XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP: Sell the Throwback — Fade the 3.00 Retest Toward 2.85

Executive summary

Bias for next 24h: Bearish-to-neutral with a rally-then-fade profile. Expect a relief bounce toward 2.97–3.02 followed by another leg lower toward 2.84–2.86 if sellers defend 3.00–3.05.
Optimal plan: Sell the retest of the broken 3.00 handle (former support turned resistance). Take profit into 2.84–2.85 where multi-signal support clusters.
Invalidation (for risk control): Sustained reclaim above 3.06–3.10 would negate the immediate short-term bearish setup and open a squeeze to 3.12–3.16.

Higher timeframe backdrop (daily since late May): XRP broke out strongly in mid-July to ~3.65, then transitioned into a corrective phase with lower highs since 7/21–7/23 and distribution from 3.55 to 3.10.
Recent regime (last 10–12 daily candles): Post 8/13 swing to ~3.32–3.35, price rolled over sharply on 8/14 and has since carved a series of lower highs and marginally lower lows, consolidating in a 2.95–3.16 band before today’s clean break below 3.00.
Intraday (hourly 8/19): Clear break of the 3.00 floor at 14:00 UTC with expansion in downside volume, tagging 2.88–2.89 and closing near 2.90. Classic structure for a throwback/retest to the breakdown area before continuation.

Daily 20/50/100 EMA/SMA (estimates from price path):
- 20D SMA/EMA ≈ 3.10–3.12 and curling down. Price (2.90) trades below: short-term downtrend.
- 50D SMA likely ~2.70–2.85 after June’s 2.0–2.3 base and July’s spike; price is hovering around/just above it, making 2.80–2.85 a high-stakes battleground.
- 100D still much lower, reflecting the larger bullish trend that’s now consolidating. Net: short-term bearish, intermediate trend neutral-to-up.
Hourly 20/50 EMA: Bearishly stacked with price below both, indicating intraday momentum remains with sellers; expect rallies to be sold near the 50EMA on 1h (approx 2.98–3.02).

Daily RSI (approx): Mid-40s and slipping, below 50 = bearish momentum regime but not deeply oversold; room to grind lower before mean-revert.
Hourly RSI: Dipped toward low-30s on breakdown, modest recoil to mid-30s/low-40s with price at 2.90; this favors a bounce to neutralize intraday oversold before potential continuation.
MACD (daily): Bearish crossover post 8/14 with histogram below zero; confirms trend deceleration and favors selling rips.
MACD (hourly): Negative but flattening; conditions conducive to a countertrend pop into resistance zones.

Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.18–0.22. Today’s range (3.08 → 2.88) ~0.20, consistent with current ATR. Expect similar magnitude next 24h.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2) estimate: Mid-band near 3.10–3.12, lower band ~2.75–2.80. Close at 2.90 is closer to the lower band but not tagged; scope for a drift toward 2.80–2.85.
Hourly Bands: Lower band tag around 2.88 with mean reversion potential to the mid-band (near 2.97–3.00) before the next decision point.

Breakdown candle (14:00–16:00 UTC) showed elevated volume relative to prior hours, confirming participation in the move through 3.00.
Daily: 8/14–8/15 saw heavy sell volume and subsequent days lacked decisive buy-side follow-through; today’s red daily with a close near the lows is distribution-biased.
VWAP (session, intra-day estimate): Near ~3.00–3.02. Price below VWAP; rallies back to VWAP typically offer short entries in bearish sessions.
OBV impulse (qualitative): Has not reclaimed prior peaks despite several bounce attempts, indicating lingering supply.

Immediate resistance: 2.97–3.02 (broken floor + hourly mid-BB + intraday VWAP + classic S1/P pivot cluster). Additional resistance 3.05–3.06 (hourly 50EMA), then 3.10–3.12 (50% retrace of the 8/13→8/19 drop and daily mid-BB), and 3.16 (61.8% retrace), 3.28–3.30 (heavy supply).
Immediate support: 2.88–2.90 (today’s low cluster). Major support confluence 2.84–2.86:
- 50% retracement of the July impulse (approx from 2.05 to 3.65) is ~2.85.
- Classic pivot S2 from prior session calculations (~2.886).
- Near the 50D average gravity zone.
Deeper supports if momentum accelerates: 2.78–2.80 (daily lower BB), then 2.74–2.76.

Major swing (June low ~2.05 to July high ~3.65):
- 38.2% ~2.99 — already broken intraday.
- 50% ~2.85 — key magnet below; expect at least a reaction.
- 61.8% ~2.66 — unlikely in 24h barring shock, but defines downside tail risk.
Minor swing (8/13 high ~3.324 to 8/19 low ~2.878):
- 38.2% ~3.046; 50% ~3.101; 61.8% ~3.156.
- These align with resistance bands noted above; good fade zones if price spikes.

P ≈ 3.0348; S1 ≈ 2.9740; S2 ≈ 2.8865; R1 ≈ 3.1223.
Price closed near S2, which often precedes either a bounce toward S1/P or a trend day extension. Given breakdown confirmation, base case is a bounce to S1/P then rejection.

Daily: Price likely above the cloud base from the larger July uptrend but below Tenkan and near/below Kijun, indicating corrective phase within a broader bullish context; immediate signal is bearish while above-cloud status tempers crash risk.
Hourly: Price below cloud with a thickening Kumo overhead; first resistance zone coincides with 2.98–3.05.

Hourly descending triangle/rounded top from 8/16–8/19 with a flat base ~2.99–3.00, resolved lower at 14:00 UTC. Measuring move implies an extension roughly equal to the triangle height (~0.12–0.16), targeting ~2.84–2.88 from the 3.00 breakdown — consistent with our support map.
Daily candlestick (8/19): Bearish close near the lows (marubozu-like), favoring downside continuation after any relief bounce.

Base case (~55%): Throwback to 2.97–3.02 (VWAP/old support), rejection, then drift to 2.85–2.86. Potential intraday overshoot to 2.82 if momentum persists into US close/Asia open.
Alternative bounce (~25%): Stronger squeeze to 3.05–3.10 (38.2–50% retrace of 8/13→8/19 drop) before sellers reassert; daily close still sub-3.05.
Low-probability reversal (~20%): Sustained reclaim above 3.10–3.12 turns momentum neutral-to-bullish and targets 3.16; would invalidate the immediate short thesis for the 24h horizon.

Entry method: Limit sell on the retest of 3.00 (2.99–3.02), where multiple resistances cluster. If price fails to bounce and instead trends lower from here, secondary tactic is to sell a bear flag breakdown below 2.89 with tight risk; the primary, higher-R trade remains the throwback short.
Take-profit: 2.84–2.85 (first high-probability support). Scale out if active management allowed; for a single target, 2.845 maximizes confluence.
Invalidation/stop (for context): 3.06 initial, hard stop 3.10 conservative. Above 3.10, the path to 3.12–3.16 opens.

Multiple independent tools align: structure (L/H & breakdown), momentum (RSI/MACD < 50/0), volatility positioning (near lower BB but not exhausted), pivots (S2 close → throwback), Fibs (major 50% at 2.85 below, minor retrace resistances above), and intraday VWAP all argue for selling the bounce.
Therefore, probability-weighted edge favors a short into 3.00 with target around 2.85 over the next 24 hours.

24-hour price path projection

Likely path: 2.90 → 2.98–3.02 (bounce/throwback) → fade → 2.86–2.85 → stabilize around 2.85–2.88 into the following session. Upside risk to 3.06–3.10 if squeeze ensues; downside tail to 2.78 if momentum accelerates.