XRP poised for a 3.07 breakout: Buy the dip toward 3.02 for a 3.13 target within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation with a test of 3.07 resistance and potential extension toward 3.12–3.15 (pivot R2 / Fib cluster). Preferred plan: Buy-the-dip toward 3.01–3.03 with TP near 3.13. Contingency: Breakout add above 3.08 if momentum accelerates.
• Probabilistic view (subjective, from the shown data): Upside continuation 60–65%, range-bound 25–30%, downside break <2.95 about 10–15%.

Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • From June lows (~2.01) to July spike (~3.65), trend remains structurally bullish despite August pullback to ~2.85 (Aug 19). Current price 3.035 sits above the summer’s base and below July’s highs.
  • Market structure: Pullback into higher-low region (2.85–2.90) then rebound; sequence of higher lows since Aug 19 signals constructive base-building. To reassert a daily uptrend, bulls need a close above 3.12–3.16 (tops from Aug 24 and pivot R2).
  • Key daily levels: Support 2.85–2.90 (recent swing/ATR lower band), 2.95 (round/HVN). Resistance 3.07 (intraday local high), 3.12–3.16 (pivot R2 / prior high), 3.25–3.26 (50% retrace of 3.65→2.853 move), 3.32–3.35 (61.8% retrace / prior supply shelf).
• Intraday (hourly):
  • Clear stair-step advance from 2.86 toward 3.07, pullback to ~3.03. Strong impulse 18–19 UTC, consolidation above 3.00, showing acceptance above broken resistance (~2.95–2.97). Volume expanded on upswings, contracted on pullbacks—bullish volume signature.
  • Pattern: Emerging ascending triangle/rounded base with horizontal lid ~3.07–3.08. Liquidity likely resting above 3.07; a stop run could extend to 3.10–3.13 quickly.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 3.09 (approx from last 20 closes). Price 3.035 is just under the 20D mean—neutral-to-slightly-bearish on this lens but curling.
• Daily SMA(50) estimated near 2.80–2.90; price above it—intermediate trend remains positive.
• Hourly EMAs (10/20/50): Price above 10/20/50-hour EMAs after the afternoon rally. Pullbacks toward the 20–50 EMA band (approx 2.97–3.01) have been bought—good dip-buy zone.
• Slope: Intraday MA slopes are up; daily 20D slope flattening, suggesting an inflection zone where momentum can re-accelerate if resistance breaks.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): mid-band (~48–52) after the bounce—room to run before overbought; not a headwind.
• Hourly RSI(14): printed strong >60 readings on the 18–19 UTC thrust; recent minor mean reversion to mid-50s. This supports buy-the-dip rather than chasing every uptick.
• Stochastic (hourly): rolling down from overbought toward neutral; a reset into 40–50 with price holding >3.00 typically precedes the next leg higher.
• MACD:
  • Daily: histogram negative-to-flat but rising; signal-line approach suggests a potential bullish cross if price pushes through 3.10–3.15 in the next sessions.
  • Hourly: MACD positive and above signal; small pullback in histogram consistent with consolidation above 3.00 before next attempt higher.

Volatility and ranges

• Recent daily true ranges ~0.20–0.30; 14D ATR estimated ~0.18–0.22. Implies a 24h expected move around ±0.18–0.22 from 3.03 → typical range 2.82–3.25. Our upside magnet 3.12–3.15 sits comfortably inside ATR—achievable without extraordinary conditions.
• Hourly Bollinger Bands: Earlier touch of upper band near 3.07, now re-centering; mid-band likely ~2.95–2.98. A constructive pullback to the mid-band that holds is a classic continuation setup.
• Daily Bollinger Bands: Mid-band ≈ 20D SMA ~3.09; price slightly below mid—neutral. Lower band ~2.85 aligns with the Aug 19 swing, reinforcing that floor.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price likely above the cloud, with Tenkan near/just above spot and Kijun estimated ~3.12–3.15. Reclaiming Kijun on a closing basis often unlocks trend continuation; that aligns with our 3.12–3.15 target band.
• Hourly: Price above cloud; pullbacks into cloud top (~2.98–3.00) have been defended—another confluence with our entry zone.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing July 18 high 3.65 to Aug 19 low 2.853: range = 0.797.
  • 23.6%: 3.041; 38.2%: 3.157; 50%: 3.252; 61.8%: 3.348.
  • Spot 3.035 is pinging the 23.6% level; acceptance above 3.04 increases odds of a magnet to 3.157 (which coincides with upper intraday targets just beyond 3.12).
• Micro swing today 2.861→3.073: range = 0.212.
  • 23.6% retrace ≈ 3.023; 38.2% ≈ 2.993; 50% ≈ 2.967; 61.8% ≈ 2.943.
  • An ideal dip-buy sits at 3.01–3.02 (23.6–30% retrace) with deeper support 2.99–2.97 (38–50%).

Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume expansion on green hours (notably 19:00 UTC) and lighter on the pullback hints at healthy demand.
• OBV (qualitative from the prints) rising from the day’s open; no divergence warning into 3.07 yet.
• Volume profile (recent sessions): HVN around 3.00; LVN 3.10–3.12. Once above 3.07, price can traverse the LVN quickly, favoring a swift tag of 3.12–3.15.

Pivot points (classic, derived from Aug 25 H/L/C ≈ 3.049/2.833/2.861)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.915; R1 ≈ 2.996 (reclaimed); R2 ≈ 3.130; R3 ≈ 3.212. Today’s path suggests a test of R2 if momentum persists.

Support/resistance and liquidity

• Supports: 3.02–3.00 (intraday micro fib and MA band), 2.97–2.95 (50% micro retrace + prior lid), 2.90, 2.86 (session open and prior low).
• Resistances: 3.07–3.08 (intraday lid), 3.12–3.15 (pivot R2 + prior daily swing), 3.25–3.26 (50% higher-timeframe fib), 3.32–3.35 (61.8% fib / supply belt).
• Liquidity: Clustered stops likely above 3.07; a sweep could fuel a momentum burst to 3.12+. On the downside, liquidity pockets near 2.99 and 2.95.

Fractals and patterns

• Elliott wave (intraday hypothesis): Wave 1 up 2.86→3.07, Wave 2 pullback 3.07→~3.02, potential Wave 3 toward 3.12–3.16 if 3.07 clears.
• Harmonic hint: Minor AB=CD projects A (2.90)→B (3.07), C (~3.00)→D (~3.17). Our TP sits conservatively before D.
• Candlesticks: Strong bullish hour near 19:00 UTC (wide spread, closing near high), followed by inside/consolidation candles—typical bull flag behavior.

ADX/DM and risk lens

• Daily ADX likely ~20–22: trend not overheated, room for trend development. +DI curling up post Aug 19.
• Risk: A decisive rejection at 3.07 and loss of 2.95 would defer the setup and reopen a test of 2.90/2.86. That scenario currently lower probability given buy-the-dip character of today’s flows.

VWAPs and anchored references

• Session VWAP from today’s open (~2.861) likely ~2.95–2.97; spot > VWAP indicates buyers in control intraday.
• Anchored VWAP from Aug 19 low (~2.853) approximates near 3.03–3.05; we are oscillating around it—acceptance above improves odds of the drift to 3.12–3.16.

Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Thesis: Momentum turned positive intraday above reclaimed supports (2.95–3.00), with a nearby overhang at 3.07. The confluence of pivot R2 (3.13), Fib 23.6→38.2 step (3.04→3.16), and LVN gap argues for an upside probe if 3.07 gives way. Risk is defined below 2.95 where structure falters.
• Execution: Prefer limit buy on a shallow fade into 3.01–3.03 to capture favorable R:R, targeting 3.13 within 24h. Optional add-on trigger on breakout >3.08 for momentum traders. A protective stop (not requested but prudent) would sit ~2.94.

Next 24h price path expectation

• Base case: Consolidate 3.00–3.05, then break 3.07 to tag 3.12–3.15.
• Alternate: Deeper dip to 2.97–2.99 then launch. Bear case: Loss of 2.95 leads to 2.90–2.92 retest (lower probability today).

Conclusion

• Signal: Buy-the-dip bias. Use 3.02 as optimal entry. Target 3.13 (pivot R2 / overhead supply edge). This aligns with improving intraday momentum, constructive market structure, and multiple indicator confluences while respecting ATR constraints.