XRP’s 3.00 Magnet: Fade the Liquidity Sweep at 3.03 Toward 2.89

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Fade the first clean push into 3.02–3.05. Expect rejection toward 2.90–2.88, with risk of a stop‑run to ~3.06–3.10 before rolling over. Invalid if H1 closes >3.12.
• Plan: Place a limit short near 3.03 (above 3.00 round‑number liquidity and at fib/pivot confluence). First target 2.92 VWAP area; core take‑profit 2.89. If momentum accelerates through 3.06–3.12, stand aside or flip bias.

1. Market structure and context

• Daily trend: Since the 3.65 high (Jul 18), XRP has made a series of lower highs (3.55, 3.33, ~3.28/3.30, ~3.15) and lower lows, defining a descending channel. Yesterday printed a sharp selloff to 2.8529 (Aug 19 close 2.8529), followed by today’s bounce to ~2.98. Structure remains bearish below 3.12–3.15.
• Intraday (H1) trend: The last 24h show a constructive bounce from ~2.84–2.86 up into 2.98, riding above session VWAP. However, the rally is approaching stacked resistance: round number 3.00, prior breakdown shelf 2.99–3.03, and fib/pivot confluences.
• Regime: Post‑selloff mean‑reversion bounce inside a bigger daily downtrend with overhead supply. That favors shorting strength into resistance rather than chasing longs, unless the bounce converts key levels into support.

2. Key levels (confluence map)

• Resistance R1: 2.99–3.03 (round number, prior shelf; H1 highs; micro supply) R2: 3.05–3.06 (23.6% retrace of 3.65→2.85; stop‑run zone) R3: 3.10–3.15 (daily 20‑SMA vicinity and prior node; fib 38.2% of 3.32→2.85 at ~3.14) R4: 3.25–3.33 (major volume node; 50%–61.8% retraces of 3.65→2.85)
• Support S1: 2.94–2.92 (today’s VWAP/point of control region) S2: 2.90–2.88 (hourly pivot reactions; demand wick) S3: 2.85 (yesterday’s low; liquidity shelf) S4: 2.78–2.76 (Aug 2 cluster; next daily demand)

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20‑SMA (approx): ~3.08 (computed from last 20 closes ≈3.083). Price 2.97 is below → bearish bias on daily timescale; that SMA aligns with R3 band.
• Daily 50‑SMA (approx): likely high‑2.8s/low‑2.9s after July’s spike and June’s lows, so price is near/just above it; mixed signal but still below 20‑SMA implies bearish posture.
• H1 EMAs: Price is above intraday 21/50‑EMA after the bounce (bullish micro), but likely below H1 200‑EMA near ~3.04–3.06; first test of 200‑EMA often rejects in downtrends, matching our fade zone.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): After the selloff, RSI is likely in the low‑mid 40s, recovering but below 50. That’s a bearish‑neutral regime; rallies tend to stall at RSI 50–55 until trend shifts.
• H1 RSI(14): High‑50s to mid‑60s on the bounce. Mild risk of bearish divergence if price marginally exceeds 2.98–3.00 without RSI making a new high. Expect momentum to fade as it tags 3.02–3.05.
• Stoch RSI (H1): Near overbought after persistent grind higher; vulnerable to a cross down into resistance.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with histogram improving (less negative). Classic bear‑market rally behavior; momentum improving but not yet a full cross/flip.
• H1 MACD: Positive with narrowing histogram into resistance; ripe for a turn if price stalls at 3.02–3.05.

6. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.18–0.20. A 24h move of 6%–7% is routine; extremes 10% possible. From 2.97, an ATR swing spans roughly 2.79–3.15.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Midline ~3.08; lower band ~2.73–2.76, upper ~3.40–3.43. Price is below midline, typically a sell‑the‑rip mode into the midline.
• Keltner (Daily): Upper band likely ~3.18; aligns with R3/R4 zones. First band touch after a selloff often rejects.

7. Volume/flow

• Daily volume: The Aug 19 drop showed elevated volume (capitulation‑like). Today’s bounce volume is respectable but slimmer than the selloff — characteristic of reactive short covering and bargain bids rather than aggressive trend change.
• OBV (qualitative): Still net down from mid‑July; today’s recovery hasn’t reclaimed prior OBV breakdowns — suggests distribution persists on higher timeframes.
• Volume profile (July–Aug): High‑volume nodes at 3.10–3.15 and 3.28–3.33 above; lighter acceptance near 2.95–3.00. Price tends to reject from the heavy nodes on first test when coming from below.

8. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan (~3.12–3.15) and Kijun (~3.18–3.20). Cloud overhead. Bearish configuration with mean‑reversion room into Tenkan, but first attempts often fail. Converges with our R3/R4 resistance map.

9. Fibonacci grid

• Swing 3.65 (Jul 18) → 2.8529 (Aug 19): 23.6%: ~3.041 → right at our 3.03–3.05 fade zone 38.2%: ~3.157 50%: ~3.251 61.8%: ~3.347
• Intermediate swing 3.318 (Aug 7) → 2.8529: 38.2% ~3.03, 50% ~3.085, 61.8% ~3.14. Strong confluence at 3.03–3.05 and then 3.10–3.15.

10. Pivots, VWAP, and mean reversion

• Classic pivots using Aug 19 H/L/C (H=3.0803, L=2.8520, C=2.8529): P ≈ 2.9287, R1 ≈ 3.0055, R2 ≈ 3.157, S1 ≈ 2.777 Price is approaching R1 and sits well below R2. Expect first touch of R1 to act as resistance in a broader downtrend.
• Intraday VWAP (Aug 20 session): ~2.91–2.93 region. Price is currently above VWAP; in mean‑reverting regimes, stretched price above VWAP into R1 offers short entries back to VWAP.

11. Price action patterns

• Daily candles: Aug 19 printed a hammer‑like candle near 2.85; today is a green follow‑through toward resistance (standard two‑day counter‑trend). Common pattern: Day 1 bounce stalls at first supply zone, Day 2/3 retest lower.
• H1: Stair‑step advance with small‑bodied candles near 2.97–2.98, and an indecision/doji around 20:00 UTC. Suggests momentum tiring into the 3.00 handle.
• Liquidity dynamics: Clear stop liquidity just above 3.00/3.02 from shorts piling in early. Expect a small sweep to 3.03–3.05 before reversal — ideal place to enter a fade.

12. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• Daily ADX likely near low‑20s: trend present but not dominant; allows for sharp counter‑moves. In such conditions, fading into resistance with defined risk often outperforms chasing.

13. Elliott/Wave framing (heuristic)

• From 3.55/3.65 top: wave 1 down to ~3.08, wave 2 up to ~3.33, wave 3 down to 2.85. Current bounce likely a wave 4 toward 3.03–3.15, with room for a final wave 5 probe lower (2.78–2.76) if the bounce fails beneath 3.15. Our short aims to capture part of the wave‑4 failure back into the base.

14. Scenario planning (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Liquidity sweep 3.02–3.05, quick rejection, drift to 2.92 VWAP, overshoot 2.90–2.88, consolidation 2.89–2.94 into the daily close.
• Bull case (30%): Clean break and H1 hold above 3.05, push to 3.10–3.15 (20‑SMA/Tenkan/fib 50–61.8 cluster), then stall. Only above 3.15 would the short‑term bias flip to buy‑the‑dip toward 3.25.
• Bear tail (15%): Early failure below 2.95 without sweeping 3.00, accelerating to 2.85 and possibly 2.78–2.76 if risk sentiment sours. Would still offer cover windows at 2.89–2.90.

15. Risk management and execution

• Entry: Limit sell 3.03 to let price sweep above 3.00 and fill into confluence (pivot R1 + local fib 38.2/23.6 + H1 200‑EMA zone).
• Invalidation: Hard stop above 3.12 (H1 close above 3.12 or wick >3.15 for discretionary traders). That’s beyond the immediate confluence and through the daily 20‑SMA/Tenkan band.
• Profit targets: T1 2.92 (VWAP/point of control), T2 2.89 (core take‑profit), optional trail for 2.85 if momentum breaks.
• RR: Short 3.03 → TP 2.89 = +0.14; stop 3.12 = −0.09; RR ≈ 1.55:1 to core TP, 2:1 if extended to 2.85.
• Alternate plan: If price impulsively reclaims and holds >3.06–3.10 with expanding volume and H1 RSI firmly >65, abandon the short bias; momentum likely targets 3.14–3.15 first, then 3.25–3.28.

16. Why “Sell” and not “Buy” here?

• Multiple confluences cap the bounce: pivot R1 at ~3.01, fib 23.6/38.2 cluster ~3.03–3.05, H1 200‑EMA resistance, daily 20‑SMA overhead ~3.08–3.10, and a dominant daily downtrend. Mean‑reversion and supply overhead favor fading strength until proven otherwise (i.e., daily close back above 3.12–3.15).

24‑hour forecast path

• Asia open: Attempt to push/stop‑run above 3.00 into 3.03–3.05.
• Europe: Momentum fades; intraday roll over toward 2.94–2.92.
• U.S. hours: Either range around 2.92–2.96 or extend to 2.90–2.88. Base case close/settle near 2.90–2.94.

Bottom line

• The first test of 3.00–3.05 is for selling in the current structure. Set a limit at 3.03, target 2.89 within the next day, respect invalidation above 3.12.