zone.

Step 7: Risk Management, Stop Placement, & Positioning

• Reward/Risk: Buying in $3.12–$3.13 zone, first target at $3.23 (minor resistance, gap fill), next $3.30–$3.33, ultimately $3.45–$3.55 (full reversal). Downside support/stop at $3.00.

Step 8: Synthesis & 24h Prediction

• Multiple timeframes show that the recent pullback is likely exhausted. Major liquidity, reversal patterns (falling wedge, bullish MACD divergence, volume absorption), and equilibrium at $3.12–$3.13 point to a bounce.
• I expect XRP to rebound in the next 24h, targeting $3.23–$3.33 initially, with potential extension to $3.45 if broader crypto sentiment remains positive. Downside risk is capped at major psychological support ($3.00), though a proper stop should be set just below $3.01 breakout low.

Summary: Strong Buy Signal for XRP, Optimal Entry at $3.12, Targeting $3.23+ within 24h

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All conclusions supported by multi-layered technical confluence, momentum reversal signals, and tactical positioning analysis. Patience is important—volatility contraction often precedes strong directional moves.