XRP: Buy the dip at 3.06 for a mean‑reversion push to the 3.20–3.22 pivot zone within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (mean-reversion) after today’s washout; expect a retest/undercut of 3.06–3.04 followed by a push toward 3.16–3.22. Expected range by ATR: 2.89–3.27.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 3.06 (into 50% Fib and daily S1 zone), target the volume node/pivot band at 3.20–3.22.

1. Multi-timeframe context and structure

• Higher-timeframe (daily): After the July upside impulse to ~3.65 (mid-July), XRP has been in a broad consolidation with higher lows since the Aug 2 low at 2.766 and a sequence of lower swing highs into Aug 8–13 (~3.32–3.38). Net: a contracting, mean-reverting regime, not a clear daily downtrend. Today’s daily candle printed a sizable range (H 3.344 / L 3.057) and closed near 3.078, probing key support but holding above the Aug 1 close (2.965) and far above the Aug 2 swing low (2.766). Structure remains constructive above ~3.00–2.96.
• Intraday (hourly): Last 24h show a pop to 3.34, then a controlled bleed to 3.10, capitulation wick to ~3.06 around 12:00 UTC, and basing between 3.07–3.10 into the close. Momentum loss on the downside and stabilization into the New York afternoon suggest sellers are tiring near support.

2. Support, resistance, liquidity

• Immediate support: 3.06–3.04 (today’s low ~3.056 sits on multiple confluences). Below: 3.00/2.99 round-number and daily S1 (calc 2.975), then 2.964–2.966 (Aug 1 settlement) and 2.90 (ATR band) as deeper levels.
• Overhead resistance: 3.16–3.18 (daily pivot band, former intraday supply), then 3.20–3.22 (composite high-volume node), 3.26–3.28 (range mid/high from Aug), and 3.32–3.35 (upper supply from today’s high and Aug 8 cluster).
• Liquidity map: Stops likely accumulated just below 3.06/3.04 and just above 3.16/3.20. Today’s undercut likely harvested long stops; remaining upside liquidity pockets sit near 3.16–3.22.

3. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.19 (computed from Aug 1–14 ranges). From 3.08, a typical 24h envelope = 2.89–3.27. Implies upside room of ~0.19 and similar downside risk if momentum persists.
• Hourly ranges compressed post-drop; vol contraction after an expansion often precedes a reversion toward the session VWAP/pivot.

4. Moving averages trend check

• Short-term EMAs (8/12) have rolled under the 21EMA on the daily after several sessions of chop: indicates near-term bearish pressure, but slope is flattening as price stabilizes above the 20–22 session average zone (~3.12–3.17 region). Mean reversion toward that band is favored if selling pressure continues to fade.
• Medium trend (50SMA) is below price and rising, confirming that the July impulse still dominates the broader trend backdrop; pullbacks above the 50SMA are typically buy-the-dip in the absence of structural breakdowns.

5. Ichimoku context (daily, conceptual)

• Price likely hovering around/below Tenkan and near the Kijun area; today’s dip pressed the conversion line and may have wicked into/near the base line. Lagging span remains above prior price from the July surge, and the cloud ahead is likely still supportive. This configuration often yields mean-reversion bounces toward the Kijun/Tenkan cluster (3.15–3.22 zone) unless the base line decisively breaks.

6. Bollinger/Keltner confluence

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): After several sessions of contraction, today tagged/sat near the lower band (~3.05–3.08 estimate) while the middle band (20SMA) sits around ~3.15. Lower-band touches in a range with no breakdown typically mean revert to the mid-band. Keltner channels (EMA20 ± 1.5*ATR) also place price near the lower envelope, favoring a bounce toward the center lines.

7. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-40s to low-50s after today’s drop—neither oversold nor overbought. The lack of divergence on daily is neutral, but proximity to support with RSI in the mid-zone suggests room to bounce.
• Hourly RSI/MACD: Hourly shows waning downside momentum—price made a marginally lower low around 12:00 UTC while momentum did not materially make new lows thereafter, hinting at budding bullish divergence. MACD on 1H is curling up from negative territory after the afternoon base.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Pressed and turning up from oversold bands, consistent with a short-term pop.

8. Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Today’s turnover elevated versus the prior week, with heavy volume printed during the sell leg between 12:00–16:00 UTC—often a sign of a near-term selling climax. Subsequent hours showed lighter but persistent dip-buying.
• Intraday VWAP for the session sits above last prints (given the early spike to 3.34); price closed below VWAP—classic mean-reversion setup if the down leg is exhausted. A typical path is early probe lower into resting liquidity (3.06/3.04), then a revert-to-VWAP/pivot drift toward 3.16–3.20.
• Composite profile (past 2–3 weeks) indicates a high-volume node around 3.20–3.22, acting as a magnet once downside pressure abates.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: Aug 2 low (2.766) to Aug 8/13 highs (3.375–3.324). Key retracements from 2.766→3.324: 38.2% ≈ 3.18, 50% ≈ 3.045, 61.8% ≈ 2.93. Today’s low 3.056 tagged the 50% zone; closes near the 50% retracement frequently bounce back to 38.2% on the next session (3.16–3.18).
• Secondary swing 2.766→3.375 yields a similar 50% ≈ 3.070 and 38.2% ≈ 3.19—tight confluence reinforces the support at ~3.05–3.07 and target near 3.16–3.19.

10. Pivot levels (calculated from today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ (3.3442 + 3.0568 + 3.0783)/3 ≈ 3.1598
• R1 ≈ 3.2628, S1 ≈ 2.9754, R2 ≈ 3.4472, S2 ≈ 2.8724
• Current price 3.078 sits in the S1–P band; in range-bound regimes, prices often revert to P on the following session. Therefore, P (3.16) is a tactical magnet.

11. Pattern recognition

• Intraday: Falling channel from the 3.34 high broke into a horizontal base ~3.07–3.10. That combination plus momentum divergence is typical of a near-term low. A push above 3.10–3.12 would confirm a local bear-to-bull transition on 1H and open 3.16–3.20.
• Daily: Ongoing post-breakout consolidation (July impulse) resembles a broad bull flag/symmetrical triangle. Today’s undercut respected the pattern’s lower boundary zone (~3.05). As long as 2.96–3.00 holds, the larger bullish structure remains intact.

12. Risk context and invalidation

• Invalidation for the bullish mean-reversion idea is a decisive breakdown through 3.04 with acceptance below ~3.00 (hourly closes), which would likely drive a test of 2.97 and potentially 2.93 (61.8% retrace). Given ATR, a 0.06–0.09 air-pocket under 3.04 is possible on a downside spike; hence the preference to stage entries near 3.06 with awareness of 3.00–2.98 as the final line.

13. Synthesis and 24h path projection

• Base case (≈60–65%): Early dip or shallow retest 3.06–3.04, then grind higher toward 3.12–3.16; if momentum improves above 3.16 pivot, extension to 3.20–3.22 where supply thickens.
• Bear case (≈35–40%): Loss of 3.04 leads to a fast tag of 3.00/2.98; if that fails, stretch to 2.93 before responsive buying. This scenario less likely given today’s heavy-volume flush and stabilization.

Actionable plan

• Bias: Buy (Long) on weakness into 3.06 area (confluence of 50% Fib, lower bands, and intraday demand). Target the pivot/POC cluster 3.20–3.22 within 24h. Time-in-market favored to be short (swing/overnight) given volatility.
• Why not short? While the daily candle is bearish, price is pressing multiconfluence support with mean-reversion signals and a strong composite node above. Shorting into support has inferior expected value versus buying the dip for a move back to the pivot/POC.

Note: This plan focuses on entry and target as requested. If you are implementing risk control, a typical protective stop would sit below 3.00 (or a tighter tactical stop under 3.04 if you prefer higher RR with greater stop-out probability).