XRP Coils Under the Pivot: Fade the 3.01 Pop, Target 2.94 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish to range-bound. Expect a pop toward 2.99–3.02 (daily pivot zone) that fades, with a downside probe toward 2.94–2.93. Path probability ~60% fade, 30% range hold, 10% upside break.
• Trade idea: Sell a rally into the 3.00–3.02 supply (pivot/R1 cluster). Target a slip back into S1/S2 band.

1. Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe context (Daily): XRP topped at 3.65 (Jul 18), then formed a sequence of lower highs since early Aug. Aug 19 swing low printed at 2.8529, bounce attempts capped below the 38.2% retracement of the 3.65 → 2.85 leg (~3.158). That’s a shallow retracement and typically bearish. Recent closes (Aug 22–28) have compressed between ~3.08 and 2.95; today’s close-in-progress 2.9527 sits near the lower edge of the August range.
• Intermediate trend: Lower-high/lower-low micro-structure since Aug 14–16. Bulls have defended 2.85–2.90 twice; however, repeated failures at 3.07–3.12 (50% retrace of 3.318→2.853 sits near 3.085; 61.8% near 3.145) emphasize overhead supply.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24–30h): Sideways-to-down within 2.95–3.02. Repeated rejections near 3.01–3.02 (14:00–15:00, 12:00–14:00 prints), and a late-day sweep to 2.9516 (19:00) that failed to expand lower. This is classic mean-reversion behavior around a value area centered ~2.99.

2. Support/resistance and pivots

• Key daily levels from 08/27 session (H 3.0425, L 2.9643, C 2.9666):
  • Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = 2.9911
  • R1 ≈ 3.0180
  • S1 ≈ 2.9398
  • R2 ≈ 3.0694
  • S2 ≈ 2.9129
• Current price 2.9527 is below P (2.9911) and above S1 (2.9398), i.e., in the lower third of the pivot map. Expect rallies toward P/R1 to meet supply; first strong demand cluster appears again 2.94–2.91 (S1/S2).
• Horizontal SR map from recent swings:
  • Resistance: 3.00–3.02 (pivot/R1 confluence), 3.05, 3.08–3.12 (retracement + prior failure band), 3.26–3.33 (late Jul/early Aug shelf)
  • Support: 2.95 (local ledge), 2.94 (S1), 2.91–2.90 (S2/lower band), 2.85 (Aug 19 low; major swing)

3. Moving averages (Daily)

• 7-SMA ≈ 2.9915 (calc from last 7 closes). Price 2.9527 < 2.9915 → short-term pressure.
• 14-SMA ≈ 2.9952 (calc). Price below → confirms weak short-term momentum.
• 20-SMA (approx) ~3.02–3.05 from context. Price below 20-SMA and also likely below 12/26-EMA blend → short-term trend down, medium-term trend still up vs 50-SMA (estimated ~2.7–2.8). Net: pullback within a broader uptrend, but bears in control near-term.

4. Oscillators and momentum

• RSI(14d): ~45 (explicitly computed via recent gains/losses). Neutral-bearish; room to drop toward 40 without being oversold.
• Hourly RSI: hovering low-to-mid 40s during rejections near 3.00–3.02; no strong bullish divergence at the very edge, though daily shows mild improvement since Aug 19 (higher RSI low vs price holding above 2.85), supporting range rather than breakdown.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and likely sub-zero after the Aug 14–20 roll. Histogram flattening during consolidation (loss of downside momentum), but no bullish cross yet → rallies remain sellable until MACD turns.
• Stochastic (inferred): Oscillating mid/low; intraday resets near 2.95 give bounces to ~3.00, consistent with mean reversion.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14d): Contracting from the July spike; current day ranges ~0.07–0.10. Expect next 24h to see a contained 2.91–3.05 envelope absent a catalyst.
• Bollinger Bands (20d): Midline ~3.02 (approx), lower band ~2.90–2.94. Price is riding the lower half; taps near 2.94 often revert toward the midline (~3.00–3.02) before supply reasserts. This supports a fade-the-rally setup when price nears the midline.
• Keltner Channels: Price hugging the lower KC implies trend pressure remains down; any move to the EMA centerline is an opportunity to sell.

6. Volume and flow

• Daily volume declining from the July surge; August shows episodic spikes (Aug 22 ~10B) near resistance—notably, stronger volume on up-days into supply, then quick givebacks. That’s distributive behavior.
• Hourly prints show heavier ticks into the 3.00–3.02 area during the European morning and US open, followed by fades—implying sellers are active at/above 3.00.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Sideways to soft in August’s second half; no accumulation signature yet.

7. Ichimoku (Daily, approximated)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan (~2.99) below Kijun (~3.06); bearish alignment. Span A likely ~3.02 and Span B ~3.11, creating an overhead cloud. Until price reclaims/holds above Tenkan and then Kijun, rallies are suspect.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 3.650→2.853 range = 0.797. Key retracements from low: 38.2% ≈ 3.158, 50% ≈ 3.252, 61.8% ≈ 3.346. Price has failed to sustain above even 38.2%. That’s corrective behavior within a down leg from the July top.
• Recent swing: 3.318 (Aug 8) → 2.853 (Aug 19). 50% ≈ 3.085; 61.8% ≈ 3.145. Multiple rejections 3.07–3.12 confirm this zone as a hard cap for now.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel / bearish flag characteristics on daily since early August. Inside the channel, price is oscillating; today near the lower channel half. No clear reversal/engulfing on daily, more of a doji-range behavior intraday.
• Liquidity behavior: Frequent wicks around 2.95 and 3.01; clear stop pools above 3.02 and below 2.94. Expect stop-hunt behavior into one side then mean-revert—favoring a pop into 3.00–3.02 then fade toward 2.94.

10. Intraday VWAP/Market profile (qualitative)

• August VWAP likely clustered near ~3.02. Price below monthly VWAP → distribution bias. Today’s value area centered ~2.99; HVN around 3.00; LVN 2.94–2.95. Tactics: sell into HVN rejection.

11. Quantified levels and probability path (next 24h)

• Expected range: 2.912–3.018 with tails to 3.05 if a squeeze, or 2.90 if stops cascade.
• Session path idea:
  • First 6–10h: mean-revert higher toward 2.99–3.02 (pivot/R1).
  • Next 6–12h: rejection produces a drift to 2.95 then 2.94 (S1).
  • Final 6h: either base at 2.94 and close ~2.95–2.97, or brief stop-sweep to 2.912 (S2) before rebounding to ~2.95.
• Closing probability: 55% 2.94–2.98, 30% 2.98–3.02, 15% <2.94 or >3.02.

12. Risk management framework for the trade

• Entry rationale: Confluence of daily pivot P (2.991), R1 (3.018), BB midline (~3.02), and repeated intraday rejections 3.00–3.02. Shorting near 3.01 gives favorable RR into S1/S2.
• Invalidation: A strong hourly close above ~3.03–3.05 (above R1 and recapture of micro supply) would challenge the setup; above 3.07–3.08 breaks the 50% retrace cap and opens 3.12–3.15.
• Optional stop (not in order fields): ~3.038–3.055 depending on risk tolerance.
• Profit target: 2.936 aligns with S1/S2 band and the lower volatility envelope; reasonable for a 24h horizon.

13. Why not buy the dip here?

• Although price sits near the lower half of the bands and could revert to ~3.00, the asymmetry is better fading that bounce: downside momentum persists (RSI<50, price<short MAs, below Ichimoku cloud), and overhead supply thickens from 3.00 upward. Buying requires a reclaim and acceptance above 3.02–3.05, which we do not have.

14. Contingency scenarios

• Bull surprise: Clean break and hold above 3.02–3.05 on rising volume could extend to 3.07–3.12. If that occurs before entry, cancel the short.
• Bear extension: If 2.94 snaps early with momentum, next magnet is 2.912–2.90, then 2.85. Partial profits could be taken ahead of 2.91 if momentum accelerates.

Bottom line

• The cluster of technicals (pivot/R1 confluence at ~3.00–3.02, price below short MAs, RSI ~45, MACD negative, Ichimoku below cloud, repeated intraday rejections) favors selling a rally rather than buying weakness. Expect a pop toward 3.00–3.02 that fades into 2.94–2.93 within 24 hours.