XRP (XRP) Technical Analysis: July 31, 2025

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis

1. Macro Trend Context - Multi-Month View

• Price Action: Over the past three months, XRP has gone from a consolidation in the $2.10–2.30 range, into a strong rally since early July, peaking just below $3.65 (July 21), then consolidating. The asset is currently trading at $3.05.
• Momentum: The breakout in early July marked the start of an accelerated uptrend. The weekly high/low data indicate explosive expansion with rapidly rising volumes (see July 10–21), typical of a large trend extension, often followed by profit-taking and retracement.

2. Short-Term Trend & Candlestick Structure (Last 2 Weeks)

• Uptrend Exhaustion: After the $3.65 peak (July 21), XRP retraced to $3.14–$3.18. Price staged a minor rebound but failed to break higher than $3.26–$3.32. Recent daily candles display long upper wicks and smaller body closes, signaling distribution and loss of bullish momentum.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Major Resistance: $3.60–$3.65; intermediate: $3.25–$3.32, $3.18
  • Major Support: $3.00–$3.05 (testing now), $2.98–$2.95 (cluster), $2.85 (reaction zone)

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Climax: Volumes peaked during the breakout and initial surge ($3.45–$3.65), signaling a possible buying climax.
• Decreasing Volume: As price moved sideways or fractionally higher post-peak, volumes have decreased, suggesting buyer exhaustion and risk of further retracement.

4. Hourly Structure & Intraday Signals (Past 24h)

• Sharp Lower Highs: Yesterday/today's hourly data shows a sequence of failed recoveries past $3.17, with lower highs and lower lows printed regularly from $3.17 → $3.14 → $3.12 → $3.09 → $3.05.
• Range and Breakdown: Multiple rejection candles above $3.12 signal sellers dominating each push. The 20:00–21:00 candles today failed to move above $3.07, and finally closed around $3.05 - confirming a micro breakdown below $3.10 support.

5. Indicator Approaches

• Momentum (RSI, Stochastics):
  • Visual estimation (from structure): RSI would be trending down from overbought levels post-breakout, now hovering mid to lower region – indicative of loss of bullish momentum, with risk of entering an oversold zone if breakdown accelerates.
• Moving Averages:
  • EMA/SMA: 21- and 50-period moving averages (if calculated) would be flattening and price is currently challenging their support. The breakdown below these, if confirmed, points to a trend reversal on the short-term chart.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Recent squeeze and contraction, followed by prices hugging/falling below the mid-band, signals a volatility expansion to the downside is possible.

6. Pattern Recognition

• Double Top/Distribution: The formation since the $3.60s peak is a classic parabolic extension and distribution pattern. This is often followed by a break lower.
• Head and Shoulders Formation (Intraday): Microstructure on the 1h chart between $3.14–$3.32 resembles a head-and-shoulders or rolling top, now triggering the neckline (at $3.14–$3.10).

7. Order Flow & Market Sentiment

• Failed Recoveries: Persistent rejection at $3.10–$3.17 and shallow bounces signal more sellers than buyers in the immediate term.
• Volatility: The previous expansion has now shifted to a volatility contraction. When this resolves, given the clues above, it is statistically more likely to break downward.

8. Confluence with Previous Demand Zones

• The prior base from $2.90–$2.95 is the logical next zone for price to seek support. If $3.05 fails, $2.90–$2.95 is a high-probability magnet (recent price memory and high-volume zone).

9. Risk/Reward & Trade Setup

• Bearish Bias: Given exhaustion signals, microstructure breakdown, failed rallies, and decreasing volume post-climax, the ideal tactical move is to position short (Sell) on the next failed recovery or breakdown confirmation.
• Entry: Short on break/retest at $3.05, targeting $2.95–$2.90 zone for first major profit.

Synthesis and Final Prediction

• Outlook (24 Hours): Price is likely to continue correcting toward $2.95–$2.90, possibly with a mild overshoot if panic-selling accelerates in low liquidity.
• Macro: The uptrend is pausing, setting up for a medium-term correction.
• Volatility: Expect increased volatility as further stops are triggered below $3.05

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Summary: XRP is at a transition point with fading momentum post-breakout, reversal signals on both daily and hourly timeframes, and clear breakdown structure below $3.10–$3.05. The risk is skewed to the downside for the next 24h, with next major support anticipated at $2.90–$2.95.