XRP Golden-Pocket Reclaim: Coil Poised to Break Higher Toward 3.42 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish while 3.23–3.24 support holds; looking for a push toward 3.38–3.43 with a breakout trigger above 3.30–3.33.
• Plan: Buy the dip into 3.25–3.26 (near intraday VWAP/Kijun) or on momentum through 3.305; target 3.42–3.43. Invalidation below 3.21–3.23 zone.

1. Multi-timeframe price action

• Daily (swing context): XRP bottomed at 2.766 (Aug 2), impulsed to 3.375 (Aug 8), then retraced to ~3.135 (Aug 11). Current 3.266 sits above the golden-pocket reclaim (3.14 area) and above the 20D mean. Structure is higher low vs Aug 2 and Aug 11, indicative of re-accumulation after a sharp mid-July advance.
• Intraday (1h, Aug 13): Session ranged 3.22–3.29 with repeated tests of 3.28–3.29 and shallow pullbacks to 3.24–3.25. Price is compressing in a small ascending/neutral wedge; volume receded into the coil—typical pre-break behavior. Current print near 3.266 is just under intraday VWAP/AVWAP cluster around 3.27–3.28.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 3.11 (est.). Price > 20D SMA = positive short-term trend. 50D SMA (est. ~2.6–2.8) is also below price, maintaining a broader uptrend.
• Short MAs (8/21D EMAs) likely crossed up post-Aug 2 rebound; price consolidation above the 21D suggests pullbacks are being bought.
• Intraday EMAs (1h 20/50): Price oscillated around the 20/50 EMAs today; late-session reclaim hints at building momentum if 3.25 holds.

3. Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 50–54 (calc from last 14 closes ≈ 50.6 pre-today), i.e., midline-neutral with a slight upward slope following the golden-pocket bounce—room to run before overbought.
• 1h RSI oscillated between 45–58 today, consistent with range consolidation; minor hidden bullish divergence vs the 3.23–3.24 higher lows.
• MACD (daily): Histogram has been contracting negative to flat after the Aug 2–8 impulse and ABC pullback; signal curl up suggests momentum reset with potential for a fresh positive cross.
• Stochastics (1h/daily): 1h resetting near mid-zone; daily rising from neutral—supportive of a grind higher.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) est. ≈ 0.22–0.27. From 3.27, a typical daily move projects to 3.50 on the high side or 3.00 on the low side; however, recent realized range is skewed upward after the 61.8% retrace hold.
• Today’s realized 1h range ~0.07 (3.22–3.29) shows volatility compression; such contraction often precedes a directional expansion within 1–3 sessions.

5. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• Midline ≈ 3.11; bands est. ~[2.77, 3.45]. Price currently in upper half yet below upper band—constructive without being stretched. Mean-reversion risk is limited while above the midline and 3.14–3.18 shelf.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low (Aug 2) 2.766 → swing high (Aug 8) 3.375; key retraces: 38.2% ≈ 2.998, 50% ≈ 3.071, 61.8% ≈ 3.142. Price bottomed ~3.135 (Aug 11) at the 61.8%, then reclaimed. This “golden pocket reclaim” is a classic continuation cue. Next Fibonacci extensions from the Aug 11 higher low to today’s 3.29 cap project 3.35/3.42 as measured targets.

7. Ichimoku (1h/daily read)

• 1h: Price oscillates near Tenkan/Kijun around 3.26–3.27; cloud ahead is relatively flat near 3.26–3.28 (magnet). A clean 1h close above 3.30 should flip the 1h cloud bias positive and open 3.33/3.38.
• Daily: Price above a rising Kijun (est. ~3.10–3.15) post-bounce; cloud support sits well below current price—trend intact unless 3.14 fails decisively.

8. Market structure, levels, and pivots

• Supports: 3.23–3.24 (intraday basing), 3.18–3.20 (recent balance), 3.14 (61.8%), 3.05–3.11 (20D mean), 2.95, 2.77.
• Resistances: 3.29–3.33 (intraday and prior swing supply), 3.38–3.43 (measured move/Fib ext), 3.46, 3.55–3.65 (mid-July supply).
• Classic floor pivots using Aug 11 H/L/C: P ≈ 3.1946; R1 ≈ 3.2672 (today’s cap zone), R2 ≈ 3.3998. Price sitting at R1; push through tends to magnetize R2 ~3.40.

9. Volume and breadth

• Volume surged on rallies (Aug 7–8) and bled on pullbacks—constructive sign. Today’s intraday contraction into the wedge favors a kinetic move on re-acceleration. OBV (qualitative) trending higher since Aug 2.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Intraday: Neutral-to-ascending triangle/wedge 3.24–3.29. Measured local move ~0.05–0.07 points, which projects to ~3.34–3.36 on breakout; confluence with higher-timeframe targets extends that to 3.40–3.43.
• Higher-timeframe: Re-accumulation after ABC to 61.8%. A Sign of Strength (SOS) would be a decisive 1–4h close above 3.33 with volume.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott perspectives

• Wyckoff: Spring/test near 3.13 (Aug 11) and subsequent hold above 3.18 suggests Phase D type behavior—work toward SOS above 3.33.
• Elliott (heuristic): Impulse from 2.77→3.38 (wave 1), ABC to 3.13 (wave 2), now early wave 3 sequence toward 3.42–3.50 if 3.23–3.24 continues to hold.

12. VWAP and execution

• Intraday VWAP ~3.27–3.28. Price slightly below; a dip buy near 3.25–3.26 offers favorable R:R with invalidation under 3.21–3.23. Momentum entry: buy-stop above 3.305 for confirmation.

13. Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Bullish continuation: 55% — Break/hold above 3.30–3.33 unlocks 3.38 first, then 3.40–3.43 (R2/extension).
• Range-bound: 30% — Ping-pong 3.24–3.30, slow grind with VWAP magnet behavior.
• Bearish fade: 15% — Loss of 3.23 opens 3.18/3.14 retest; deeper risk toward 3.05 if 3.14 fails (lower probability given golden-pocket reclaim).

14. Risk management and invalidation

• Optimal dip entry: 3.25–3.26. Invalidation below 3.21–3.23 (close basis), as that would break the intraday higher-low chain and neutralize the bullish setup.
• Take profit: 3.42–3.43 aligns with R2 and Fib extension; partials at 3.34–3.38 reasonable on the way up. Expected move fits within ATR.

15. Synthesis

• Confluence checklist: 61.8% retrace hold and reclaim (bullish), price above 20D SMA (bullish), RSI midline reclaim (bullish), intraday wedge with volume contraction (breakout-prone), pivots indicate R1 magnet achieved with R2 ~3.40 next (bullish), resistance cluster 3.30–3.33 is the gate. Risk is cleanly defined below 3.23.

Conclusion: Buy the dip near 3.255 with a 24h target near 3.42–3.43. Alternative momentum add through 3.305 if breakout confirms. Invalidate on sustained trade below ~3.22.

Suggested trade details (for clarity; stop not part of required output fields)

• Entry: 3.255 (limit) or 3.305 (stop-entry breakout add)
• Target (TP): 3.428
• Stop (suggested): 3.214 (below intraday structure and beneath R1 flip), giving approx R:R ≥ 2:1 to the TP.