XRP poised for a weekend VWAP squeeze: Buy the dip near $3.01, target the $3.15 supply

XRP (USD) exhaustive, step-by-step technical analysis and 24h trading plan

1. Regime and Structure

• Timeframes analyzed: Daily (May 26 — Aug 23) and Hourly (Aug 22 21:00 — Aug 23 21:00 UTC)
• Primary context: Strong impulsive rebound on Aug 22 (close ~3.0758 after a 2.784–3.098 range, high volume), followed by a low-volume, balanced consolidation on Aug 23 around 3.03. Price is sitting just under the 20-day SMA and above the daily pivot (from Aug 22), with clear near-term support at 2.97–3.01 and resistance at 3.06–3.10.
• Market structure (daily): July produced a strong uptrend (high ~3.65 on Jul 18–21), then a corrective downtrend into mid-Aug (low ~2.85 on Aug 19–21). The rebound on Aug 22 likely set a higher low versus Aug 2 (~2.766), hinting at a constructive base forming. To confirm a new short-term uptrend, bulls need a decisive reclaim of ~3.10–3.15 and then ~3.19–3.20.

2. Key Levels (confluence map)

• Supports: 3.03 VWAP/POC area (intraday), 3.01–3.02 hourly shelf, 2.98 (~Fib 38.2% from 2.784→3.098 and intraday low zone), 2.95 (Aug 20 close), 2.90–2.91 (Fib 61.8%), 2.85 (swing base cluster Aug 19–21).
• Resistances: 3.06–3.08 (hourly supply), 3.10–3.12 (20-day SMA region + prior daily supply), 3.143–3.15 (Jul 25 supply), 3.188–3.20 (R1 pivot zone), 3.28–3.32 (late July/early Aug), 3.35, 3.42, 3.55 (bigger-picture overhangs).

3. Moving Averages & Trend Indicators

• 20-day SMA ≈ 3.096 (est.): Price at 3.031 is just below the mid-band; expect mean-reversion pull toward 3.09–3.10 if buyers sustain.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Rising and likely near/just below 3.00–3.05 after July’s surge; price is hovering around/barely above it, indicating neutral-to-slightly bullish medium-term bias.
• 200-day SMA (qualitative): Below current price after months of uptrend; longer-term structure remains bullish.
• EMA short stack (intraday): Flattened post-surge; 1h EMAs compressed between ~3.01–3.05, signaling energy build for a directional move.
• ADX (daily, qualitative): Trend weakened during the mid-Aug correction, now stabilizing; an ADX ramp can accompany the next expansion if 3.10 breaks.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 43 (est.): Neutral-bearish tilt but rising after the Aug 22 impulse; headroom exists before any overbought constraint.
• Hourly RSI: Mild bullish divergence vs. early-hours lows (price retested ~3.01–3.02 with higher RSI), consistent with dip-buy demand.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram improving and near potential bull cross after Aug 22 surge, supporting a continuation attempt on strength above 3.06–3.10.

5. Volatility & Bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.18–0.20. A typical 24h swing envelope projects 2.85–3.21 around current price. Given weekend liquidity, tails may overshoot.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ~3.096; current price is below mid-band, above lower band, favoring mean-reversion toward 3.09–3.15 if 3.00 holds.
• Keltner Channels: Price inside; post-surge contraction suggests imminent range expansion when the 1h balance resolves.

6. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily Tenkan (~9-period midprice) likely ~3.05–3.07; Kijun (~26-period) ~3.17–3.20. Price below Kijun but near Tenkan signals early recovery phase; a reclaim of Tenkan and then a push toward Kijun is a classical bullish sequence.
• 1h Ichimoku: Flat Kijun/Tenkan during balance; a clean 1h close above ~3.06–3.08 with rising volume would likely trigger a momentum leg.

7. Volume, OBV, and Market Profile

• Volume: Aug 22 showed a decisive volume spike on a strong green candle (demand stepping in). Aug 23 consolidation printed lighter volume, constructive after an impulse.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since Aug 22, confirming accumulation under resistance.
• Market Profile/VWAP: 24h POC/VWAP clustered ~3.03; repeated acceptance above 3.00 implies buyers defending value. A migration of value above 3.05 would telegraph upside continuation.

8. Pivots (Classic, using Aug 22 H/L/C: 3.09799/2.78434/3.07577)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.986
• R1 ≈ 3.188 | R2 ≈ 3.300 | R3 ≈ 3.501
• S1 ≈ 2.874 | S2 ≈ 2.672 | S3 ≈ 2.461 Current price above P and below R1 suggests a bias toward testing 3.10–3.19 provided 2.98–3.00 holds.

9. Fibonacci Context

• Swing 2.784 → 3.098: 23.6% ≈ 3.024; 38.2% ≈ 2.977; 50% ≈ 2.941; 61.8% ≈ 2.904. Price holding above 23.6% and respecting 38.2% intraday is bullishly shallow retracement behavior.

10. Candlestick/Pattern Read

• Daily: Aug 22 produced a bullish marubozu-like candle; Aug 23 is a small-bodied inside/neutral session (near-doji) after a surge—often a continuation pause.
• Hourly: Balanced range 3.01–3.06 with higher-lows behavior intraday; potential ascending triangle if buyers continue to buy dips.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff (contextual, light application)

• Elliott: 2.85→3.10 may be Wave 1, Aug 23 pullback a Wave 2 flat; a break over 3.06–3.10 can kick off a Wave 3 toward 3.15–3.20.
• Wyckoff: Accumulation characteristics: selling climax near 2.85, automatic rally to ~3.10, secondary test ~2.98–3.01, then potential markup on breakout.

12. Correlation/Regime Risks

• Weekend liquidity can amplify moves through local levels. If broader crypto (e.g., BTC) remains stable or slightly positive, the XRP setup favors an upside resolution. A broad risk-off impulse could quickly revisit 2.95–2.90.

13. 24h Outlook (scenario tree)

• Base case (55–60%): Range early 3.00–3.06, then breakout attempt to 3.12–3.16; stretch toward 3.18 possible if volume expands.
• Range case (25–30%): Continued balance 2.99–3.06 without decisive breakout; Monday flow becomes the catalyst.
• Bear case (10–15%): Liquidity sweep down to 2.98→2.95; deeper only if 2.95 fails, exposing 2.91–2.90 and 2.85.

14. Trade Plan and Risk Management

• Bias: Buy dips within the 3.00–3.02 value area or buy a breakout through 3.06–3.08 with confirmation.
• Optimal entry (limit buy): 3.015 (near intraday shelf and above Fib 23.6%).
• Take-profit (conservative into resistance): 3.148 (below 3.15 daily supply to improve fill odds; aligns with the next resistance band).
• Suggested stop (not requested in fields but prudent): 2.948 (just under 50% retrace and below recent intraday floors). Approx. R:R ≈ 2:1 from 3.015 → 3.148 with a 2.948 stop.
• Contingency: If no dip fills and price breaks and holds above 3.068–3.080 on rising volume, a momentum entry could target 3.15–3.19, but that’s a secondary trigger.

Conclusion and Call

• Evidence across momentum turn, volume confirmation, shallow Fibonacci retrace, position above the daily pivot, and intraday balance near VWAP supports a Buy-the-Dip plan. Expect a 24h push toward 3.12–3.16, with a potential extension to ~3.18 if conditions are favorable.