XRP coiling at the 2.80 pivot — setup favors a mean-reversion pop toward 2.88 within 24 hours

Informational only, not financial advice. Short-term trading is risky; use your own risk controls.

Executive take: XRP is pressing a multi-session support shelf around 2.80 after a month-long pullback from July highs. Momentum is bearish but waning; several mean-reversion signals cluster here. Base case for the next 24 hours is a bounce toward 2.86–2.89 provided 2.80 holds. A clean break below 2.80 would likely probe 2.77–2.75.

1. Trend and structure (Daily)

• Market structure: Lower highs since 3.65 (7/18–7/21 area) and a sequence of marginal lower lows into 2.82–2.81; price compressing into a descending channel/wedge with a horizontal demand band at 2.80–2.82.
• 20D SMA ≈ 3.00 (calc from last 20 closes). Price 2.81 sits ~6.4% below: short-term downtrend and stretched from mean.
• 50D SMA (approx) ~2.85–2.90 given June 2.1–2.3 prints and July spike; price is hugging/just below it, consistent with a corrective retest.
• Elliott view: July peak completed a motive leg; decline since looks like an ABC correction. A ≈ 3.55→3.18, B ≈ 3.32, C ≈ 3.32→2.82 (C ≈ 1.3×A). That ratio and basing near 2.80 suggest the corrective leg is maturing.

2. Momentum and mean reversion (Daily)

• RSI(14) ≈ 39–40 (est.): bearish but not oversold; room for a relief pop before trend decision.
• Stochastic: Likely 20–30 zone; turning up would confirm a bounce attempt.
• MACD (12/26/9): Below zero, below signal, histogram contraction vs mid-August suggests bearish momentum is easing.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Basis ≈ 3.00; lower band ≈ 2.70; price riding the lower half near support, a typical mean-reversion setup toward 2.95–3.00 over multi-sessions; over 24h, 2.86–2.90 is reasonable.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA ±1.5 ATR): Midline ≈ 2.83–2.85; current price below midline and near lower envelope suggests reversion bias upward if 2.80 holds.
• CCI/RSI combo: CCI likely around -80/ -100; a cross back above -100 often precedes short-term bounces at key supports.
• ADX/DI: Trend present but softening (ADX ~20s), DI- > DI+ but convergence underway; conducive to consolidation/bounce.

3. Support/Resistance mapping and retracements

• Horizontal support: 2.80 (psychological and intraday defended), 2.77–2.75 (Aug 2 low 2.747), deeper 2.70 (BB lower band vicinity, 61.8% Fib zone border).
• Overhead resistance: 2.845–2.86 (intraday supply and R1/R2 pivots), 2.90–2.93 (gap/inefficiency and R2–R3 zone), 3.00–3.05 (20D SMA / Bollinger mid / prior consolidation).
• Fibonacci (June 21 low 2.06 → July 21 high 3.64): 38.2% ≈ 3.04, 50% ≈ 2.85, 61.8% ≈ 2.66. Price is oscillating around the 50% level; typical for basing before deciding next leg.
• Volume profile (qualitative): Heavy flows on down legs into 2.85–2.80, but without capitulation. Indicates buyers are active near 2.80; a flush through 2.80 would likely accelerate to 2.75 quickly before responsive bids.

4. Intraday (Hourly) read

• Range 8/31: 2.80–2.86, currently 2.808. Multiple tests of 2.80–2.81 with diminishing follow-through to the downside = seller exhaustion risk.
• Hourly MAs: Price toggling around 20/50 EMA cluster near 2.82; reclaiming and holding above 2.83 would invite a push to 2.85–2.87.
• Micro-structure: Descending wedge with flattening lows; a break >2.84–2.85 often triggers a squeeze toward 2.87–2.90 as resting offers are lifted.
• Intraday VWAP (approx today): ~2.83–2.84; price below VWAP now; mean reversion back to VWAP is base-case if 2.80 continues to defend.

5. Pivots (using 8/30 H/L/C: 2.8337/2.7713/2.8182)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.8077 (price is hovering here).
• R1 ≈ 2.8441; R2 ≈ 2.8701; R3 ≈ 2.9065.
• S1 ≈ 2.7818; S2 ≈ 2.7453. These levels align with the plan: buy near P/S1, target R1–R2.

6. Pattern, Wyckoff, and liquidity

• Wyckoff-esque: Potential accumulation at support with tests (spring risk below 2.80). A shallow spring and quick reclaim would favor markup to 2.86–2.90.
• Liquidity: Stops likely rest under 2.80 and 2.77; above, thin pockets between 2.85–2.88; once 2.85 breaks, momentum can carry to upper 2.8s.

7. Risk/Reward and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 2.80 → drift to 2.86–2.89, settling near 2.87–2.88.
• Bear case (30%): Clean break <2.80 → 2.77–2.75 sweep before rebound attempts.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong squeeze through 2.90 → quick tag 2.905–2.92; unlikely without broader market tailwind. Expected 24h range: ~2.78–2.89.

8. Confluence summary

• Support confluence: 2.80 pivot, 50% Fib (2.85 zone just above), lower half of Bollinger/Keltner, repeated intraday defenses.
• Momentum: Bearish but stabilizing; several indicators at bounce-friendly levels.
• Trend context: Countertrend long aiming for mean reversion into nearby resistance offers the best short-term R:R.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy dips into 2.80–2.81 with a target in the 2.86–2.89 zone over 24h.
• Invalidation (for your own risk plan): Sustained acceptance below 2.80 or a 1H close <2.78 weakens the setup and risks a slide toward 2.75.

Prediction for next 24h: Mildly bullish toward 2.86–2.89 if 2.80 holds; otherwise a quick probe to 2.77–2.75 before reverting.