XRP poised for a reflex bounce: Buying the 2.87 dip into 2.96–2.97 supply

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mild bullish mean-reversion from support; likely range 2.86–2.98 with upside probes toward 2.95–2.99. Break below 2.85 would negate and open 2.82–2.80.
• Plan: Stalk a buy-the-dip entry near 2.87–2.875, targeting a push into prior supply at 2.96–2.97 (front-run 2.97/3.00 offers).

1. Market structure and multi-timeframe read

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since the mid-July peak (3.65 on 7/18–7/21 cluster), XRP has been in a corrective downswing with a sequence of lower highs (3.556 on 7/22, 3.242–3.324 on 7/27–7/28, 3.182–3.174 on 7/29–7/31, 3.103–3.072 on 8/5–8/6, 3.318–3.376 on 8/7–8/8 failed breakout, then 3.28–3.27 on 8/12–8/13). Lows stepped down into a new swing low at 2.8529 (8/19). Today (8/21) holds above that low (L: 2.8586), implying a tentative higher low on the daily if it persists into close.
• Intermediate structure: Post 8/19 capitulation close (2.8529), 8/20 closed green at 2.9507, 8/21 is consolidating lower at 2.8812, but still above 8/19 low. This is typical of a basing attempt after a vol shock: one sharp bounce, one retest/under-cut attempt, then a grind.
• Intraday (hourly): Range-bound day between ~2.86 and ~2.95. Notable liquidity sweep at 19:00 UTC down to 2.8586 immediately reclaimed, followed by a recovery to ~2.882. That wick-and-reclaim behavior near a daily pivot is often short-term bullish (seller exhaustion/absorption).

2. Key levels

• Supports: 2.86 (today’s sweep low), 2.85 (8/19 daily close + round-trip shelf), 2.83 (8/20 low 2.8267 zone), 2.75 (8/2 close cluster), 2.70 (psychological if cascade).
• Resistances: 2.95 (yesterday’s close and intraday supply), 2.97–3.00 (psychological + offers), 3.03–3.06 (20D mean/BB mid and 23.6% Fib retrace of 3.65→2.85), 3.15 (38.2% Fib), 3.25 (50% Fib).

3. Momentum and mean-reversion signals

• RSI(14) daily: Est. low-40s after the 8/19 flush; near but not at classical oversold. That favors a bounce toward the 20D mean before the next decisive move.
• Stochastics daily: Likely rising from oversold region given the 8/20 rebound; supports a near-term up-tilt.
• MACD daily: Below zero with a flattening/contracting histogram post 8/19. Loss of downside momentum typically precedes a relief move into nearby resistance (2.95–3.03).

4. Trend and moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.967 (computed from 8/17–8/21 closes). Price (2.881) is below the short-term mean; reversion potential to ~2.96–2.97.
• 10D SMA ≈ 3.065. The slope is negative, reflecting an intermediate downtrend; first magnet remains the 5D/BB mid region before any test of 3.03–3.06.
• 20D SMA: Above price (low 3.0s), consistent with a pullback regime. Expect sellers to defend 3.00–3.06 on first test.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price hugged/lived near the lower band since 8/14–8/19; today is still in the lower half of the envelope. Tag-and-hold near lower band with contracting MACD hist often resolves with a pop back toward the mid-band (~3.03), though first friction is at 2.95–2.97.
• ATR(14) daily: Recent true ranges 0.20–0.32 suggest a 24h expected range of roughly ±0.12–0.18 from spot. From 2.88 that frames 2.76–3.00 as a fat-tail envelope; base case 2.86–2.98.
• Keltner Channels: Price is near/just outside the lower KC after 8/19; reversion to the basis line is typical when momentum wanes.

6. Ichimoku

• Tenkan-sen (9): Approx (HH+LL)/2 over last 9 days ≈ (3.346 + 2.827)/2 ≈ 3.086. Price < Tenkan: short-term bearish but stretched.
• Kijun (26): Above price; cloud (Senkou A/B) likely downward. In Ichimoku terms: bearish posture but extended below baselines, which favors a corrective snap-back toward Tenkan/Kijun before trend decision.

7. Fibonacci context (swing 3.65 → 2.853)

• 23.6%: ~3.04
• 38.2%: ~3.16
• 50%: ~3.25
• Current trades under 23.6%, indicating a weak retrace so far; first objective in any bounce is reclaim of 3.00–3.04. For the next 24h, a conservative target is the shelf just ahead of that (2.96–2.98).

8. Volume, flow, and candles

• Daily volumes expanded on down legs (8/14, 8/19) and tapered on bounces—classic correction behavior. Today’s intraday spike on the 19:00 wick likely indicates local absorption at ~2.86.
• OBV/Accum-Distribution (qualitative): The sharp down-day on 8/19 likely dented OBV; the flat-to-slightly-up intraday print since suggests stabilization rather than fresh distribution.
• Candles: 8/19 long-bodied down day (bear impulsive), 8/20 green candle (counter-trend bounce), 8/21 shaping a small-bodied consolidation with lower-shadow intraday hammers—constructive for a short-term bounce unless late-session supply overwhelms.

9. Pattern work

• Descending channel from mid-July peaks; price is sitting near the lower boundary after a stop-run to 2.85–2.86. Touches at channel lows often invite reflex rallies back to the channel median (currently ~2.97–3.00).
• Potential ABC correction: A down into late July/early Aug, B up into 8/7–8/8, C down into 8/19. If that read is right, we are in a post-C basing window, prone to choppy mean reversion upward.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion framework

• Short-term z-score vs 20D mean is negative and easing; typical 1–2 day outcomes skew to a +0.5 to +1.0 sigma bounce, which maps cleanly into 2.95–2.99.
• Time-of-day profile: Crypto tends to see incremental liquidity through US afternoon/Asia open; after a stop-sweep during EU/US overlap, bounces frequently mature into the Asia session if not sold immediately. That matches today’s wick-and-hold behavior.

11. Risk scenarios for the next 24h

• Bullish path (60%): Hold above 2.86–2.87, grind higher into 2.95, attempt 2.96–2.98. Momentum stalls below 3.00 on first test.
• Neutral (25%): Range 2.86–2.94; chop without resolution.
• Bearish break (15%): Lose 2.85 with momentum (fresh lows 2.83–2.80). Would invalidate the long idea and suggest continuation of the daily downtrend.

12. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence for a tactical long: Proximity to daily support (2.85–2.86), intraday liquidity sweep and reclaim, price below short-term means with MACD hist contraction, BB/KC reversion setup, and potential completion of an ABC leg. Against that, the intermediate trend is still down, so cap expectations to the nearest supply (2.95–2.99) for a 24h horizon.
• Execution: Use a buy-limit slightly below spot to exploit another minor dip; aim to exit before 3.00 where offers cluster. If price impulsively reclaims 2.95 with volume, momentum continuation could overshoot to ~2.99; I still prefer taking profit into 2.96–2.97 on a 24h trade.
• Invalidation (for risk context): A decisive hourly close below 2.85 increases odds of a slide to 2.83/2.80; in that case, stand down on longs.

24-hour price prediction

• Base case: XRP trades 2.86–2.98, with a bias for a late-session/Asia lift toward 2.95–2.97. Probability-weighted median close over next 24h ~2.94–2.96 if support holds.