XRP setup: fade the 3.20 retest for a drive toward 3.08 within 24 hours

Executive summary and bias

• Short term bias: bearish for the next 24 hours, with a preference to fade bounces into 3.19 to 3.22 and target a push toward 3.10 to 3.08.
• Context: after a sharp July rally that topped near 3.65, XRP has been in a broad consolidation. The most recent upswing from the Aug 2 low near 2.75 to the Aug 8 high around 3.376 has retraced into key Fibonacci support. Intraday flow on Aug 11 shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, heavy sell programs at 3.32 to 3.33, and repeated failures to reclaim 3.22 to 3.23 pivot.

Multi time frame market structure

• Daily structure: lower high vs Jul 21 high 3.65 was set on Aug 8 at 3.376. Since then, closes have stepped down 3.287, 3.228, with today trading down to the low 3.15s. The up leg from Aug 2 to Aug 8 remains intact unless price loses 3.06 to 2.99, but the immediate posture is corrective.
• 4 hour to 1 hour structure: clear distribution under 3.32 to 3.33 with successive lower highs 3.33, 3.31, 3.27, 3.22 and lower lows 3.21, 3.19, 3.15. The 08:00 UTC spike to 3.326 was sold aggressively, followed by a trend day lower with weak bounces.

Key support and resistance levels

• Resistance overhead
  • 3.33 to 3.35: supply from Aug 7 to 8 highs, rejection zone and prior 61.8 retracement of the Jul 21 to Aug 2 downswing.
  • 3.27 to 3.30: intraday supply shelf, alignment with 1 hour cloud top and prior breakdown zone.
  • 3.22 to 3.23: session pivot and 23.6 percent retracement from the Aug 8 high. Multiple intraday failures here today.
  • 3.19 to 3.21: micro pivot cluster and Kijun type mean on 1 hour.
• Support below
  • 3.16 to 3.15: intraday shelf just above a daily Fibonacci, repeatedly probed this session.
  • 3.136: 38.2 percent retracement of the Aug 2 low 2.747 to Aug 8 high 3.376 measured from the high; also near classical S2 pivot from Aug 9 calculations.
  • 3.115 to 3.10: late July close cluster and psychological level.
  • 3.061: 50 percent retracement of the Aug 2 to Aug 8 leg.
  • 2.987 to 2.965: 61.8 percent retracement band and high volume node from early Aug.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20 period SMA is estimated around 3.10 to 3.15 after the July surge and early August pullback. Price is oscillating near this mean, indicating a mid range consolidation with downside magnetism when below 3.20.
• Daily 50 period SMA is rising toward the mid 2.6s to 2.7s and is supportive of the broader uptrend but not relevant to the 24 hour horizon.
• 1 hour EMAs 20 and 50 are sloping down, with price trading beneath both for most of today, confirming a short term downtrend. Bearish 20 under 50 alignment persists.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI is likely in the low to mid 50s after peaking in the 70s during mid July. This reflects loss of momentum and a neutral to mildly bearish state that can accommodate further pullback without immediate oversold risk.
• 1 hour RSI printed oversold readings during the drop into 3.15 and is attempting to rebound. The rebound so far is unconvincing, failing under the RSI 50 midline, which favors selling into strength. A minor bullish divergence may be forming between the 11:00 and 19:00 UTC lows, but without price reclaiming 3.22 it tends to produce only shallow bounces.
• MACD 1 hour is below zero with a shallow attempt to curl. Daily MACD histogram has rolled over from a positive peak, consistent with a corrective phase.

Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR 14 approximates 0.17 to 0.22 based on recent ranges. That implies typical next day travel of roughly 5 to 7 percent of price, adequate to reach 3.08 from a 3.20 entry in one session.
• Bollinger Bands daily have narrowed versus mid July, with price near the middle to lower band, signaling a compression within the larger consolidation. Mean reversion bounces are possible but trend continuation remains favored while below mid band around 3.13 to 3.15 turn into resistance on rallies.
• 1 hour Bollinger shows lower band tags near 3.15 with only modest mean reversion. Selling the reversion into the middle band has worked today and remains preferred until the upper band is reclaimed on strong breadth.

Ichimoku perspective

• Daily: price remains above the daily cloud, consistent with a larger uptrend context. However, Tenkan is flattening and Kijun trails near the low 3.1s, so a test toward Kijun is a reasonable expectation.
• 1 hour: price resides below the cloud, Tenkan below Kijun, and the cloud ahead is flat to slightly descending near 3.23 to 3.27. This implies overhead resistance and favors short setups into that zone.

Fibonacci confluence and measured moves

• From Aug 2 low 2.747 to Aug 8 high 3.376, retracement levels sit at 3.227 23.6 percent, 3.136 38.2 percent, 3.061 50 percent, and 2.987 61.8 percent. Price rejected the 23.6 percent area repeatedly today and rotated toward 3.136. A clean break of 3.136 opens 3.061.
• From Jul 21 high 3.65 to Aug 2 low 2.747, the 61.8 percent retracement was near 3.306. The Aug 7 to Aug 8 rally failed near that band and rolled over, strengthening the bearish case for a deeper retrace.

Pivots, VWAP, and volume

• Classical daily pivots calculated off Aug 9 (H 3.3447, L 3.2160, C 3.2279) give P about 3.263, R1 about 3.310, S1 about 3.181, R2 about 3.391, S2 about 3.135. Today traveled from near R1 down through the pivot to challenge S1 and S2. This is a trend day lower profile that often extends slightly below S2 before a more stable bounce.
• Intraday VWAP for Aug 11 likely sat above price most of the day after the morning pop faded. Repeated rejections below VWAP are characteristic of distribution days; using VWAP as a dynamic sell zone aligns with a 3.19 to 3.22 entry bias.
• Volume: heavy sell volume accompanying the 08:00 to 12:00 UTC failures and the 19:00 UTC downtick indicates supply presence at 3.30 and 3.20 regions. OBV on intraday frames has rolled over, confirming distribution.

Wyckoff and liquidity view

• The spike to 3.326 appears as an upthrust over a short term range, immediately sold and followed by lower highs, a classic sign of distribution. Liquidity below equal lows around 3.15 remains vulnerable. Sweeping that pocket down into 3.10 to 3.08 would satisfy both liquidity and Fibonacci symmetry before a higher quality bounce attempt.

Regression and channel context

• A simple 1 hour linear regression from the Aug 8 peak to present slopes downward with price traveling near the lower half of the channel. A reversion to the regression mean aligns near 3.20, providing a tactical sell zone.

Elliott wave framing

• The Aug 2 to Aug 8 advance counts well as a five wave impulse. The current pullback fits as an ABC correction. Wave A likely ended near 3.03 on Aug 5, wave B topped at 3.376 on Aug 8, and wave C is unfolding now with equality projections pointing near 3.06 to 3.08 if momentum persists. That projection coincides with the 50 percent retracement.

Scenarios for the next 24 hours

• Base case 60 percent: Countertrend rally into 3.19 to 3.22 where supply reasserts, followed by continuation lower to tag 3.10 to 3.08. In this path, a short entry on strength is preferred to capture trend continuation.
• Bull case 25 percent: Strong reclaim and hold above 3.23, leading to a squeeze through 3.27 and a test of 3.30 to 3.33. This requires breadth and closing back above VWAP, which has not appeared yet. Bias flips to neutral above 3.26 and bullish above 3.30.
• Bear extension 15 percent: Immediate breakdown through 3.136 without a meaningful bounce, cascading to 3.06 and perhaps a probe toward 2.99 to 2.98 if momentum accelerates. Given the Monday profile and prior trend day, a small bounce before continuation is slightly more probable than straight line follow through.

Risk management and invalidation

• A tactical short opened near 3.20 should respect invalidation on a sustained reclaim above 3.26 to 3.27, where the 1 hour cloud and prior breakdown zone are retaken. That would raise the odds of a move into 3.30 to 3.33 and void the bearish continuation.
• Position sizing should acknowledge ATR around 0.18 to 0.22. A stop above 3.26 against a 3.08 target yields a reasonable reward to risk if filled near 3.20.

Trade plan and execution

• Plan: Sell strength into 3.20 with a target at 3.08, anticipating a 38.2 to 50 percent retrace completion of the Aug 2 to Aug 8 leg and a liquidity sweep below 3.15.
• Entry method: Use a limit sell around 3.200 to 3.205 to avoid chasing weakness and to align with VWAP and Kijun type means. If price fails to bounce, a smaller scale in on a break and retest of 3.15 can be considered, but the preferred risk adjusted entry is the 3.20 retest.
• Target: 3.080 aligns with the 50 percent fib 3.061 to 3.08 pocket, late July support cluster, and projected C wave equality region. Partials can be taken at 3.136 if risk management demands.

Conclusion

• Multiple tools converge on a short bias: lower high structure, intraday VWAP rejections, failure at key retracement resistance, alignment of pivots and fibs pointing to 3.10 to 3.08, and momentum below key means on the 1 hour. As such, the higher probability path for the next 24 hours is a bounce into 3.20 that fails, followed by continuation toward 3.08. Should price reclaim 3.26 to 3.27, this view is invalidated and caution is warranted.