XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP Primed for Breakout: Cup-with-Handle Signals $3.31 Target on Bullish Continuation

Detailed XRP (XRP) Technical Analysis – August 1, 2025

1. Macro Overview: High-Volume Breakout & New Trend Formation

Looking at the past three months, XRP remained in a strong consolidation range between $2.10 and $2.30 throughout late May and most of June, consistently failing to break higher. A major shift unfolded starting July 9th, when XRP broke above $2.40 on strong volume, catalyzing an extended bullish run peaking at $3.64 (July 21st). This marked a breakout from multi-month resistance and a transition from accumulation to markup.

The recent high at $3.64 was followed by a sharp retracement but, critically, price has found support above the 20-day moving average (roughly $2.93), forming a potential cup-with-handle base over the last week. Price currently sits at $2.9967.

2. Volume & Volatility Analysis

Volume remains extraordinarily elevated since July 10th, with multiple days posting 6–15B XRP in volume vs an average May/June maximum of ~4B. This confirms the institutional buy-in and signals that this rally has broad participation.

High volatility is evident in the 50-70 cent daily swings from mid-July to now. Volatility has begun compressing over the last 3 trading sessions, suggesting a possible imminent directional move as participants await confirmation of trend resumption or reversal.

3. Short-Term Chart Pattern Analysis (July 23–August 1)

Cup-with-handle pattern:
- Massive rally to $3.64 (cup lip), retrace to $3.01, failed to make new lows, now consolidating under $3.05 (handle).
- This is a textbook bullish continuation pattern; a break above $3.05–$3.10 zone likely ignites a fresh impulse move.
Descending channel (Handle):
- Within July 24–August 1, handle formed a contained downward-sloping channel, with lower highs at $3.26, $3.18, $3.05 and local lows at $3.01, $2.99.
- Retest and bounce off the $2.95–$2.97 area three times signal strong defense of the handle's lower boundary.

4. Key Technical Indicators

A. Moving Averages

20-period EMA (Daily/Hourly):
- Price currently trading at/below 20-hour EMA but above 50-hour EMA ($2.95) with an upward slope—bullish consolidation, not reversal.
50-hour EMA:
- $2.95 is acting as a near-term support line.
200-hour EMA:
- Well below at $2.75, reinforcing strong medium-term uptrend is intact.

B. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Hourly RSI:
- Dipped to ~44 on dips, rises to 55–60 on rallies—signaling consolidation, but no overbought/oversold extremes.
Daily RSI:
- Pulled back from 82 (extreme overbought on July 17) to 58–60, now in neutral territory, coiling for next move.

C. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Hourly MACD:
- Histogram flat, recently turned mildly positive, showing momentum loss has stabilized.
Daily MACD:
- Still positive, with a narrowing gap, primed for either resumption of the bullish trend or deeper retracement. A bullish cross can provide buy confirmation with a breakout.

5. Volume Profile & Order Flow

Price acceptance is clustered at $2.98–$3.05:
- Most recent high volume nodes are precisely at the current consolidation band, suggesting this will be the critical battleground for direction.
Aggressive buyers emerged each time price dipped below $2.97:
- These wicks and volume spikes are classic for accumulation during a bullish handle formation.

6. Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions

Fib retrace from $3.64 (July 21 high) to $2.98 (recent low):
- 23.6%: $3.11
- 38.2%: $3.23
- 50%: $3.31 (aligns with minor previous resistance)
- 61.8%: $3.40 (major profit-taking spot)
- The $3.10–$3.12 area is crucial; a breakout above this unleashes measured move to $3.31–$3.40.

7. Momentum & Sentiment Analysis

Momentum (ADX):
- After peaking at strong trend phase, currently in correction/consolidation, but indicator remains robust (>30), not in danger zone for a full trend reversal.
Sentiment:
- Both retail and institutional behavior during dips—multiple high-volume price recoveries—suggest market participants are seeking to buy on weakness, not exit on strength.

8. Elliott Wave Perspective

Early July breakout and surge to $3.64 is likely impulse Wave 3.
Correction to $2.98 forms Wave 4—a shallow pullback (sign of underlying strength).
The handle (sideways consolidation) likely sets up for Wave 5 extension; projected target from wave-3 length points to $3.40–$3.60 as the next resistance if breakout occurs.

9. Risk Management, Stop-Loss and Trade Triggers

Stop-loss:
- Handle floor at $2.95 is the logical invalidation—if this breaks, deeper pullback to $2.80 possible.
Profit targets:
- Use fib, psychological, and recent resistance: $3.31 (first target), $3.40 (major target, aligns with last major sellers), $3.60 (extension).

10. Near-Term Price Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

Base case: XRP resolves the handle, breaks above $3.05–$3.10, initiating a trend move up to $3.31–$3.40; momentum and volume spike will confirm the move.
Risk: A loss of $2.95 handle bottom could trigger accelerated selling, but probability is lower based on bullish structure and accumulation pattern.

11. Trade Recommendation & Execution

Bias: Buy (Long Position)
Optimal Entry (Open) Price: $2.99 (current consolidation support, tight risk)
Stop-loss: $2.94 (just below handle, to cap downside risk)
Profit Target (Close): $3.31 (first measured-move), with the potential to partial or trail to $3.40

Summary: XRP is in a well-defined bullish structure, having digested prior gains through a high-volume consolidation. The cup-with-handle pattern, multiple failed breakdowns, and constructive technicals point toward an imminent breakout, with upside targets of $3.31–$3.40 in the next 24 hours. Entry at current support maximizes reward/risk.

Position: Buy (Long) $2.99, Target $3.31, Stop-loss $2.94.