XRP presses the 3.30 pivot: dip-buy setup aiming for 3.44 in the next 24 hours

Multi-timeframe context and price map

• Daily trend (May → Aug): XRP based a higher range around 2.10–2.35 in late May/June, then impulsed mid-July to a 3.65 peak (7/18), corrected into early August with a swing-low at 2.747 (8/2), and has since reclaimed the 3.00 handle. Current price 3.308 is above the recent cluster of daily closes (3.03–3.10) and back inside the upper half of the July range, signaling bullish mean reversion.
• Intraday (last 24h): From ~3.11, price stair-stepped to 3.37, flushed to 3.21, then recovered and settled 3.30–3.31. Structure shows a liquidity sweep of the 3.27–3.28 shelf (LL at 3.213) followed by a reclaim above 3.28/3.30—a constructive re-accumulation signature.

Trend, moving averages, and structure

• Moving averages (conceptual):
  • Daily 50SMA likely rising through ~2.7–2.9; price trades well above it.
  • Daily 20EMA/SMA cluster likely ~3.10–3.20; price reclaimed and held above—bullish.
  • Hourly 20/50 EMA likely curled up after the post-sweep recovery; price oscillated around the hourly VWAP/MA cluster into the close, a healthy consolidation after expansion.
• Market structure: The sequence from 2.747 → 2.906 (HL) → ~2.95–3.07 (higher closes) → 3.37 (HH intraday) → pullback to 3.21 (HL relative to 2.906) → reclaim 3.30 keeps near-term higher-high/higher-low structure intact.

Fibonacci confluence (key to next 24h)

• Swing high (3.650 on 7/18) to swing low (2.747 on 8/2) range = 0.903. Retracement resistances from the downswing:
  • 61.8%: 3.092 (already reclaimed).
  • 50%: 3.199 (reclaimed, intraday demand seen near 3.21).
  • 38.2%: 3.305 (current pivot; price closed on it).
  • 23.6%: ~3.437 (next upside magnet).
• Interpretation: XRP is pressing into the 38.2% level (~3.30–3.31) after a successful reclaim of 3.20 and 3.09. Acceptance above 3.31–3.33 opens the path to 3.43–3.45 (23.6%) where larger supply likely resides.

Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Daily: Price is likely between mid-band (near the 20SMA ~3.15) and upper band (~3.45). That leaves room for a push toward the upper band area (3.40–3.45) without being extended.
• Hourly: Price tagged/near the upper band around 3.36–3.37 early in the session, then mean-reverted to the mid-band/VWAP region ~3.30. Post-reversion hold above the mid-band suggests the next impulse can resume higher if 3.28–3.30 holds.

Momentum: RSI, MACD, Stoch

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-50s to low-60s after the bounce—bullish but not overbought; room for continuation.
• Hourly RSI: Peaked on the 3.37 push, reset near 50 on the dip to 3.21, and stabilized into the close—constructive consolidation of momentum.
• MACD daily: Histogram likely trending up from the early-August trough; signal-line cross up or imminent. Hourly MACD cooled after the push and is flattening near zero—typical pause before next directional move.
• Stochastic oscillators: Hourly stoch likely cycled down during the 3.37→3.21 pullback and is turning up; daily stoch rising—multi-timeframe tailwind.

Trend strength and DI/ADX

• ADX daily likely in the low-to-mid 20s and rising from the correction trough; +DI above –DI after reclaiming 3.00. That favors trend resumption upward, albeit not at blow-off strength.

Ichimoku perspective

• Daily: Price likely above the cloud or engaging its upper boundary with Tenkan > Kijun and a supportive, rising Kumo below ~3.00–3.10. That backdrop supports dips being bought.
• Hourly: After the liquidity sweep to 3.21, candles reclaimed/held above the cloud with Tenkan crossing up Kijun; forward cloud thin-to-neutral—enough for a measured continuation if 3.28–3.30 holds.

Volume, OBV, and liquidity

• Volume: The leg up to 3.37 showed healthy participation; the pullback saw lighter volumes and stabilized—bullish volume asymmetry.
• Volume profile (visible range impression): Heavy node 3.05–3.15 (now below), lighter node/air pocket around 3.26–3.31, and next notable interest near 3.43–3.46. That suggests a potential fast move through 3.33–3.42 if acceptance above 3.31–3.33 persists.
• Liquidity sweeps: The undercut to 3.213 flushed stops below the intraday base and quickly reclaimed, forming a spring-type setup with support now defined at 3.21–3.23 and 3.27–3.29.

Price action patterns

• Intraday ascending base: Higher lows into a horizontal supply at 3.35–3.37 earlier today hint at an emerging ascending triangle structure. The failure to break on first attempt followed by a shallow pullback is typical before a second attempt.
• Candles: Post-sweep recovery and several small-bodied consolidation candles near 3.30 indicate absorption of supply, not aggressive distribution.

VWAP and session behavior

• Today’s VWAP clustered near 3.30–3.32; late session prints held at or slightly above VWAP after the mid-day dip. VWAP reclaims after a stop-sweep typically precede the next leg up if VWAP continues to act as support on retests.

Support and resistance map (near-term)

• Supports: 3.27–3.29 (intraday shelf and MA/VWAP confluence), 3.21–3.23 (sweep low/HL), 3.19–3.20 (50% retrace from 3.65→2.747), then 3.09–3.10.
• Resistances: 3.33 (acceptance trigger), 3.35–3.37 (session high band), 3.43–3.45 (23.6% retrace and daily upper-band vicinity), 3.55, 3.62–3.65 (prior peak supply).

ATR and expected 24h range

• Recent daily true ranges ~0.18–0.35 imply a 24h expected move of roughly ±0.25–0.35 from 3.31. That sets a probabilistic upside reach into 3.40–3.45 and downside risk into 3.06–3.10 in tail scenarios, with more likely support arrests at 3.21–3.29.

Confluence summary (bullish bias)

• Price reclaimed and is holding above key daily retracements (3.09, 3.20).
• Currently pressing the 38.2% level (~3.305) from the 3.65→2.747 downswing; acceptance above turns 3.43–3.45 into a magnet.
• Intraday structure shows a classic stop-sweep to 3.21, VWAP reclaim, and higher-low development—typical of re-accumulation before a second drive up.
• Momentum and trend tools lean positive without overextension, allowing a continuation attempt.

Risk factors to monitor

• Failure to hold 3.28–3.30 on retest would likely revisit 3.21–3.23. A clean break/acceptance below 3.20 shifts bias back to mean reversion toward 3.10.
• Supply reaction at 3.35–3.37: If repeated rejections occur with rising supply, the move can stall below 3.33.

Next 24h outlook and trade plan

• Base case (≈60%): Early pullback into 3.27–3.30 gets bought; acceptance above 3.33 targets 3.42–3.45, with potential wicks toward 3.47.
• Bear case (≈30%): Lose 3.28, test 3.21–3.23; weak bounce fails under 3.30 and price ranges 3.19–3.29.
• Tail (≈10%): Momentum breakout straight through 3.37 toward 3.50; or a risk-off flush through 3.19 toward 3.10.

Actionable levels

• Optimal entry (limit buy on dip): 3.287 (near the 3.27–3.29 demand shelf/VWAP-MA confluence and just under the 3.305 pivot to improve R:R).
• Take-profit target (24h window): 3.437 (next Fibonacci 23.6% from the 3.65→2.747 leg and near the daily upper-band zone where supply is expected).
• Invalidation (not required but prudent): A sustained break/acceptance below 3.20 would negate the setup and favor patience/lower buys.

Conclusion Given the confluence of higher-timeframe reclaim, intraday re-accumulation, and proximity to a pivotal Fib level now acting as support, the path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is modestly higher toward 3.42–3.45. I favor buying a controlled dip into 3.27–3.29 with a target at 3.437, while monitoring 3.28 and 3.20 as key defense levels.