XRP poised for a Sunday squeeze: buying the 3.25 Fib shelf for a run at 3.34

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish with a buy-the-dip setup around 3.25–3.26 supported by multi-timeframe confluence (38.2% Fibonacci, rising 20-day SMA, Ichimoku support, and prior pivot cluster). Expect a re-test of 3.31–3.34; stretch target 3.36–3.41 if momentum returns Sunday PM UTC.
• Key risks: Weekend thin liquidity may produce stop-sweeps below 3.25 toward 3.22 before reversal. A decisive hourly close below 3.22 would invalidate the long idea and opens 3.12–3.15.

Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (daily): Uptrend from the late-June base near 2.01, impulsive July rally to 3.64–3.65, then healthy pullback into Aug 1 low at ~3.03. Since Aug 1, structure has shifted back to higher lows and higher highs, with the most recent swing high attempt on Aug 9 near 3.34–3.35 failing at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Jul 21 high to Aug 1 low. Today’s candle is a modest red body with an upper wick, closing near intraday lows but still above key daily supports.
• Medium timeframe (4h proxy from hourly): Since Aug 7 high at ~3.33, price has carved a descending channel/flag on the hourly. The lower bound sits 3.25–3.26; upper bound 3.31–3.33. Flags after an impulsive leg typically resolve higher; the current pullback is controlled with contracting momentum into support.
• Intraday (hourly): Sequence of lower highs from ~3.34 down to ~3.29 then ~3.27; however, repeated defenses of 3.26–3.27 and a marginal new low only to ~3.255 suggests seller momentum is waning into support. Expect either a local sweep to ~3.245–3.252 followed by a bounce, or an immediate grind up through 3.29 toward the channel top.

Key levels

• Supports: 3.255–3.265 (intraday shelf and fib 38.2%), 3.24–3.25 (July micro-pivot and liquidity pocket), 3.21–3.22 (strong invalidation zone; June/July composite node), 3.12–3.16 (20D SMA cluster and July volume node), 2.96–3.00 (major high-volume node and prior base).
• Resistances: 3.31–3.34 (channel top and 50% fib), 3.36–3.41 (61.8% fib and prior breakdown shelf), 3.50–3.56 (major supply from late-July distribution and R1 pivot zone).

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 3.155 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price at 3.258 is above the 20D, implying bullish mean-reversion bias; pulls to the mid-band have been buying opportunities in this regime.
• 50D SMA is rising and sits well below price (approx high 2s per recent rally), confirming an intermediate uptrend.
• Hourly 50EMA versus 200EMA: Likely still positive after the Aug 1–7 advance; today’s pullback has price testing the 50EMA area. A reclaim and hold above the hourly 50EMA near 3.29 would confirm short-term momentum shift back to buyers.

Bollinger Bands (daily)

• Mid-band ~ 3.155; estimated 2-standard-deviation bands ~ 2.68–3.63. Price is just above the mid-band, with today’s range compressed to ~0.09 against an ATR ~0.20–0.25. This compression favors a volatility expansion within 24–48h; being above the mid-band skews that expansion modestly higher unless mid-band fails decisively.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): Estimated ~52–55, i.e., neutral-to-bullish. Not overbought; room to push toward 60 on a bounce.
• RSI (hourly): Likely mid-30s to low-40s after today’s drip lower, aligning with near-term oversold-at-support behavior; expect mean reversion toward 50–55 if 3.25 holds.
• MACD (daily): Histogram recently turned positive on the early-Aug rebound; signal line likely curling up. Today’s pullback should modestly flatten the histogram but no clear bear reversal unless follow-through selling hits 3.21.
• Stochastics (hourly): Probable reset into oversold; cross-up near support would be a strong trigger.
• ADX (daily): Moderate trend strength (low 20s). That suggests swing moves are directional but not overheated; pullbacks can be bought with defined risk.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price above cloud. Tenkan-sen ~3.19–3.22; Kijun-sen ~3.05–3.10; Senkou A ~3.10–3.15; Senkou B ~2.85–2.90. With price at 3.26, we are above Tenkan and well above Kijun/Cloud, indicating primary bullish conditions. A dip into 3.22–3.24 would tag Tenkan and often provides a continuation buy in trending states.

Fibonacci confluence

• Swing high 3.65 (Jul 21) to swing low 3.025 (Aug 1):
  • 38.2%: ~3.263 (today’s close is sitting on it)
  • 50%: ~3.337
  • 61.8%: ~3.412 Reaction profile today: rejection at 50% (3.34) and pullback to 38.2% (~3.26). This is classical fib behavior in a bullish correction; a bounce from 38.2% often aims back at 50% and can overshoot to 61.8% on momentum.
• Alternative swing 3.5769 to 2.9646:
  • 50%: ~3.271
  • 61.8%: ~3.326 The 3.27 and 3.32–3.33 areas align with the channel bounds, reinforcing both entry and target zones.

Volume and flow

• Today’s reported daily volume ~5.34B, elevated for a Saturday but well below July’s frenzy. Down-move from 3.34 lacked a blow-off spike; rather a controlled distribution into support, which often precedes a relief bounce.
• OBV (inferred): Trending up since Aug 1, slight downtick today but still above early-Aug levels, suggesting more accumulation than distribution over the last week.
• Volume profile: High-volume nodes at 3.12–3.16 and 2.96–3.00. Current 3.25–3.27 is a lighter node, which can produce fast moves; if buyers step in, price can traverse quickly to 3.31–3.34.

Pattern analysis

• Bull flag on hourly: Impulsive leg from ~2.99–3.00 to ~3.33 (Aug 1–7), then a downward-sloping consolidation channel. Resolution probabilities favor continuation higher provided the lower channel support holds (3.25–3.26).
• Candlesticks: Daily small-bodied red with upper wick near 50% fib signals rejection but not a trend change; location atop the 20D SMA/38.2% fib is more supportive than bearish. Hourly shows staircase pullback with diminishing ranges near support, a common pre-bounce tell.

Classical pivots (reference using Aug 7 session since Aug 8 is absent)

• Pivot P ~ 3.205; R1 ~ 3.442; S1 ~ 3.081. Price remains above P, consistent with bullish-bias pullback scenarios.

VWAP studies

• Anchored VWAP from the Aug 1 low is estimated near 3.13–3.16; price above that suggests the rally cohort remains in profit and likely to defend pullbacks. Intraday session VWAP today trended down; reclaiming it near 3.29–3.30 would be a tactical trigger for momentum entries.

Advanced perspectives

• Elliott wave heuristic: From the Aug 1 low, wave 1 to ~3.07, wave 2 to ~2.96, extended wave 3 to ~3.33, wave 4 flag down to ~3.25–3.26, wave 5 attempt failed near ~3.345 (truncated). An ABC flat toward ~3.24–3.26 completes C near current levels. If correct, the next impulsive wave targets 3.34–3.41.
• Gann angle glance: The 1x1 fan projected from Aug 1 low intersects near 3.24–3.26 today; respect of that line is constructive.

Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR ~0.20–0.25. Today’s range ~0.09 implies compression; a typical next-day expansion could add ±0.12–0.18 from the mean. From 3.26, this places a reasonable 24h upside band at 3.38–3.44 and downside band at 3.10–3.14; however, supports at 3.21–3.24 should absorb typical weekend liquidity dips, skewing realized downside shallower unless a shock hits.

Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Base case, 55%: Hold 3.25–3.26, reclaim 3.29, grind to 3.31–3.34, with intraday rejection near 3.337 (50% fib). Close in the 3.30–3.34 area.
• Bull extension, 20%: Strong reclaim of 3.30–3.31 with rising volume, quick test of 3.36–3.41 (61.8% fib). Potential wick to 3.41 before settling back around 3.35–3.37.
• Bear sweep, 25%: Liquidity run to 3.23–3.24, maybe a brief stab to 3.21. Buyers step in and push back above 3.26, finishing near 3.30. Only if 3.21 breaks on hourly close does a deeper slide toward 3.12–3.16 open, which is a lower-probability tail within 24h.

Trade plan and risk management

• Direction: Buy the dip into 3.25–3.26, or on reclaim of 3.29 after a 3.24–3.26 sweep.
• Entry: Limit preference near 3.252–3.258 to harvest liquidity; acceptable market entry on strong reclaim of 3.290 with rising volume.
• Stop loss (recommended, though not part of required output fields): 3.218 (below weekend sweep zone and Ichimoku Tenkan). Tighter traders can use 3.228; looser swing can use 3.198 depending on sizing.
• Take profit focus: First target 3.335–3.345 (fib 50% plus channel top). R:R from 3.255 entry to 3.342 TP vs 3.218 SL ≈ 2.3:1. If momentum accelerates, partials at 3.342, runners toward 3.41.
• Position sizing: Risk 0.5–1.0% of capital to account for weekend volatility and potential slippage.

Catalyst and timing considerations

• Weekend liquidity: Expect stop-hunts during Asia early session (Sun UTC 00:00–06:00). Ideal fill is a shallow sweep into 3.24–3.25 followed by a fast reclaim; confirmation would be rising hourly volume and RSI recovering above 45–50.
• Correlation risk: While not provided, if broader crypto tapes stabilize or uptick, alt-beta like XRP typically outperforms on rebounds.

Invalidation

• Hourly close below 3.21 would negate the immediate long bias and likely shift the 24–48h target zone down to 3.12–3.16 before any new long setup is considered.

Bottom line

• Confluence long: 38.2% fib at ~3.263, rising 20D SMA ~3.155 below, Ichimoku Tenkan ~3.20–3.22 underprice, hourly flag lower bound 3.25–3.26, and controlled selling into support. Base-case outcome is a bounce to 3.31–3.34 within 24 hours. I favor a tactical long with a limit near 3.252 and a take-profit near 3.342, managing risk under 3.218.

Note: This is a tactical trading view, not investment advice. Volatility can be elevated on weekends; adjust size and stops accordingly.