XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP teeters at $3: Pivot fade favored as descending triangle targets a 2.95–2.98 sweep

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a liquidity sweep under 3.00 with a test of 2.98–2.95 before any meaningful rebound. Fade rallies into 3.05–3.10.
Plan: Short into strength near pivot resistance; target the first downside supports.

Higher timeframe (daily): Uptrend from June (2.10–2.30 base) to July peak (~3.65), followed by a corrective phase since early August. Price now trades below the 20‑day SMA but likely still above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a pullback within a broader uptrend. Structure since Aug 8 shows lower highs and lower lows (a short-term downtrend inside a larger uptrend).
Medium timeframe (4H/1H proxy from hourly tape): Today printed a failed breakout to ~3.11–3.12, then swift rejection to ~3.02 and a weak close around 3.03. Intraday lower-highs capped ~3.10–3.12 act as supply. Multiple tests of 3.00 suggest support is fragile.
Market structure: A developing descending triangle since Aug 8 with a flat-ish base around 2.95–3.00 and descending highs (~3.34 → 3.28 → 3.17 → 3.10). Such patterns often resolve lower if the base is tested repeatedly.

Resistance: 3.05–3.06 (daily pivot area), 3.10–3.12 (R1 and today’s failed breakout zone), 3.15 (38.2% retrace of the Jul high → Aug 19 low), 3.24–3.26 (50% retrace), 3.32–3.35 (61.8%).
Support: 3.00–2.99 (psych round + local liquidity shelf), 2.98 (S1), 2.95 (recent cluster), 2.93–2.93 (S2 ~2.932), 2.90, then 2.85 (Aug 19 low), and 2.77 (Aug 2 pivot/BB lower vicinity previously).

20‑day SMA ≈ 3.094 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 3.031 is below the 20SMA → short-term bearish bias.
9‑day EMA (approx) hovers near 3.02–3.05; price is oscillating around it → momentum indecision, but still under the 20SMA.
50‑day SMA (approx) likely in the 2.7–2.8s given June base and July run; price is above it → larger trend intact, correction ongoing.
Implication: With price below 20SMA and under pivot, mean reversion rallies toward 3.05–3.09 are sellable until a daily close >3.10–3.12 resets momentum.

RSI (daily, est.): mid-40s to high-40s following the Aug 19 flush to 2.85 and partial bounce; no strong divergence. This neither confirms a bottom nor invalidates further downside.
MACD (daily): Likely below signal with a shallow negative histogram that tried to improve into Aug 22 but stalled → rallies fading.
Stochastics (daily): Mid-range, not overbought; room lower before oversold.
Hourly RSI: Intraday expansion to ~3.11 then hard fade suggests a bear regime where rallies quickly exhaust.

Recent daily ranges ~0.12–0.30. Today H/L ~3.122/3.002 ⇒ range ≈ 0.12, a contraction after Aug 22 expansion. Contraction near support often precedes a stop sweep.
Bollinger Bands (20,2) approx: Midline ~3.094, inferred lower band likely ~2.73–2.78 given recent vol. Price is in the lower half of the bands; no squeeze signal, leaving room for a drift lower to test mid-late August supports.

Price likely below the Kijun (~3.13–3.15) and near/below Tenkan (~3.02–3.05). Cloud ahead probably flat-to-lower around 3.15–3.20. Below Kijun and below/inside cloud = bearish-to-neutral. A move above 3.12–3.15 is needed to regain momentum.

Aug 2 low (2.766) → Aug 8 high (3.376): 61.8% retracement ≈ 3.00. Price repeatedly respects 3.00 as support; however repeated tests weaken it. 50% ≈ 3.07 (today’s rejection zone). Textbook: support at 61.8%, resistance at 50% within a corrective leg → favors a downside probe before any breakout.
Jul 21 swing high (~3.64) → Aug 19 low (2.853): 38.2% up-retrace ≈ 3.154; 50% ≈ 3.247; 61.8% ≈ 3.340. The bounce has been shallow, stalling well under 3.154 → sellers still control the corrective phase.

H=3.1218, L=3.0022, C=3.0310 (rounded). Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 3.0517.
R1 ≈ 3.1012, R2 ≈ 3.1713; S1 ≈ 2.9816, S2 ≈ 2.9321.
Price closed below P and failed at R1 area earlier. Expect mean reversion into P (3.05–3.06) to attract sellers; S1 and possibly a tag of S2 are feasible in the next 24h if 3.00 breaks.

Strong expansion on the Aug 22 pop to 3.076, but no follow-through as subsequent sessions rolled over. Today’s intraday spike to 3.11 drew sell volume; the drop to ~3.02 had heavier prints than the bounce attempts, indicating supply dominating near 3.08–3.12.
Volume-by-price (inferred): Heavy transaction density around 3.00–3.05 and 3.18–3.30, with a vacuum between 2.95–2.98 and 3.05–3.10. Once 3.00 gives way, a fast move to 2.95 is plausible.

Descending triangle: Lower highs compressing into a horizontal base near 3.00. This is a continuation pattern when formed after a drop (as it did after Aug 8 top), biasing a downside break.
Failed breakout: The 18:00 UTC hour’s rally to ~3.11–3.12 was rejected sharply. Bull traps at resistance often precede a sweep of the opposite liquidity pool → under 3.00.

Base case (45%): Range-to-bearish. Early-session drift to pivot 3.05–3.06, sellers step in, price rotates back to 3.00, wicks to 2.98–2.95, then stabilizes ~2.97–3.01 into the following session.
Bear extension (30%): Quick failure at or below 3.03, decisive break of 3.00, acceleration to 2.95, extension to 2.93 (S2) and potential 2.90 sweep before a reaction bounce.
Bull surprise (25%): Sustained reclaim of 3.06, strong push through 3.10–3.12, daily close >3.12 leads to a squeeze toward 3.15–3.17. This would neutralize the immediate bearish setup but still faces higher-timeframe resistance.

Short trigger zone: 3.05–3.06 (pivot retest and underside of intraday structure). This maximizes R multiple and aligns with today’s dynamics.
Invalidation (for shorts): Sustained break and hourly close >3.12 (R1/R2 span and supply shelf). A daily close above ~3.15 would shift the 1–3 day bias to neutral/bullish.
Profit-taking zones: First target S1 ~2.98; stretch 2.95 where responsive buyers are likely; tail risk prints 2.93–2.90 if stops cascade.

Although 3.00 is a fib and psychological support, multiple retests have weakened it. Momentum and market structure favor a final sweep lower before any durable bounce. Buying now relies on front-running a floor without confirmation.

Bottom line

The confluence of a descending triangle, rejection at the 50% fib (~3.07), price below the 20SMA and below the daily pivot, and intraday supply at 3.10–3.12 supports a tactical short. Look to sell a rally into 3.05–3.06 with targets at 2.98 first and 2.95 as an extension. A decisive reclaim >3.12 invalidates the idea and opens 3.15–3.17.

24h price path expectation

Likely path: 3.05–3.06 test → rejection → 3.00 break → 2.98–2.95 tag → late-session stabilization near 2.97–3.00.
Alternative: If 3.12 is reclaimed with momentum, squeeze toward 3.15–3.17 before new decisions.