XRP sits on the ledge: Short the 2.86 retest as the descending triangle strains

Executive summary

• Instrument: XRP/USD
• Current price: 2.8415
• 24h context: Price slipped from the 3.02–2.96 intraday band to a fresh local low at 2.84 with a high-volume bearish hourly marubozu at 20:00 UTC, putting price back on the key 2.84–2.86 support shelf defined by the Aug 19–21 lows.
• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-neutral with elevated risk of a support break. Base case is a break-and-retest of 2.84–2.86 that resolves lower toward 2.78–2.75.

Step-by-step multi-timeframe analysis

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: After the July blow-off top (3.65 on 7/18), XRP has carved a series of lower highs (3.55 on 7/22, ~3.38 on 8/8, ~3.28–3.32 mid-Aug) and lower lows, forming a descending channel/descending triangle with a horizontal base near 2.84–2.86. Recent bounces have been shallow (8/22–8/24 failed to clear even 38.2% fib of the last down-leg), pointing to supply dominance.
• 4H/1H structure: Today’s session showed a tight 2.93–2.97 coil through most of the day, then a decisive break at 19:00–20:00 UTC down to 2.84 on expanding volume. That candle closed near the low (marubozu) – a continuation signature. Immediate overhead intraday resistance now 2.90–2.96, with prior support at 2.95 turned resistance.
• Key levels from the tape: • Support: 2.84–2.86 (Aug 19–21 closing shelf), 2.826–2.829 (Aug 20 intraday pivot), 2.784 (Aug 22 low), 2.747 (Aug 2 low). • Resistance: 2.90–2.96 (hourly breakdown zone), 3.00–3.05 (round number + 20D mean area), 3.12–3.16 (8/24 high and 38.2% retrace of 2.85→3.65).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approx): • 20D SMA ≈ 3.05–3.10; price below it (short-term bearish). • 50D SMA ≈ 2.70–2.80; price still at/above it (intermediate trend neutral-to-bullish). • Slope check: 20D has rolled over; 50D remains upward-sloping, consistent with a corrective phase within a larger uptrend.
• 4H/1H EMAs: Price is below 1H and 4H 20/50 EMA clusters; intra-session EMA ribbon flipped bearish earlier and widened post-breakdown, indicating momentum alignment to the downside.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated in the low- to mid-40s, below the midline, not oversold – headroom for further downside before daily mean-reversion pressure kicks in.
• 1H RSI(14): Dipped into high-20s on the 20:00 UTC dump; could allow a reflexive intraday bounce toward 2.86–2.90, but unless RSI recaptures and holds above 50 on 1H, bounces are likely to be sold.
• Stochastic (1H): Near oversold; expect a short-lived bounce or sideways pause before next push.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below signal and trending down, histogram negative – bearish medium-term momentum.
• 1H MACD: Strong negative post-break; watch for a small histogram contraction on any bounce into 2.86–2.90 for a better-timed short add/entry.

5. Volatility and range

• Daily ATR(14) rough estimate: ~0.18–0.22. With price at 2.84, a 1×ATR move implies 2.62–3.06 bounds; a 0.5×ATR slide points to ~2.73. Given today’s expansion, risk of a 0.3–0.6×ATR extension lower is elevated.
• 1H Bollinger Bands: Bands expanded on the breakdown with price hugging the lower band – momentum continuation setup after a brief mean-reversion pop is common in this configuration.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• Middle band (~20SMA) above at ~3.06; price under the mid-band with bands moderately wide – classic bearish phase. Not yet at the lower daily band, leaving room below toward high-2.7s without being statistically extreme.

7. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Intraday: 20:00 UTC candle printed materially higher volume versus prior hours, confirming selling conviction on the break.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs since late July and failure to expand on green days suggests distribution. Money Flow Index would likely mirror this with sub-50 prints on the daily.

8. Ichimoku (trend model)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; still above a likely rising cloud – macro uptrend intact but corrective leg alive, with resistance from Kijun/Tenkan capping rallies.
• 4H: Price below cloud and baseline; any bounce likely stalls into the underside of the cloud near 2.95–3.02.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• From 7/18 high (3.65) to 8/19 swing low (~2.853): • 38.2% = ~3.157; 50% = ~3.251; 61.8% = ~3.344. • The Aug 22–24 bounce failed below 38.2% (weak corrective energy). Retest of the base (2.84–2.86) typically follows such shallow retraces; repeated tests increase breakdown odds.
• Micro swing (8/24 high 3.1237 to today’s 2.8415): 38.2%–61.8% bounce zone sits ~2.95–3.03. That aligns with broken support/MA resistance, ideal for selling rallies.

10. Pivots and VWAP

• Classic daily pivots (derived from 8/24): Pivot ≈ 3.05; S1 ≈ 2.98; S2 ≈ 2.92. Price is now below S2, approaching S3 territory – trend day behavior with downside bias.
• Session VWAP (intraday): Price trading below session VWAP (clustered ~2.95), signaling persistent intraday distribution; fades toward VWAP likely get sold while under it.

11. Pattern recognition and Wyckoff lens

• Descending triangle: Flat support at ~2.85 with descending supply line from 3.37/3.28/3.12; repeated support taps have produced weaker bounces – a textbook setup for a downward break.
• Wyckoff: Late-July to mid-Aug resembles a distribution; recent action looks like a sign of weakness (SOW) and last point of supply (LPSY) near 3.02–3.12 before markdown toward 2.78–2.75.

12. Candlestick context

• Hourly: 20:00 UTC long-bodied red close near the lows (marubozu) confirms momentum. Expect either: • Immediate continuation to 2.80–2.78; or • Brief retest of 2.86–2.90 (prior support → resistance) and then continuation lower.

13. Volume profile and liquidity zones

• Visible range over Aug: High-volume nodes near 3.05 and 2.95; a local low-volume pocket spans ~2.84–2.79. A sustained break under 2.84 can accelerate through this pocket toward the next demand node around 2.78–2.75.

14. Risk scenario assessment (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Break-and-retest of 2.84–2.86, continuation to 2.78; possible extension to 2.75 if momentum persists.
• Alternate bull case (≈30%): Support holds; mean-reversion bounce toward 2.95–3.00; stalls below 3.03–3.06 unless fresh catalysts arrive.
• Tail risk squeeze (≈10%): Swift reclaim of 2.96–3.03 and daily close back above 3.05 (20D SMA area) would neutralize the short and re-open 3.12–3.16.

15. Trade plan synthesis

• Rationale to short: Confluence of descending triangle, repeated weak bounces, breakdown candle on volume, sub-20D trend and sub-VWAP posture, and room to daily lower band/next demand.
• Optimal entry: Prefer a patient entry on a bounce/retest into 2.85–2.87 to improve risk/reward. Momentum entries on fresh lows are possible but face higher whipsaw risk.
• Targeting: First target 2.78 (above Aug 22 low 2.784 to front-run bids). Extension target 2.75 if momentum persists. Given the brief horizon (24h), prioritize T1.
• Risk control (for context): A tactical stop above 2.915 (back above micro structure and into S1) balances the profile; a wider invalidation above ~2.96 (back inside pre-break range) is conservative but lowers R:R. Trail if price accelerates through 2.80.

24-hour price outlook

• Expected path: Minor bounce to 2.86–2.90 → rejection → drift lower into 2.80–2.78. Volatility elevated; spikes are sell opportunities while below 2.95–3.00.
• Key invalidation intraday: Strong reclaim and hold above 2.96–3.00 with rising 1H RSI through 50 and MACD cross would temper the short.

Conclusion

• The tactical edge favors a short on a break-and-retest of 2.84–2.86 aiming for 2.78 within 24 hours. Probability-weighted outcomes and indicator confluence point to further downside unless bulls swiftly retake 2.96–3.00.