XRP Sweeps Sub-3.00, Reclaims Momentum: Setup Favors a Dip-Buy Toward 3.15 Within 24 Hours

Step-by-step multi-angle technical assessment for XRP (last price ~3.0785)

1. Market regime and structure

• Trend context (Daily): The July breakout peaked near 3.65 (7/18) and has since consolidated with higher-timeframe trend still up. Price remains well above the prior June-July base (~2.0–2.4) and, probabilistically, above the 50D/100D MAs. Short-term momentum turned corrective after 8/7–8/13, but the last four sessions show stabilization around 3.05–3.11.
• Key levels: • Major swing high: 3.65 (7/18).
  • Recent pullback low cluster: 2.95–2.97 (today’s intraday sweep to ~2.948; 23.6% Fib).
  • Near-term resistance: 3.10–3.12 (38.2% Fib), 3.15, 3.20–3.22 (50% Fib), 3.28–3.32 (61.8% Fib).
  • Near-term support: 3.05, 3.00–2.97 (volume node/Fib), then 2.95 and 2.90.
• Liquidity dynamics: Today’s hourly tape swept sub-3.00 liquidity (low ~2.948), then reclaimed 3.00 and 3.06, indicative of a stop-run and absorption by buyers. Into the last hours, price held ~3.08 near the session’s upper Bollinger on H1.

2. Moving averages (confluence and slope)

• SMA(20) Daily ≈ 3.099 (approx calc from last 20 closes). Price ~3.0785 sits slightly below the 20D mean, signaling mild short-term pressure but close enough to pivot back above.
• SMA(7) Daily ≈ 3.141 (skewed higher by early-Aug strength). Price below SMA7 shows the correction phase is still active but becoming shallow.
• Medium-term MAs (50D/100D): Likely ~2.8–2.9 region; price > these averages maintains the bullish higher timeframe regime.
• Intraday EMAs (H1): After the morning dip, price reclaimed fast EMAs and is grinding above them into the close, indicating improving short-term momentum.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Estimated mid-40s to near-50 after pullback and stabilization—neither overbought nor oversold; room to push higher on a modest mean-reversion.
• RSI (H1): Recovered to ~55–60 post-sweep, consistent with bullish intraday thrust but slightly extended vs. short-term mean, so a small pullback buy is favored.
• Stochastic (H1): Recently cycled from oversold to mid/high range; expect minor dip-reset before a continuation attempt.

4. MACD

• MACD (Daily): Histogram negative to flat, with a deceleration of downside momentum since 8/14; close to curling if price reclaims SMA20 (3.10).
• MACD (H1): Crossed positive during the NY afternoon session, in line with the bounce off sub-3.00; slope remains constructive into the close.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• BB (Daily, 20,2): Mid-band ~3.10; lower band likely near 2.86–2.90; upper band ~3.34. Price is just below mid-band—classic spot for a mean-revert attempt toward 3.10–3.15 if support holds.
• BB (H1): Upper band reached ~3.08–3.09 into the last hours; a modest pullback to the mid-band (~3.04–3.06) is likely before the next push.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily, qualitative)

• Price above the Kumo on higher timeframe indicates the broader uptrend intact. Tenkan-sen likely above current price and Kijun around the 3.05–3.15 area; trading below Tenkan but above the cloud typically reflects a corrective phase within a bull trend. Reclaiming 3.10–3.12 would start to re-align Tenkan and improve the signal.

7. Fibonacci mapping (from 2.766 low on 8/2 to 3.65 high on 7/18; using the swing range for current consolidation)

• 23.6% ≈ 2.974: Today’s intraday sweep essentially tagged this retrace, then reversed—a positive tell.
• 38.2% ≈ 3.104: Immediate resistance zone; a key pivot for bullish continuation.
• 50% ≈ 3.208: Next objective on strength.
• 61.8% ≈ 3.312: Upper consolidation cap; aligns with 8/7–8/8 highs.

8. Volume and market profile

• July’s rally saw heavy participation; recent days show moderated but healthy volume in consolidation.
• Today’s intraday volume expanded on the dip and subsequent reclaim—typical of capitulatory flush and responsive buying.
• Visible range/POC (qualitative): 3.00–3.02 appears a high-activity node; reclaiming and holding above suggests buyers defend that area.

9. Candlestick/price action

• Daily prints since 8/14 show basing: a large volatile day on 8/14, then small real bodies near 3.08–3.11. Today’s session (intraday) features a long lower wick with close near highs—a hammer-like behavior indicating demand at sub-3.00.
• H1 shows a swing low at ~2.948, a series of higher lows, and a NY afternoon push to ~3.08–3.09.

10. Elliott wave/harmonic framing (qualitative)

• The July spike to 3.65 plausibly a wave 3 climax; current sideways/down is wave 4 flat/expanded flat type. The 23.6–38.2% retrace buy zone has been tested and defended, consistent with wave-4 behavior. A measured push toward 3.15–3.20 in the next session fits a minor wave recovery inside the larger structure.

11. Statistical/ATR-based expectations

• ATR(14) Daily roughly in the 0.16–0.22 range recently. From ~3.06–3.08, a one-day expected move comfortably accommodates a test of 3.12–3.15, with tail risk reaching 3.20 on a stronger session. Downside ATR suggests 3.00–2.97 retests if risk-off returns.

12. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Bullish base case (55%): Hold 3.03–3.06 on any pullback, reclaim 3.10–3.12, extend to 3.14–3.15; stretch objective 3.20 (50% Fib) if momentum broadens.
• Range case (30%): Chop 3.00–3.12 as bids and offers recycle around VWAP/BB mid-band; net change small.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 3.00 decisively, revisit 2.97 (23.6% Fib) and potentially 2.95; a daily close below 2.95 would open 2.90.

13. Trade plan logic (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy dips. The sub-3.00 liquidity sweep and immediate reclaim, plus proximity to 23.6% Fib and H1 momentum turn, favor a tactical long for a mean-reversion/pivot reclaim toward 3.12–3.15.
• Optimal entry: A limit buy slightly below current price, around the H1 mid-band/VWAP cluster at 3.06–3.07, seeks favorable R:R without chasing.
• Profit target: 3.14–3.15 aligns with daily BB mid/overhead supply and 38.2% Fib cluster—high likelihood of tag within 24h while staying conservative versus the 3.20 extension.
• Risk control (not part of final fields, but advised): Consider a stop under 2.95 (below today’s sweep and key support).

14. Synthesis

• Multiple tools converge: Fib 23.6% defended, H1 MACD positive, RSI supportive, daily price near SMA20 and BB mid with room upward, and the liquidity sweep suggests sellers exhausted near 2.95–2.97. Expect a modest bullish drift with pullbacks bought and a test of 3.12–3.15 in the next 24 hours.

Prediction next 24 hours: Mildly bullish to 3.14–3.15 after a dip toward 3.06.

Actionable decision: Buy on a pullback toward 3.06; target 3.145 within 24 hours. If price accelerates early and breaks/holds above 3.105 without dipping, momentum traders may consider a breakout entry (not reflected in the single open price field).