XRP springs from a liquidity sweep: momentum poised to punch through 3.10 toward 3.16–3.18

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip setup. Expect a shallow pullback toward 3.05–3.06, then continuation into 3.15–3.18 if 3.10/3.12 is reclaimed with volume.
• Rationale: Strong intraday reversal from a liquidity sweep (2.784 low) back above daily pivot and the 20D mean; rising momentum, improving breadth/volume, and multiple tools aligning (VWAP reclaim, TK > KJ on Ichimoku, MACD turn).

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher-timeframe context (Daily): After the July run-up (peak ~3.65 on 7/18), XRP corrected into mid-August (floor ~2.85 on 8/19 and again 8/21–22), forming a potential double-bottom base. Today’s candle (8/22) rallied from 2.784 to close at 3.083 (+8% day), printing a strong bullish reversal with a long lower wick (bear-trap/stop-sweep below 2.85). Close is near the 20-day mean, suggesting a shift from oversold back to neutral/bullish.
• Market structure (Daily): Sequence is transitioning from LH/LL to potential HH/HL. Key lower highs sit at 3.28–3.38; breaking 3.18 then 3.28 would confirm a larger-structure reversal. Support stack now: 2.85 (double bottom) > 2.95–3.00 > 3.03–3.05. Resistance stack: 3.10–3.12 (near-term) > 3.16–3.18 (fib/psych + R1 vicinity) > 3.26–3.28 > 3.33–3.38.
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h): A clean impulse started at 14:00 UTC from ~2.84 to ~3.09 on heavy volume (largest bar of the day), followed by a tight bull-flag consolidation 3.06–3.09 into the close. Higher highs/lows on the hour reflect strong momentum with shallow dips bought.

2. Volume, liquidity, and participation

• Volume surge: Today’s daily volume (~9.6B) markedly exceeds recent sessions, validating the reversal. Hourly data show a pronounced expansion at 14:00 UTC—classic initiative buying after a liquidity sweep.
• Liquidity behavior: The sweep to 2.784 cleared liquidity below the widely-watched 2.85 double-bottom area and snapped back above major intraday reference levels (VWAP and pivot). This dynamic often precedes at least a second leg up as shorts cover and late sellers rebuy higher.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative read): OBV inflects higher on the largest green daily candle since early August; MFI likely rising from the mid-40s toward 60s, supportive of continuation.

3. Trend diagnostics (moving averages and ribbons)

• 20D SMA ≈ 3.092: Price closed fractionally below the 20SMA but has reclaimed it intraday several times; expect a test/reclaim early next session.
• 50D SMA (approx.): Sloped up and below price, reflecting an intact intermediate uptrend despite August consolidation.
• EMA cluster: Price sits above the fast EMA set (8–13) and near the 21EMA/20SMA zone. A clean hold above ~3.07–3.10 flips the short-term ribbon fully bullish.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily, est.): Recovering from low-40s into low/mid-50s; room to run before overbought. On hourly, RSI cooled from ~70s to low-60s during the bull flag—healthy consolidation.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram contracted for days and likely ticked green today; a signal-line cross to the upside is either in progress or imminent if price holds above 3.05–3.10.
• Stochastic (Daily/Hourly): Rising from oversold; hourly has reset mid-range during the flag, providing fuel for a fresh push if resistance breaks.

5. Volatility and mean-reversion lenses

• ATR(14D) est. ~0.24: Today’s true range (~0.31) is above average, typical for trend reversals; expect expanded but controlled volatility in the next session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~3.09. Price tagged/pierced the lower band earlier and mean-reverted back to the midline; typical pathway is a drift toward the upper band (est. ~3.30) if momentum persists. Near-term, the battle is at the midline: sustained closes above it favor upside follow-through.
• Keltner Channels: Price pressing from mid-channel toward upper band—consistent with impulse then flag behavior.

6. Ichimoku Cloud

• Tenkan (9) ≈ 3.088; Kijun (26) ≈ 3.061: Tenkan > Kijun (bullish TK alignment). Price is just a hair under Tenkan and above Kijun. A daily/4H close > Tenkan (3.088–3.10 cluster) would confirm momentum resumption.
• Cloud: Price likely above the cloud or testing its top; Senkou A around ~3.07. Holding above ~3.05–3.07 keeps bulls in control.

7. Fibonacci, pivots, and classical levels

• Larger swing: 7/18 high 3.65 to 8/19 low 2.8529. Key retracement resistances: 38.2% ≈ 3.157, 50% ≈ 3.251, 61.8% ≈ 3.346. Current price sits below 38.2%, leaving a natural magnet at ~3.16.
• Daily pivot (today): P ≈ 2.987, R1 ≈ 3.190, S1 ≈ 2.880. Price is holding above pivot; upside room to R1 with resistance likely building just under it (3.16–3.18), which aligns with Fib 38.2%—a high-probability first target.
• Donchian (20D): High ~3.376, low ~2.853, mid ~3.114. A sustained reclaim of the mid-line (~3.11) strengthens the bull case toward 3.25–3.28 on a multi-day basis; within 24h, 3.16–3.18 is the more realistic zone.

8. VWAP and intraday structure

• Session VWAP (8/22) is estimated around ~2.98–3.01 given the heavy volume during/after the impulse. Price > VWAP into the close is a constructive signal. Any orderly pullback toward 3.04–3.06 that maintains VWAP-on-dips behavior is a buy-the-dip opportunity.
• Micro pattern: Clear bull flag 3.06–3.09. A break and hold above 3.10–3.12 should release the next measured leg of ~0.10–0.12, projecting into 3.16–3.18.

9. ADX/DMI and breadth

• DMI: +DI has curled above –DI on the daily; ADX in the high-teens/low-20s likely turning up—indicative of a trend trying to reassert after consolidation.
• Breadth proxy: Multiple higher closes across recent sessions, improved participation during the impulse, and constructive consolidation suggest buyers have control near-term.

10. Candlestick and pattern read

• Today’s daily candle: Bullish engulfing with a long lower shadow after tagging the lower Bollinger—classic reversal signature.
• Double bottom: 2.85 zone held twice; the intraday undercut to 2.784 looks like a failed breakdown/liquidity sweep. That strengthens the support base and typically invites a second-day continuation toward the next resistance shelf.

11. Risk map and invalidation

• Bullish thesis holds while price is above 3.03–3.05 (prior breakout and EMA cluster). A firm break back below 3.00/VWAP would weaken momentum and risks a retest of 2.95 and 2.88–2.90.
• Upside cap in 24h likely near 3.16–3.18 (Fib 38.2%, pre-R1 supply). A swift, high-volume push through 3.18 could stretch toward 3.20–3.22, but base case is to respect first resistance.

12. 24-hour path expectation

• Most probable sequence: Early dip to 3.05–3.06 (tag prior flag base/EMA), then attempt through 3.10–3.12; if accepted above, momentum carries to 3.16–3.18. Consolidation likely near 3.16 with sellers defending below R1.
• Alternate (bearish) path probability lower: Failure at 3.10 leading to a deeper pullback toward 3.02–3.04; only a sustained break sub-3.00 flips bias back to neutral/bearish toward 2.95.

Conclusion and trade plan

• Confluence: Liquidity sweep + strong reversal, VWAP reclaim, improving momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch), bullish Ichimoku TK alignment, Bollinger midline test, and volume confirmation all favor a near-term long.
• Execution: Prefer a limit buy on a controlled pullback into 3.05–3.06. First target set just below the 3.16–3.18 resistance cluster to maximize fill probability.
• Note on risk: While not required for the output, a prudent stop would sit below 3.00 or tighter under 3.03 depending on risk tolerance and desired R:R.

Decision: Buy the dip; target the 3.16–3.18 zone within the next 24 hours.